climate change in pakistan essay css

United States Institute of Peace

Home ▶ Publications

Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency

A whole-of-government approach is needed now before climate change exacerbates conflict in the country.

By: Jumaina Siddiqui

Publication Type: Analysis

Pakistan is in the midst of a terrible heatwave , with the temperatures in parts of the country exceeding 120 F. April was the hottest month in the past 61 years, until May came along and saw warmer temperatures. At least 65 people have reportedly died due to the heatwave, but the actual numbers are certainly higher, and it’s caused massive flooding and infrastructure damage in Gilgit-Baltistan, water shortages in Karachi and broader Sindh province, and placed greater demands on the country’s weak electrical grid. Despite monsoon rains beginning in late June — causing at least 77 deaths — many parts of the country still swelter. Pakistan should treat these climate disasters as a full-fledged national security emergency before they stoke conflict that adds further stress amid the country’s other numerous challenges.

Climate Challenges Could Stoke Conflict

For the past 20 years, Pakistan has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index, with 10,000 fatalities due to climate-related disasters and financial losses amounting to about $4 billion from 173 extreme weather events. These challenges threaten to spark climate-related conflict over resources — such as water — that have become scarce due to climate change impacts. Climate-related disasters like floods, heatwaves or tsunamis can also exacerbate tensions among groups who already have a history of conflict. Any of these scenarios would be a serious threat to Pakistan and have serious ramifications for any government in the immediate aftermath of a climate disaster or as part of efforts to mitigate future disasters.

This year’s heatwave further exacerbated food insecurity, which can undermine peace and stability, according to the United Nations. Scorching temperatures have damaged entire orchards and hurt wheat production across Pakistan, adversely impacting the livelihoods of many small farmers and rendering formerly arable land unusable for agriculture in some parts of the country. Already facing wheat shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Pakistan’s domestic wheat production this year will be reduced by 10% .

During Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to the United States to attend a United Nations meeting on food security, he highlighted that the country is under threat of food, water and energy insecurity. Unfortunately, it is not just a threat anymore but a reality for Pakistan. Combined with soaring inflation and the country’s continued political instability, this is a recipe for disaster. All these trends are potential catalysts that could trigger climate-induced migration from rural areas to urban centers as Pakistanis seek employment and stable living conditions. This puts an additional strain on massive cities and urban infrastructure that already cannot manage their current population levels.

A Mixed Response

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has also taken notice of Pakistan’s climate change vulnerabilities. In a recent decision, the court noted that that in urban areas in particular, relevant government authorities should take into consideration “adaptation, climate resiliency and sustainability…[as] they are essential to actualize the fundamental rights of the people.”

While some subnational government agencies have been more effective in preparing for climate-related disasters, other have not. In Gilgit Baltistan, the heatwave caused a massive glacial flood, but thanks to continuous monitoring by the relevant local government authorities, people living in vulnerable locations were relocated to safer places before the floods. After the 2020 floods in Karachi, the provincial government decided to address the causes that lead to the severe flooding after the waters subsided. However, their heavy-handed actions — such as tearing down settlements along the nalas, or waterways, that should have drained the flood waters without considering proper plans to resettle or adequately compensate those displaced from the settlements — led to a number of protests from both communities and civil society activists.

It took this heatwave for the Sindh government to notice and take action against the water mafias controlling the city, even though this has been a problem for a decade or more. The water issue connects to the larger issue of natural resource usage and extraction throughout Pakistan, in particular the availability of water, whether it is for agricultural purposes or for consumption. The current heatwave has created an acute water crisis in Sindh, leading to inter-provincial tensions with Punjab — and it’s unclear if there is a resolution in sight .

Pakistan has tried to play a significant role on the international stage, participating in COP26 and signing the global methane pledge. The country is one of the world’s major methane emitters , predominately through its agricultural sector. How this commitment will impact this sector more broadly remains to be seen, especially as Pakistan seeks international financing to meet this commitment. While climate-smart agricultural practices generally save money in the long run, it is important to understand how these changes would impact large-scale farmers and their workers, the latter of whom are one of the most economically disadvantaged groups in country. 

The previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had a strong advocate in Malik Amin Aslam, who served as the special advisor to the prime minster on climate change. The PTI government made significant strides in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change such as committing to having 60% of energy coming from “clean” sources and to having electric vehicles making up 30% of the market by 2030.

The current coalition government, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has smartly continued the trend of strong leadership on climate change by appointing Senator Sherry Rehman , a member of the Pakistan Peoples Party, as minster for climate change. While leadership on this issue is imperative, it is equally important that there is a tangible and sustained collaboration and coordination between the national and provincial governments to develop a roadmap to address the impacts of climate change on the country. Because of devolution in Pakistan, issues like water, food and agriculture, and environment are ones where the provinces have the authority to pass governing legislation, while climate change is a federal issue. This disconnect must be resolved through a more robust system for interprovincial coordination. 

What Pakistan Needs

The PML-N government’s announcement to set up a climate change task force in response to the heatwave is a step in the right direction. But if Pakistan is serious about tackling climate change and investing in mitigation and adaption efforts, what is needed is an overarching framework to coordinate this response. One recent model to look to is Pakistan’s National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), which led the country’s COVID-19 response. A climate-focused NCOC would ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address the impacts of climate change on the country and appropriate coordination takes place that builds political consensus. This would require relevant provincial and national bodies to come together to work develop a common action plan to address the internal impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the NCOC would spearhead the implementation  of Pakistan’s National Determined Contributions under the Paris Accords because some of these efforts would need provincial buy-in.   

It is unclear if Pakistan’s new climate change task force will carry the same weight as the COVID-19 NCOC. But if it is to succeed, then learning from the successes and failures of the NCOC model is imperative. The COVID-19 NCOC took a whole-of-government approach to tackle the crisis head on. In the beginning there was significant tension between the federal and provincial governments on measures such as the timing and scope of lockdowns and whether provinces had the legal mandate to dictate how businesses functioned during the pandemic. However, in the interest of combatting the pandemic, a delicate understanding between and cooperation among political parties in power in different provinces did eventually occur. 

National and provincial governments are working in lockstep right when it comes to energy conservation. But this cooperation will need to be sustained over the long haul. Unlike COVID-19 where we have vaccines and other mitigation tools, climate change is a significantly more complex challenge that will require long-term coordination and commitment. Almost PKR 10 billion (approximately $50 million) has been allocated to the Ministry of Climate Change under the 2022-23 national budget, a decrease from the PKR 14 billion in the 2021-22 national budget. This change is likely due to the economic situation in the country, but still shows a commitment to the issue and continuity between governments as the PTI government’s signature “10 Billion Tree Tsunami” project received an earmark. 

Alongside these domestic efforts, both the United States and Pakistan should hold a second meeting of the U.S.-Pakistan Climate and Environment Working Group, following the first meeting held in September 2021. This working group could serve as the springboard to begin repairing and resetting the tenuous U.S.-Pakistan relationship as addressing climate change and promoting regional stability is in the interest of both nations.   

All mainstream political parties agree that climate change is threat to Pakistan’s social and economic stability. Addressing climate change in Pakistan truly requires a “ war-footing ” and a whole-of-government approach. Otherwise, the consequences of inaction or improper action could foster greater turmoil and strife for all levels of Pakistani society. 

Related Publications

What Does Further Expansion Mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Thursday, May 30, 2024

By: Bates Gill;   Carla Freeman, Ph.D.

Last week, foreign ministers from member-states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan. The nine-member SCO — made up of China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — represents one of the largest regional organizations in the world. And with the SCO’s annual heads-of-state summit slated for early July, the ministers’ meeting offers an important glimpse into the group’s priorities going forward. USIP’s Bates Gill and Carla Freeman examine how regional security made its way to the top of the agenda, China’s evolving role in Central Asia and why SCO expansion has led to frustrations among member states.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

Asfandyar Mir on Balancing Counterterrorism and Strategic Competition

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

As terror threats emanating from Afghanistan and Pakistan rise, many may see counterterrorism as a distraction from other U.S. priorities, such as competition with China and Russia. But investment in counterterrorism can work “preventively, to shield the strategic competition agenda,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.

Type: Podcast

Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Final Report

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

By: USIP Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan

When announcing the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in April 2021, President Joe Biden identified counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan as an enduring and critical US national security interest. This priority became even more pronounced after the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, the discovery of al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul less than a year later, and the increasing threat of the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS-K) from Afghanistan. However, owing to the escalating pressures of strategic competition with China and Russia, counterterrorism has significantly dropped in importance in the policy agenda.

Type: Report

Violent Extremism

Why Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan Still Matters

Thursday, May 9, 2024

By: Ambassador Anne Patterson;  Tricia Bacon, Ph.D.;  Ambassador P. Michael McKinley;  Joshua White, Ph.D.;  Brian Finucane, Ph.D.

From wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to rising tensions in the South China Sea, there is no shortage of crises to occupy the time and attention of U.S. policymakers. But three years after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat of terrorism emanating from South Asia remains strong and policymakers need to be more vigilant. Indeed, at the end of March, an Afghanistan-based affiliate of ISIS launched a devastating attack outside of Moscow, killing over 140 people.

Global Policy ;  Violent Extremism

• climate change

Pakistan Must Adapt to Climate Change. But Who Will Help Us?

T he record-breaking mega-flood in August 2022 that impacted 33 million people in Pakistan brought home to the world the urgency and scale of the climate crisis afflicting developing countries. At the 27th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP 27), it triggered widespread worry among other countries about the state of preparedness many will have to gear up to—even if, like Pakistan, they remain negligible emitters of the greenhouse gases. In 2022, Pakistan’s pavilion at Sharm-al-Shaikh positioned not just the global connectedness of the crisis by pointing out that “what goes on in Pakistan will not stay in Pakistan,” it also became the hub of the climate finance deficits that are growing exponentially in inverse proportion to global emissions. This has led, in part, to the creation of the Loss and Damage (L&D) fund at the end of the conference.

Yet as G20’s energy ministers remained unable to agree on a roadmap to reduce emissions by July 2023 (even as COP28 approaches) the realization set in that many of us will remain in the frontline of the burn. Pakistan has been home for three successive years where on at least one day temperatures reached 53°C (127.4°F). The hope that we were working with needed a home-grown plan. As heatwaves coupled with slow global action transformed the earth into a red planet in the summer of 2023, Pakistan launched a National Adaptation Plan in July to chart a strategic whole-of government approach with a framework toolkit that allows it to protect its population.

For instance, the province of Sindh, which to this day stands transformed by the 2022 deluge, and recently saw evacuations in the coastal areas from cyclonic activity in a warming Arabian Sea, began its rehabilitation process by transferring new land titles to the women of afflicted households. In all such crises, the most vulnerable always remain the poorest, the women and children, impacted disproportionately by multiple crises of food insecurity, displacement, and disease.

That said, while Sindh is struggling to cope with a cascade of disasters, it will need not just the National Adaptation Plan, but the resources to transform municipal, rural, and agri-water governance for the dangerous decade ahead—all of which needs time, capacity, and liquidity. Similarly, the province of Balochistan has already declared a flood emergency, while the northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is impacted too by a gathering storm.

Read More: ‘I Lost My Son in This Water a Few Days Ago.’ Photos of Pakistan’s Catastrophic Flooding

For countries drowning in extreme weather, exogenous shocks, and high public debt, where will this money come from? Especially in the amount that the World Bank in its 2022 Country Climate and Development Report calculated for Pakistan: a staggering $348 billion by 2030. This is just the number to stay resilient—to keep our heads above water and build sustainability into a climate-adaptive future. All this while a summer of fresh flooding and melting glaciers redefines our lives, our social and economic experiences, into a lifelong struggle to rebuild with resilience while we fight the climate devastations wreaking havoc again.

Who is coming to the rescue of such countries? While U.N. has been in the frontline of immediate relief, even its flash appeals globally remain under-funded. Structural reforms involve pain. We are willing to undergo more pain, especially for enabling resilience, but some amount of change has to come from the Bretton Woods system—the monetary management structure that controls the U.S., Canada, Australia, Western Europe, and Japan—meant to lead the world out of egregious inequality and now climate distress. The financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in developing countries has enlarged from $2.5 trillion in 2019 to $4.2 trillion in 2023. Add to it the cost of realizing climate goals, and the amount reaches a whopping $5.2 trillion annually .

Our National Adaption Plan (NAP) is designed to build climate-adaptation goals into every aspect of development planning. The international financial system must do the same. As we approach COP 28, the Global Goal on Adaptation remains under-capitalized, while the L&D fund is yet to start functioning. The U.N. Secretary General António Guterres made detailed recommendations in a press conference on July 27 that countries must operationalize and scale up the funding of renewables. Donor countries have been bilaterally supportive but they too need to fulfill their commitment to provide 0.7% of their Gross National Income as development assistance. Multilateral Development Banks should be recapitalized and be enabled to provide portfolio and budgetary support to developing countries, rather than project finance only. They should vastly expand grant and concessional lending to developing countries, enhance the vote and the voice of the developing countries in both International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and link the distribution of new IMF SDRs to development and climate goals.

The transition to a sustainable global economy will require an investment of around $1.5 trillion each year in the developing countries. Business as usual will certainly not work. A large part of this funding pool will have to come from the private sector, which will need new structural incentives to bring their leverage and capital to the business of bending development history. Vulnerable countries cannot attract investment in times of epochal climate distress, but they do need more than band-aid financing. We now need transformational milestones to building global consensus for a financing architecture that can face the 21st century’s rapidly changing conditions that challenge resilience while fueling crippling inequalities.

Critical assistance for the most climate vulnerable countries must not further burden the poor. Actions will be as important as pledges and plans at this point. A real message of change from global leaders would contribute substantially to the success of the forthcoming SDG Summit in September and COP28 in December, and restore trust in global cooperation and international solidarity. Our people are looking to us with renewed hope for action. We must not fail them.

More Must-Reads from TIME

• Melinda French Gates Is Going It Alone
• Lai Ching-te Is Standing His Ground
• Do Less. It’s Good for You
• There's Something Different About Will Smith
• What Animal Studies Are Revealing About Their Minds—and Ours
• What a Hospice Nurse Wants You to Know About Death
• 15 LGBTQ+ Books to Read for Pride
• Want Weekly Recs on What to Watch, Read, and More? Sign Up for Worth Your Time

Contact us at [email protected]

Turning Concern into Action: Understanding Climate Change Attitudes in Pakistan

Juan d. barón.

Pakistan is grappling with the profound impacts of climate change, such as shifting weather patterns and catastrophic floods (Baron et all, 2022) . Unfortunately, these impacts are projected to escalate, with forecasts suggesting that climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution may cause Pakistan's GDP to shrink by 18-20% by 2050 . This alarming statistic underscores the need to address climate change and mitigate its effects on people and their livelihoods. Even though developing countries like Pakistan may not be the primary contributors to climate change, acknowledging and confronting its fallout is indispensable, especially for combatting pressing local issues like air pollution and smog.

The necessity to adapt and the implications of actions for local issues make it essential to understand people's prioritization of addressing climate change, their trusted sources of information, and the motivating factors behind their actions. To answer these questions, we conducted a phone survey of a random sample of 2,000 parents in Pakistan who have access to a cell phone and have school-aged children using random digit dialing. The key findings have been released in a recent policy note .

The results of the survey show that most people, regardless of gender or education level, are highly concerned about the impact of climate change on children, with over 80 percent expressing concern. The survey shows that although people are worried about climate change and its effects, it is not always their top priority. When asked to choose the top three issues facing Pakistan, less than a quarter of participants chose climate change. This suggests that while people are worried about climate change, it may not be their priority issue.

In the survey, when a random subset of people were presented with economic issues first, there was a 4-percentage point (statistically significant) rise in the likelihood of individuals considering climate change among top three issues of Pakistan, compared to when social issues were presented first. This prioritization of climate change when seen as an economic issue is more pronounced among individuals with higher educational attainment (see Figure 1).

How knowledgeable are people about climate information and whom do they trust?

The survey looked at people's knowledge of and trust in different sources of information about climate change. Those with higher levels of education are more informed about climate change.  For example, only 47 percent of illiterate people believe that the earth is getting warmer due to human activity, compared to 60 percent of those with higher education or above. Findings also show significant distrust overall in traditional sources of information, with the least educated being the most likely to distrust these sources. Among these sources, news media leads as the most important source of information while less than 1/5 trust scientists. This highlights the lack of trust in traditional climate change leadership, including the possibility of misinformation from the media. This poses a significant challenge to educating people about climate change.

How are people addressing climate change in Pakistan?

Families want their children to learn about climate change, but they are relying on the schools to fulfill this role. Almost all households in the survey said they support education about climate in schools.  However, less than half talk about it at home. This shows that schools could play a role in promoting conversations and educating families about climate change.

The survey reveals that, despite frequently adopting money-saving measures such as turning off lights (76%) to combat climate change, people exhibit less enthusiasm for endorsing more impactful actions like using public transport (36%) or cutting down on meat consumption. Reducing the disconnect between concern and action requires understanding people's beliefs e.g. education and awareness campaigns highlighting practical benefits, like savings or health improvements.

Three crucial insights emerge from the survey findings for policymakers. Firstly, economic aspects drive people's concern about climate change. Secondly, skepticism exists, especially among less educated individuals relying on traditional information sources. Lastly, even concerned individuals might not act due to inconvenience or lifestyle changes. Policymakers should focus on removing barriers and offering economic incentives to encourage active participation in climate action.

• Climate Change

Senior Economist, Education Global Practice, World Bank Group

Economist, South Asia

Join the Conversation

• Share on mail
• comments added

• Get Involved

Resilience, Environment and Climate Change

The cumulative effects of climate change directly impact the economy, costing the country an estimated USD 38 billion annually (WB and ADB 2021). If this trend continues, it will reverse human development gains made over the last decade. Already, in 2020 Pakistan ranked 154 out of 189 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index, down two places from 152 the previous year.

Addressing the threats posed by climate change is a priority for the UNDP. At the same time, Pakistan recognizes that climate change affects everyone differently and that narrowing the gender gap is essential to building climate preparedness and resilience for all. If Pakistan is to tackle the climate challenges that lie ahead, it cannot do so without all stakeholders' full and equal participation.

people in GB

accessed health services – 17,825 youth, 250 people in extreme poverty, 1385 women, 27 people with disabilities

of land in Sindh freed of encroachment and brought under the control of the forest department

spoke up about their needs through the Youth Conversations platform

Climate Resilience

Weather-related disasters have become frequent, intense, and unpredictable leading to the destruction of lives, vital infrastructures, homes, and businesses, making climate change threatening and catastrophic. Severe droughts are stifling rural livelihoods. Rising sea levels put low-lying areas at risk of floods. Ecosystems are being fragmented or eliminated, and many species are in decline or being pushed into extinction. These frequent and unpredictable changes in weather conditions severely affect food security, livelihoods, health, clean water, energy, medicines, and other ecosystem services for people, especially the marginalized and vulnerable communities, given their limited ability to cope. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would have to be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 to prevent global warming above 1.5C. As per the worldwide climate index, Pakistan ranks 8th most vulnerable country to the impacts of climate change. The variability in climate and weather patterns has increased the frequency of disasters which undermines development in Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan's economy remains highly vulnerable to future threats posed by climate change. 

Addressing the threats posed by climate change is a priority for UNDP. At the same time, UNDP recognizes that climate change affects everyone differently and that narrowing the inequalities is essential to building climate preparedness and resilience for all. If the country is to tackle the climate challenges that lie ahead, it cannot do so without all stakeholders' full and equal participation. 

UNDP is also working closely with the government to explore the potential of Blue Economy in Pakistan.

Institutional and Policy Support

To steer Pakistan toward inclusive and resilient climate development, UNDP is implementing projects to assist the Government of Pakistan in environmental sustainability at the national, provincial, and local levels by moving forward with its multiple thematic areas. 

UNDP focuses on to help governments accelerate progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing tools that will help identify critical constraints to progress and focus on development objectives that are more relevant to Pakistan's context. Furthermore, UNDP provides support to the Government of Pakistan and offers an integrated package of policy support services that are aligned with its programming priorities. Policy support covers a wide range of areas, including climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, access to sustainable energy, sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems, oceans governance, and promotion of peaceful and inclusive societies, poverty reduction, inclusive growth and productive employment, gender equality and the empowerment of women, and health access to water and sanitation. 

UNDP is strengthening and enabling the Government of Pakistan to strategize NDC planning, relevant policies, and its implementation. Furthermore, UNDP has also aided the government in developing, revising, and implementing its National Climate Change policy. 

Circular Economy/ Solid Waste Management 

The UNDP promotes a circular economy-based approaches to the existing waste value chain. Instead of waste being collected for disposal only, the UNDP facilitates diverting major chunk of the accumulated trash from disposal sites towards various recycling practices. The UNDP creates multiple links currently missing in the value chain: recycling points, where the waste will be sorted for subsequent recycling, and composting facilities. The UNDP will also research and operationalize new recycling technologies to strengthen existing recycling industries. Successful pilot models with the private sector have been initiated.

Protected Area Management and Eco-Tourism

UNDP seeks to contribute to long-term global environmental impacts, including the recovery of wildlife populations, habitat conservation, and agro-biodiversity by managing protected areas. To counter the threats to biodiversity and overcome the barriers to effective management of protected areas, UNDP support the government in various initiatives that enhances its capacity for biodiversity conservation and effective protected area management; it also includes the implementation of various measures to reduce the illegal wildlife trade and poaching. 

In the past, UNDP has worked extensively on protected area management to develop a system in the face of emerging challenges, including climate change threats, rising demands for tourism, increasing demand for natural resource goods and services, and the recognition of customary practices in protected areas. One of the critical interventions was the delineation, mapping, and management planning for the biodiversity corridor between the two national parks, the CKNP (Central Karakoram National Park) and DNP (Deosai National Park); the first of its kind in Pakistan. 

Furthermore, UNDP collaborates with the local community and support local organizations to provide alternate livelihood options in the form of improved climate resilient farming, water management practices, better livestock and pastures, and the capacity building of stakeholder institutions.

Climate Promise - II

Glaciers and Students

Balochistan SDGs (BSDG) Accelerated Delivery

Accelerated response to HIV through effective prevention, treatment, care and support interventions for Key Populations and surveillance in high-risk areas

Eco-Tourism & Camping Villages Project

Policy Support Programme

Merged Areas Governance Project

Reforms And Innovation In Government For High Performance

Stabilization and Inclusive Development Programme (SIDP)

Strengthening Electoral and Legislative Processes

Supporting Rule of Law for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies in Pakistan (Amn-o-Insaf)

Policy support for mainstreaming the Sustainable Development Goals in Pakistan

Pakistan Urgently Needs Significant Investments in Climate Resilience to Secure its Economy and Reduce Poverty

ISLAMABAD, November 10, 2022 —This year’s heatwave and devastating floods are a reminder that climate change-induced disasters can significantly set back Pakistan’s development ambitions and its ability to reduce poverty. These disasters have caused more than 1,700 deaths and displaced more than 8 million people. The damage to infrastructure, assets, crops, and livestock has also been massive, with more than $30 billion in damages and economic losses. The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Pakistan released today concludes that the country needs fundamental shifts in its development path and policies, requiring substantial investments in people-centric climate adaptation and resilience, that will require international support.

“The recent flooding and humanitarian crisis provide a wake-up call for urgent action to prevent further devastation to the people of Pakistan and its economy due to climate change,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “Accelerated climate actions can protect the economy from shocks and secure more sustainable and inclusive growth in Pakistan.”

The CCDR notes that the combined risks of extreme climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution are projected to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by at least 18 to 20% by 2050. This will stall progress on economic development and poverty reduction.

“If we want to tackle climate change, we need to prioritize investing in adaptation to help prepare Pakistan for future climate-related calamities, which are growing in frequency and intensity,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, IFC Regional Vice President for Middle East, Central Asia, Türkiye, Afghanistan and Pakistan . “ With the right policy frameworks, Pakistan has the opportunity to attract private investment to build its resilience, particularly in sectors such as water management, agriculture, urban infrastructure, municipal services, and housing.”

To improve adaptation to climate change and avoid high costs, the report recommends five priority transitions:

1. Transforming the Agri-Food System: Productivity in the agri-food system – the largest employer, particularly for poor and vulnerable households – has been plummeting due to the degradation of land, overuse of chemical inputs and water, and lack of research. And yields are projected to drop another 50% by 2050. To bolster rural incomes and strengthen food and water security, Pakistan needs to repurpose environmentally damaging subsidies, promote climate-smart and regenerative agriculture and livestock systems, and prioritize ecosystem restoration.

2. Building Resilient and Livable Cities: Pakistan’s population living in urban areas, already highly exposed to pollution and climate change, will increase from 37% in 2020 to 60% in 2050. To ensure cities become more liveable, urgent reforms are needed for more integrated land use planning and increased investments in municipal services and in energy efficiency and clean transportation. To this end, strong municipal governments, and the expansion of city finances via property taxation are critical.

3. Accelerating a Just Transition to Sustainable Energy and Low-carbon Transport: The energy sector is a critical enabler of economic development and poverty reduction. However, it is a huge drain on public finances and foreign exchange reserves and a major contributor to GHG emissions. Pakistan must prioritize reducing the cost of generation including through energy efficiency, ensuring cost-reflective tariffs and improved targeting of subsidies, while addressing technical and collection losses in transmission and distribution. Scaled-up investment in mass transit can avoid locking in highly polluting modes of transport.

4. Strengthening Human Capital to Achieve Sustained and Equitable Development and Climate Resilience: To address its human capital crisis, Pakistan needs to improve the management of water, sanitation, and hygiene, which is the main driver of child stunting, and reduce high fertility rates. Pakistan should also ensure universal access to quality education and expand its social-protection system by improving benefits, particularly for those at the highest risk.

5. Aligning Financing Policies, Incentives, and Institutions to Support Scale-up of Climate Actions: Implementing these policies and executing a climate-resilient and low-carbon development agenda will require total investment needs that amount to around 10% of the cumulative GDP up to 2030. Accelerating the ongoing reforms to expand domestic revenue mobilization, including raising new municipal and property taxes, as well as improving efficiency and targeting of subsidies for agriculture and energy while protecting the most vulnerable will help to finance a large part of the needed investments. Yet, this will not be enough. A comprehensive financing strategy, involving greater private sector involvement and significant international support will be essential to complement Pakistan’s own commitment towards resilient and inclusive development.

“Foreign private capital can play an important role in addressing the climate change challenges in Pakistan,”  said   Ethiopis Tafara, MIGA Vice President and Chief Risk, Legal and Administrative Officer.  “Sustaining flows of foreign direct investment that support climate mitigation and adaptation will contribute toward financing Pakistan’s low-carbon transition.”

Pakistan is not a significant contributor to global warming, but it is on a high-growth trajectory of carbon emissions linked to fossil fuel use. This is also a source of the country’s chronic fiscal stress and worsening air pollution. Therefore, climate actions that bring co-benefits to both adaptation and mitigation and contribute to improving development outcomes should have the highest priority.

--------------------------------------------------

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports

The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support a low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners, and enable engagement with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. To learn more about cookies, click here .

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List
• J Environ Public Health
• v.2022; 2022

Climate Change and Water Crises in Pakistan: Implications on Water Quality and Health Risks

Waseem ishaque.

1 Director Area Study Centre (China), NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Rida Tanvir

2 Department of International Relations, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Mudassir Mukhtar

3 HoD Media and Communication Studies, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Associated Data

The data used to support the findings of this study are included within this article.

Pakistan is vulnerable and most affected by adverse impacts of climate change. The study examines the impact of climate change on Pakistan during the year 2022, resulting into unprecedented heatwave and drought in summers followed by the abnormal rains and floods during monsoon season. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which has been devastated by both drought and floods. While the flood water is gradually receding, the stagnant contaminated water is causing several health risks for the inhabitants. This research argues that water security is the emerging national security challenge for Pakistan. The article investigates the status of water availability vis-a-vis the burgeoning population, agriculture, and other uses of water. Impact of abnormal melting of glaciers, nonavailability of dams for storage of rainwater, and lack of smart means for agriculture water have been examined to empirically validate the arguments.

1. Introduction

Climate change has become international buzzword today and it is “no longer an unfamiliar term, which can be comprehended through personal knowledge, experience, and interactions” [ 1 ]. The phenomenon of climate change is largely attributed to human induced actions, more specifically in terms of emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [ 2 ]. Therefore, the phenomena of climate change are producing many threats on the Earth surface, ranging from droughts, heavy precipitation, and heatwaves to unprecedented tropical cyclones [ 3 ]. All these disasters have varying degree of impact over different geographical zones, resulting into environmental, health, economic, and social impact. There is no denying the fact that the world we live in today is far more vulnerable and affected by the negative impacts of climate change. However, the greatest health impact is being witnessed in the countries which have least share in greenhouse emissions [ 4 ]. There is also strong realization to attend to climate emergency, which is causing water security issues around the globe, and threatens food security, agricultural yield, food supply, and prices with serious implications on sustainable development, poverty, and inequality. The UNICEF warns about the availability and use of water in a nicely crafted statement that “the world needs to get water smart, and everyone has to realize that they have a role to play, and we cannot afford to wait” [ 5 ]. The “climate change is happening right now, and its effects are being felt around the world” [ 6 ].

Pakistan is vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change, therefore, susceptible to unusual weather patterns, which can create strategic challenges [ 7 ]. The rising temperatures are causing rapid melting of glaciers in northern areas and unusual rains as seen in monsoon this year have created mayhem through floods, unprecedented in Pakistan's history in last 30 years. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated that Pakistan is facing “the unrelenting effects of epochal levels of rains and flooding” [ 8 ]. The men and material losses are enormous and therefore, Pakistan is likely to face water crisis, food shortages, and serious implications for human security. Reacting to the recent flood situation in Pakistan, the Finance Minister Mr Miftah Ismail stated that “Pakistan is dealing with the worst effects of the climate change, which has caused over US$ 30 billion loss to Pakistan's economy and displacing 33 million people” [ 9 ]. This study explores the impacts of climate change on the availability, usage, and storage of water in Pakistan. The drought and floods of year 2022 have been taken as case study for analyzing the impacts of climate change across Pakistan by sampling both rural and urban areas. Figure 1 shows the sectoral usage of available water in Pakistan.

Sectoral distribution of water consumption in Pakistan.

2. Materials and Methods

The year 2022 is unprecedented in Pakistan's history of last three decades. The summers produced extreme temperatures which resulted in unusual melting of glaciers in northern areas of Pakistan resulting in partial collapse of bridge near Hassanabad in Hunza [ 10 ] as shown in Figure 2 .

Partial collapse of Hassanabad bridge.

Later, the exceptional monsoon rains produced extraordinary floods across the country, with huge men and material losses. The evolving trends indicate that Pakistan is most vulnerable to climate change. The floods have devastated the agriculture, livestock, and infrastructure. The loss to national economy is estimated at US$ 30 billion [ 11 ]. The survey and data analyses of past two and half decades reveal that Pakistan confronted from absolute dry and drought situations to devastating floods to the extent of witnessing both phenomenon in one calendar year as happening in the ongoing year 2022. The study has been completed by considering drought and floods data from primary and secondary sources with particular focus on this year. The field visits to rural and urban areas of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Baluchistan were conducted for obtaining the first-hand information and data on the impacts of flood situation. The relevant officials in the ministry of climate change and meteorological offices were also interviewed and their views have been incorporated in the study for developing a comprehensive picture, conducting rationale analyses, and arriving at workable findings. The study is very contemporary and relevant and expected to provide valuable policy guidelines to relevant government ministries in Pakistan as they are grappling with the ongoing flood situation and rehabilitation process. Figure 3 highlights the vulnerability of Pakistan to climate change risks in the global context, which has been explored further in the study to empirically prove the vulnerabilities and risks.

Climate risk indexing and Pakistan's vulnerability [ 12 ].

3. Findings

3.1. deciphering the impact of climate change on pakistan.

Climate remains the most debated yet least addressed issue for decades. World leaders have often joined heads to tackle this global phenomenon but with little to no success. From motivational speeches to documentaries and movies on the effects of climate change on the Earth has been narrated time and again but to no avail [ 13 ]. The developed countries remain aloof of devastating effects of greenhouse gas emission is causing to the ozone layer. The growing depletion of the ozone layer is resulting in increased Ultraviolet (UV) radiations level on the surface of Earth, which has detrimental impact on human health resulting in cancer and weak immune system [ 14 ]. These UV radiations have devastating effect on the agriculture sector as well due to low yield of the crops [ 15 ]. Scientists have been talking about the infamous “black hole” in the Antarctic region for years. But the recent research in the year 2022 has discovered a hole in the Tropics (Tropics are the regions of the Earth near the equator) which is seven times bigger than the Antarctic region [ 16 ]. The more alarming situation is that, despite all this, the industrialized countries are less concerned by the deteriorating ozone and increase in global warming. Various protocols and initiatives like Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen accord, and Paris accord had been initiated by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Due to the Sovereign status of the global order, these agreements were not a binding, therefore, the industrial powers contributing the most carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases to the environment withdrew from these accords as it did not serve their economic interests. The major global contributors of the CO 2 emissions are given in Figure 4 :

10 most polluted countries as of 2020 [ 17 ].

Figure 4 gives an account for the 10 most polluted countries in the world as of 2020. However, China remains leading in that aspect in the year 2022 as well. United States remain on second number with 4.4 billion tons of CO 2 emissions, while India is third producing 2.3 billion tons of CO 2 .

According to Figure 5 , the above countries might not appear as the top 10 global CO 2 contributors, but they fall in the top 10 per capita CO 2 contributors, due to their large-scale reliance on oil and small number of populations. United Nations Secretary General Mr Antonio Gutters paid an official visit to Pakistan on 9-10 September 2002 to show solidarity to flood victims and assess the devastations through field visits and official briefings. He stated that the “nature has attacked Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global emissions” [ 19 ] while facing the consequences of developed countries emissions and pollution of climate. He further added that “it was outrageous that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was being put on the back burner, today it is Pakistan and tomorrow, it could be your country” [ 20 ], pointing toward industrialized countries. The Global Climate Index (GCI) 2021 has also vindicated Pakistan's vulnerabilities to climate risks as shown in Table 1 below, where Pakistan stands number 8 [ 21 ] in the vulnerability Index. The analysis presented highlights the severe impacts of climate change on Pakistan ranging from extreme heat and drought to dreadful floods. [ 22 ].

10 most polluting countries per capita 2022 [ 18 ].

Global climate index 2021 [ 22 ].

3.2. Examination of Water Calamities in Pakistan

Water is an essential need for ecosystem and human life. In recent times, it has been a growing concern that “precious blue” is becoming inadequate resource for future of human survival [ 23 ]. The amount of fresh water has remained constant on Earth surface since last 100 years; however, the access to water resources is unbalanced [ 24 ] with the rapid population growth, urbanization, and deforestation. Similarly, other issues, such as technological waste, growing industrialization, global warming, and climate change, all are among the key contributing factors for extreme water scarcity [ 25 ]. Although the water scarcity has emerged as a global challenge today, it has severely hit the underdeveloped countries like Pakistan with serious implications on all sectors. Pakistan stands among top 10 severely “high water risk countries” with agriculture as most affected sector [ 26 ]. Moreover, roughly 80% of the population is facing grave shortage of water during at least 1 month in a year which is very alarming. Under scarce surface water, ground water resources (last resort to water supply) are being over utilized. If appropriate measures are not initiated in time with “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approach, the situation would get worse in time to come and the entire country will face the severe crises of water scarcity by 2025, by most projections “Pakistan could run dry” [ 27 ]. The evolving situation has serious implications on the national security of Pakistan, as it will create challenges for sustainable agriculture production which contributes around 23% of Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and creates job opportunities for around 42% of population [ 28 ]. According to the report published by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Pakistan ranks 14th out of 17 very high-risk countries affected by water scarcity, as more than 1/3rd of available water is wasted due to bad management [ 29 ]. Since 1962, after the formalization of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with India, per inhabitant water availability has plummeted from 5229 cubic meters to about 1187 in 2017, which is continuously on the downward slide [ 30 ]. The latest UN report on Pakistan's growing population indicates that by 2050, the population is likely to exceed 366 million [ 31 ], which will compound the water demand, which is predicted to reach 274-million-acre feet (MAF) by 2025 against available water supply of 191 MAF. This demand and supply gap would continue to grow year on year basis due to growing population and bad water management [ 32 ]. Figure 6 shows graphical representation of expected water situation in Pakistan by 2025 viz-a-viz the population [ 33 ].

Water availability in Pakistan by 2025 taken from Dr Muhammad Ashraf's research report.

3.3. Analysis on Flood Devastations in Pakistan in Year 2022

Most of Pakistan's economy is dependent on the agricultural sector; however, the industrial sector also contributes a great deal to the economic growth of Pakistan. The growing population is directly impacting the environment as the number of vehicles on roads and the number of industries to accommodate these individuals will also increase. The population of Pakistan at the time of independence was 32.5 million; however, as per the 2021 census, the population has increased to 225 million. Although, Pakistan remains significantly low on the global CO 2 emissions list, yet the effects of global warming have reached Pakistan in a sweeping manner [ 34 ]. The issue that industrialized countries failed to realize that the environment does not belong to a single country and when one country damages the ozone layer, the entire world would pay the price for that. The year 2022 was one such year for Pakistan when the effects of climate change brought heavy rainfalls in Pakistan resulting in major loss of lives, infrastructural damage, and massive economic losses to the tune of US$ 30 billion [ 35 ]. The NASA issued satellite imagery on the flood situation in Pakistan, which is given in Figure 7 .

NASA satellite imagery of floods in Pakistan, September 01, 2022.

Torrential rainfall and flooding have wreaked havoc across Pakistan killing over 1600 people including children and destroying infrastructure. According to statement given by Sherry Rehman Minister for Climate Change: “One third of the country is literally under water, a catastrophe of unknown precedent” The data are given in Table 2 and Figure 8 . Therefore, the devastating floods caused by unprecedented impact of climate change have hit Pakistan the most this year seriously impacting all the sectors of economy and society [ 36 ].

Flood devastation in Swat (KPK) and Baluchistan.

Province wise loss suffered because of heavy rain fall [ 36 ].

3.4. Analysis on Drinking Water Quality in Pakistan

The quality of available drinking water in Pakistan is in a dreadful state. Both surface and subsurface water sources are contaminated and disease prone [ 37 ] in major cities as well as rural areas. In the overall context, per capita the availability of water is decreasing precipitously in Pakistan, and the country is ranked as “water stressed” country and fast heading toward “water scarce” country in coming few years [ 38 ]. The evolving situation also creates challenges for availability of water for agricultural production, and daily usage requirements, therefore intensifying the human security issues in Pakistan [ 39 ]. Water pollution is the most common word today in Pakistan, which can be ascribed to numerous aspects affecting quality of available water [ 40 ]. The common causes are an upsurge in the atmospheric temperatures, with an inbuilt tendency to take heat to the threshold of drinking water, microbes, organic chemicals, nutrients, and heavy metals [ 41 ] . The research findings have discovered other factors as well affecting water quality, which include surface debris, sporadic water supply, improper discharge of water supply, proximity of sewage water to drinking water lines, industrial waste which has now become very common in almost all major cities in Pakistan, discharge of untreated sewage water and highly incompetent technical workers and service providers on water disposal projects [ 42 ]. The pollution of water due to geological and natural factors depends on the presence of different chemicals and their concentration in the geological formations in selected areas, while anthropogenic pollution is caused by extensive use of herbicides and pesticides, coal mining, oil refining, careless disposal of garbage, and septic tanks [ 43 ]. Because of such developments, fresh drinking water is available to hardly 20% of population, while 80% population is content with drinking of contaminated water [ 44 ]. The recent floods have further aggravated the situation as vast swaths of land in Pakistan is still under water, which is now contaminated causing several health issues. The ongoing situation has also impurified subsurface drinking water due to seepage of contaminated flood water deep in Earth, and government's inability for effective disposal of sewage water.

3.5. Water Security

Food and energy security is directly influenced by water security for agrarian society like Pakistan, which contributes more than 23% in national GDP. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan as it employs more than 40 million population and guarantor of breadbasket of the country. Therefore, “the loss of major river systems in the past had a domino effect on the thriving civilizations, which became extinct one after the other” [ 45 ]. Pakistan is transitioning from water strained country with declining “per capita fresh drinking water, which is less than 1800 cubic meters per year (m 3 /y) to water scarce country (per capita less than 1000 m 3 /y)” projected by 2035 [ 46 ]. Similarly, river water also receding to 800 m 3 /y is expected in 2026 due to growing population. Therefore, “water security is emerging threat for Pakistan” [ 47 ]. Pakistan is a lower riparian state reliant on the nature and other countries for river's water. India has constructed more than fifty big and small dams on the rivers coming to Pakistan, which are a constant source of irritation in the bilateral relations and vital for Pakistan's water and energy security. Similarly, Afghanistan is also considering construction of dams on Kabul River, which is likely to create two front dilemmas for Pakistan. The situation is even challenging when viewed in the context of availability of only two major dams in Pakistan, Tarbela, and Mangla which were constructed in late 1960s and 1970s; however, “their capacities are reducing due to silting.” While construction of new dams is highly politicized, charged with massive outrage from political parties and masses, therefore, not likely to happen in near future. It is expected that the availability of less water is likely to increase food shortages and create conflict among the federating units and the federation. Similarly, the negative impacts of climate change can cause melting glaciers and unusual pattern of rains, which may lead to flooding as we are witnessing in year 2022.

3.6. Food Security

The Indus Basin, which is the bedrock of agriculture support in Pakistan is seriously threatened by the negative impacts of climate change. The changing weather patterns may result in the reduction of crops yield “(15–20% in cereals) and livestock (20–30%)” [ 48 ], impacting negatively the dairy and poultry as the agriculture and livestock sectors are the “backbone of Pakistan's economy, which contributes 23% to GDP and accounts 60% exports of country” [ 49 ]. The food security is vulnerable to climate change due to reduction in crops and adversarial influences on livestock. Reduced water in real harvesting season is changing the crops patterns and the lands are vulnerable to droughts and flooding as well, which also create massive migrations. The devastations of ongoing floods have created serious food shortages in Pakistan and inflation is also all time high. Pakistan's Prime Minister has already rung the alarm bells by stating that Pakistan is vulnerable to serious food shortage, and it is feared that essential food items may be imported this year and next year as all cultivable lands are under water [ 50 ].

3.7. Implications of Climate Change on the National Mosaic of Pakistan

3.7.1. competition over water resources.

Agriculture-based economies are heavily dependent on the natural resources of the state. This is extremely critical situation for the state to cope with the needs of the masses and economic challenges when there is a scarcity of sustainable renewable and nonrenewable resources. Countries like Pakistan where socioeconomic challenges, such as rising population, lack of political will, internal security issues, urbanization, lack of public policies for managing population, and natural resources are growing at a faster pace as compared with its economic growth. Even the geographical position of the state near the equator is unable to supplement its growing needs and demands. It is an alarming situation for the Pakistan that in the presence of other socioeconomic challenges, the drastic impacts of climate change have also increased its economic and political challenges, while the insufficiency of water reservoirs is creating serious concerns of inter-provincial disharmony. The rising population has not only affected the quantity of water reservoirs but has also depleted the quality in the same manner. The increase in anthropogenic activities is causing water stress on natural reservoirs, while since independence in 1947, the country is facing persistent decline in the availability of water year on year basis due to multitude of factors examined above. According to the estimates of Mr. Jamshed Iqbal Cheema, Chairman Pakistan Agriculture Scientists Association (PASA), in 1947, the capita water availability was 5600 cubic meters, which decreased by 406% from 5260 cubic meters in 1951 to 1038 cubic meters in 2010 and 877 cubic meters in 2020. The PASA estimates that available water will further deplete by 2025 to a level of 660 cubic meters and by 2050 will reach 575 cubic meters as shown in Figure 9 below [ 51 ].

Per capita availability of water reservoirs in Pakistan [ 52 ].

The causes of water shortages in Pakistan exist in two types: (a) incidental causes related to poor water management policies at local level, (b) operational causes include the political conflicts (over the water resources on provincial/institutional level) and the societal differences over water management and distribution. Water issue is not only related with the environmental degradation, but also linked with the social factors as abnormal population growth causes a rise in demand of clean water resources, disturbance of equilibrium between communities, provinces, and water resources distribution. As Pakistan consists of multiple ethnicities and diversified geographical terrain but competition over the access of water resources has often created tensions and conflicts among the federating units. The growing vulnerabilities of communities over the insufficiency of water reservoirs promote lawlessness, antistate sentiments and sense of deprivation among its own nationals. Due to lack of strong monitoring mechanism over channelization of available water, for creating a balanced approach between demand and supply of available water, the population is incentivized for illegal water proliferation. The tacit approval from the water management departments has resulted in water theft cases mostly in Southern Punjab and interior Sindh, as there are many illegal drillings, hidden pipelines, and unrecorded water connections from main supply lines. Such illegal water channels mostly exist adjacent to sanitation systems in cities and rural areas, contaminating the available water. The increase in anthropogenic activities is also causing water stress on natural reservoirs.

Another reason of growing water scarcity is unlawful construction and sanitation systems near or over the water channels, which continuously contaminate water, especially during floods blend these altogether. The role of administration is highly crucial in this matter to control such catastrophic constructions and lessen the pressure on water consumption. The unprotected constructions along rivers, lakes, and streams often cause blockage of natural water channels particularly in monsoon and rainy season resulting into loss of lives, roads network, and infrastructure damage as the enormity of flood damages to clean water channels is immeasurable. In 2010 floods, Pakistan witnessed unimaginable losses as around 20 million people were victims, 1.7 million died, 436 healthcare centers were devastated, 80% food reserves were smashed, 2.9 million households were severely damaged, nearly 1.1 million houses were damaged and $ 9.7 billion economic loss in 135 districts. While the issues of accessing the safe water channels was still in demand after flood (96.8% before vs 96.7%). In year 2022 floods, these losses have increased manifolds and caused unprecedented damages to natural water resources. Around 33 million people are direct victims, death troll rising above 1500, while 110 district of Baluchistan (Quetta, Pishin, Killa Saifullah, Nushki, Jaffarabad, and Washuk), Punjab (Koh e Suleman ranges, Rajanpur, D. G Khan), Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Thatta, Sajawal, and Shaheed Benazir Abad) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Swat and lower/upper Dir) are declared as most calamity hit areas. While 30% water channels are severely affected, and 63% flood victims are struggling for sufficient clean water channels. The economic losses suffered have been estimated to the tune of US$ 30 billion. The analyses amply highlight the insufficiency of available water and demand, compounded by adverse effects of floods during this year.

3.7.2. Negative Impact on Agriculture Sector

Pakistan is heavily relying on agricultural sector for its international exports and domestic food demands, but in the presence of water crisis and conventional irrigation system for its agricultural production, the country will face severe challenges of water scarcity in times to come. According to Global Food and Security Index 2021, Pakistan ranked 80 out of 113 countries [ 53 ] and Global Food and Security Index 2022, it has further slipped by four numbers and now ranks 84 out of 113 countries [ 54 ]. Pakistan lags behind all South Asian countries in food insecurity. The lack of progress in agricultural sector is also linked with the mismanagement of land and water resources, unsatisfactory policies of water governance, exponential population growth, and the negative impacts of climate change. Pakistan has also failed to adopt new strategies like advanced water management in agricultural sector, usage of adaptation methods in yields productions to enhance water consumption in eco-friendly manner, educate farmers about the water recycling and water productivity techniques. While water scarcity is a highly charged political issue in Pakistan as there is a turf war between the provinces and the federation. However, Punjab government took good initiative and introduced national water policy of Pakistan to ensure regularization of water governance system in the country. In the presence of fragile agriculture sector development, climate degradation impacts have worsened the livelihood and yield production. Therefore, on a year-on-year basis, the agriculture yield is squeezing, demand of water is increasing, and unplanned urbanization is resulting into loss of precious agriculture land. The overall impact of these issues is creating negative repercussions on agriculture production and aggravating food security situation in Pakistan.

3.7.3. Water Quality and Public Health Risks

The availability of clean drinking water is biggest national security challenge for Pakistan today. The water proliferation and loss of water supply sources from government record is not only raising the administrative issues but also causing multiple public health problems. The contamination of water along with the presence of sanitary pipelines expose the population with the contagious and chronic diseases like diarrhea, cholera, jaundice, typhoid, hepatitis C, liver cancer, and gastrointestinal infections. The water scarcity in Pakistan has enormous impact on health care system as well as the country is struggling with the diseases that are almost nonexistential in developed countries. The significant findings of this study are that in Pakistan, 50% diseases spread through contaminated water and provide most suitable medium of spread and transfer various bacterial and viral infections from human to human or animals to human as the country is facing the 40% of mortality rate caused by the contaminated water intake, while the frontline victims of waterborne diseases are pregnant women, newly born babies, and early teenage groups. It is also important to note that the primary source of water in Pakistan is sub-surface water channels, which over a period have become the hub of different variants of pathogens. According to World Health Organization (WHO) report, approximately, 2.5 million deaths occur annually in Pakistan from widespread diarrheal diseases caused by bacterial and protozoan agents present in inferior quality of drinking water. Around 80% population is exposed to unsafe water as UNICEF Pakistan has also shared the alarming fact that the well-being and health standards of youngsters are at risk; therefore, each year, 53,000 children under the age of 5 years lose their lives due to unhygienic water as 70% of household work and domestic usage of water in Pakistan is dependent on bacterial water sources. The floods of 2022 have compounded the problems of availability and access to clean drinking water. The field visits to rural and urban Sindh, KPK, and Baluchistan vindicated scarcity and contamination of drinking water, which has been reported by several NGOs and media as well. The stagnant water has been contaminated due to mixing of sewage water and created ideal breading grounds for bacteria causing serious health risks. Nonavailability of compatible medical support, inaccessibility, and nondisposal of flood water have created many health risks and entire population in affected areas is vulnerable to adverse effects of contaminated water. In most areas, the disposal of flood water is left to the nature and the government agencies have demonstrated inability to manage it, therefore, spread of waterborne diseases will continue for prolonged period in future.

4. Policy Recommendations

4.1. legislation for interministerial coordination.

The ministry of climate change should take a lead role and coordinate with all the provinces on the issues of water security. All related agencies and departments should work in harmony with this ministry for synergetic response. Similarly, international engagements would be essential component for successful policy implementation; therefore, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Climate Change should remove overlaps and avoid duplications wherever required.

4.2. Proper Enforcement of Legislation

“Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord 1991” highlights the judicious distribution of Indus River System (IRS) water among the federating units of Pakistan. However, this accord was unable to deal with the conflicts arising due to unfair distribution of water at times. To resolve this issue, “Indus River System Authority” (IRSA) was established in 1992 [ 55 ], through an act of Parliament to work as an institution for Indus water resources regulation and monitoring in Pakistan. However, the problems related to fair water distribution, monitoring and installation system, and the treatment plants lagged during the implementation phase. There always remained issues between Punjab and Sindh regarding unfair water theft. Despite establishment of “Council of Common Interest” (CCI) to resolve the grievances of provinces, but issues persist due to weak implementation mechanism and weak governance. The devolution of power under 18th amendment of the constitution, devolved the water distribution among the rural and urban areas of each province as an internal matter of the provinces; however, water crises remain at large seriously impacting inter-provincial harmony. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) is assigned the task of ensuring clean drinking water across Pakistan. Implementation of water-related policies requires a great deal of realization and urgency on the part of the political elites of Pakistan. The gravity of the issue needs to be addressed as a national emergency, otherwise, Pakistan is vulnerable to water scarcity situations normally witnessed in African continent.

4.3. Judicious Distribution of Water

Being a lower riparian, Sindh is often complaining about the water shortage, especially in the pre-monsoon period each year. The claims made by Sindh government at numerous occasions regarding Punjab stealing its share of water have been denied by Indus River System Authority (IRSA). After the 18th amendment, the allocation of resources to the provinces has been ensured to be judicious; however, the internal distribution of these resources to the rural and urban areas is the responsibility of the provinces. The IRSA is mandated to address, regulate, and develop standard operating procedures (SOPs) for water allocation to the provinces. Regrettably, each province has its own peculiarities in terms of agricultural needs and population, therefore, making the interpretation and implementation of the accord more difficult. To resolve water distribution issues on sustainable basis, the “whole of government approach” is recommended along with on-site consultative visits by the representatives of provincial and federal governments and political leaders for expeditious resolution of conflicting issues. Creating unnecessary fault lines is detrimental to national integration, which should be avoided at all costs.

4.4. Water Treatment Plants and Recycling of Water

Pakistan is in dire need of installing treatment plants as every year, hospitals are flooded with patients, both adults and children suffering from diseases resulting from contaminated water. People living in both urban and rural areas are exposed to contagions and microbial bacteria, which enter the body through water, unsafe for drinking. Not everyone in Pakistan can afford bottled water, therefore, it is the responsibility of the state to provide its citizens with safe drinking water. As we know that Pakistan receives a major portion of heavy rains between the months of July to September, where majority of rainwater ends up in rivers, ponds, while the rest of it results in heavy floods of cities and inhabitants. The government through installation of treatment plants can filter clean drinking water for ensuring public health. Similarly, more wastewater recycling plants are the need of time, which should be installed at priority. In rural areas, wastewater treatment is almost nonexistent, leading to pollution of surface and groundwater [ 56 ]. The government should pay instantaneous attention to the evolving challenges of treatment of wastewater for sparing clean water for drinking purposes and balanced delivery of recycled water to other uses like irrigation.

4.5. Climate Emergency and Disaster Response Mechanism

Pakistan was successful in convincing the world leaders during recently concluded United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) sessions about vulnerabilities to climate risks and the unprecedented impact during year 2022. UN Secretary General Antoni Guterres and US President Joe Biden personally appealed for help for Pakistan to alleviate the suffering and quick rehabilitation of flood victims. It is suggested that Pakistan should consider climate diplomacy as an urgent priority and initiate the process of engagement at bilateral and multilateral levels with developed countries to reduce the vulnerabilities and risks of climate change. Additionally, the disaster response mechanism also needs to be re-energized with strong interagency coordination. The existing structure of national and provincial disaster management authorities should be reinforced through capacity building and professional training. Appropriate equipment for rescue and relief operations also needs to be provided at vulnerable sites for immediate response to save maximum lives. The infrastructure development in flood affected areas should be expedited for which essential resources should be mobilized well in time. Such preparations should be done and rehearsed every year during pre-monsoon season for synergetic and a befitting response to minimize reaction time and save maximum lives.

5. Conclusion

Climate change is the evolving global threat, and Pakistan is most vulnerable from its negative impacts. The year 2022 witnessed extreme drought on one hand, followed by unusual floods over the short span of 2-3 months. Therefore, for Pakistan, alarm bells are ringing to take the holistic stock of situation by declaring climate emergency and adopt “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approaches for a comprehensive response ensuring strong interagency cooperation and capitalizing on the synergetic application of all Elements of National Power (EoNP) for optimum results. It is essential to integrate the respective departments under the umbrella of national and provincial disaster response agencies for harmonious functioning, coordination, and execution. There is dire need to create strong national realization to “conserve, preserve, and proportionally distribute existing water resources” [ 57 ]. Moreover, smart means for spending agriculture water and recycling of water for uses other than drinking would be helpful as such practices have been adopted by most of developed countries. The construction of more water reservoirs is the need of time and current floods across Pakistan are the testimony of this fact. It is felt that this study shall help the relevant government ministries as an academic policy input for addressing water security issues in Pakistan on sustainable basis.

Data Availability

Conflicts of interest.

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Essay On Climate Change In Pakistan

Climate change in pakistan essay.

Climate change is a most important challenge to meet the sufficient food demand for increasing the world population in the 21st century while it is difficult to sustain the already stressed environment. Climate change has negative impacts on water resources, crops production, hydropower, and human health worldwide (Nelson, Rosegrant, Koo, Robertson, Sulser, Zhu, & Magalhaes, 2009). The global climate is changing rapidly over millennia but from the past few decades emission of greenhouse gasses (GHG)

Regional Security Challenges Essay

the collective security of everyone within the planet. Security in this context implies the freedom to live a safe life inside a peaceful environment without harmful interference. Considering that every region has its own security challenge, this essay will discuss three security challenges present within Asia Pacific region and also within global community. Part one will discuss the regional and global perceptions on each of these identify security challenges. Part two of this paper will look at

Identity Reflective Essay

She proposes that climate change is one of the biggest threats to the livelihood and identity of many Tuvaluans. An increasing frequency of tropical storms, floods, and rogue waves has resulted in the destruction of houses, crops, and the coral systems that the Tuvaluans reside

More about Essay On Climate Change In Pakistan

Popular essays.

• Persuasive Essay On Driverless Cars
• Essay On Light Pollution
• My Ambition In Life
• Human Trafficking Speech
• Analysis Of Zora Neale Hurston's Their Eyes Were Watching God
• Foreign Aid Literature Review

• Skip to primary navigation
• Skip to main content
• Skip to primary sidebar
• Skip to footer

Daily Times

Your right to know Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Perspectives

Climate change: causes, outcomes in Pakistan and a way forward

September 24, 2019

Climate change can generally be defined as a change in global or regional climate patterns. In particular, it is the change apparent from the mid-to-late 20th century onwards, and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels. The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: “A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”

Human activities are the major cause of climate change. The foremost cause is global warming. Burning fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide. Due to expansion of the greenhouse effect, global warming has risen. As per this phenomenon, gases such as water vapors, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons in the our atmosphere prevents the heat to leave the earth’s atmosphere; resultantly, the ozone layer depletes and the temperature rises.

In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that there is a more than 95 percent probability that human activities over the past 50 years have warmed our planet. Industrial activities that our modern civilisation depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there is a better than 95 percent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in earth’s temperatures over the past 50 years. About half of the CO2 emissions, between 1750 and 2010, have occurred in the last 40 years.

Deforestation and increase in the use of chemicals in domestic and agriculture life is another reason of climate change. Deforestation is the second leading cause of global warming and produces about 24 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists say that deforestation in tropical rainforests adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than the sum total of all the cars and trucks on the world’s roads.

The surge in the uses of chemicals in domestic as well as in agriculture, in the shape of fertilisers, also plays its role in climate change. The high rate of application of nitrogen-rich fertilisers has effects on the heat storage of cropland (nitrogen oxides have 300 times more heat-trapping capacity per unit of volume than carbon dioxide) and the run-off of excess fertilizers creates ‘dead zones’ in our oceans. In addition to these effects, high nitrate levels in groundwater due to over fertilization are cause for concern for human health.

These causes resulted in climate change and have a perilous aftermath. In this regard, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in 1988. It now engages with 195 member countries, which provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation options.

The foremost hazardous evidence is the rise of carbon dioxide in out atmosphere. As per NASA’s scientific evidence, for a millennium, the level of carbon dioxide (parts per million) was below 300, which started to rise since 1950, and is now above 400. Secondly, as per NASA’s evidence, the planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. This is also established by the United Nations’ report, prepared by the World Meteorological Organisation, on September 22, 2019. It states that the period “is currently estimated to be 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial era of 1850-1900, and 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than 2011-2015”.

Thirdly, the oceans are getting warmer, and ice sheets are shrinking. As per NASA, the oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased and have lost an average of 286 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 127 billion tons of ice per year during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade.

Fourthly, the glaciers are melting and sea level is rising. Around the globe, the glaciers are retreating including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. The global sea level rose about eight inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.

There are other drastic evidences of climate change. Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly. Disturbed rainfalls and extreme weather events have increased. Also, the ocean acidification, which has increased by about 30 percent since the Industrial Revolution, is another evidence of climate change. It also has a negative impact on crop yield productions. The direct impact on the lives of humans is on the vulnerable and the marginalised segment of society.

As per NASA, 97 percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities

As per IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, numerous risks are involved that raise concern. These include risk of death, injuries, health or disturbed livelihoods due to storms, flooding and sea-level rise. The risk in water supply, supply of electricity and emergency situations are also there. The foremost risk is food insecurity due to droughts, flooding, and precipitation variability. There is the risk to lose marine and coastal ecosystems and biodiversity as well.

Although Pakistan is not much contributing in global warming and climate change, yet it is the seventh most affected country. The Global Change Impact Studies Centre of Pakistan shows that the mean annual temperature has increased in the recent past with greater increase in Sindh and Balochistan. During the last century, the average temperature over Pakistan has increased by 0.6°C, which is in conformity with the increase of the average global temperature. Future climate change projections, based on all four IPCC-AR5 RCPs scenarios, show that the average rise in temperature over Pakistan, by the end of the century, will be about 1°C higher compared to the global average. This increase, particularly in temperature, is associated with a number of adverse impacts, including the increasing frequency of extreme events (floods, droughts, heat waves, and cyclonic activity), steady regression of most glaciers (except a small minority in the Karakorum Range) that supply the bulk of the country’s water supply and changes in the rainfall patterns.

Pakistan’s water cycle is the primary affected area of climate change. Agriculture is one of the major sectors likely to be adversely affected by climate change. Climate change can disrupt food availability, reduce access to food, and affect food quality. Projected increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability may all result in reduced agricultural productivity. Seasonal smog is also due to climate change and pollution.

Pakistan has also suffered economically due to climate change. According to experts, Pakistan has faced around 150 freak weather incidents as a result of climate change in the past 20 years: flash floods, smog in winter, forest fires in summer, melting glaciers, freaky heatwaves, landslides, displaced population. During the floods in 2010-11, almost 10 percent of Pakistan’s population was displaced in two provinces, one in the north and another in the south. Last year, the cost of extreme weather as a consequence of climate change was listed at $384 million; in the past 20 years, there has been a cost of almost two billion dollars to the national economy because of the ravages of climate change.

The writing is on the wall. The world is responding to the danger now. Greta Thunberg, a teenage Swedish environment activist, shookup the top leaders with a Global Climate Strike call on September 20, 2019, through which the protest was recorded in around 150 countries, in more than 4,500 places.

The UN has shown its commitment to fight in this noble cause. There are various agreements and protocols for climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the main international agreement on climate action. It was one of the three conventions adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. To date, it has been ratified by 195 countries. It started as a way for countries to work together to limit global temperature increases and climate change, and to cope with their impacts.

In the mid-1990s, the UNFCCC signatories realised that stronger provisions were needed to reduce emissions. In this regard, they agreed to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which introduced legally binding emission reduction targets for developed countries. Next comes the Paris Agreement; the Paris climate conference took place from November 30 to December 11, 2015. On December 12, the parties reached a new global agreement on climate change. The agreement presents a balanced outcome with an action plan to limit global warming ‘well below’ two degree Celsius. There is also the Montreal Protocol 1987, which is a global agreement to protect the stratospheric ozone layer by phasing out the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. There is also the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought in countries experiencing serious drought/ desertification.

What requires is that we must change course by 2020, as the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterreshas said; we risk missing the point where we can avoid the “disastrous consequences for people and all the natural systems that sustain us.”

In this regard, there are the following suggestions to tackle global warming. Dramatically reducing our use of fossil fuels, especially carbon-intensive coal, is essential to tackle climate change. There are many ways to begin this process. Key action steps include: not building any new coal-burning power plants, initiating a phased shutdown of coal plants starting with the oldest and dirtiest, and capturing and storing carbon emissions from power plants. While it may sound like science fiction, the technology exists to store carbon emissions underground.

Taken together with the tropical deforestation, emissions from agriculture represent nearly 30 percent of the world’s heat-trapping emissions. We can fight global warming by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and by making our food production practices more sustainable.

Using alternative sources of energy is more efficient and meets the problem of global warming. Energy producing from solar, wind, tidal, and biomass are more clean and renewable. There are least effects if we produce electricity from the alternative sources of energy. Nuclear power results in a few global warming emissions; an increased share of nuclear power in the energy mix could help reduce global warming.

A successful global compact on climate change must include financial assistance from richer countries to poorer countries to help make the transition to low-carbon development pathways and to help adapt to the impacts of climate change. The energy used to power, heat, and cool our homes, businesses, and industries are the single largest contributor to global warming. Energy efficiency technologies are the dire need of the hour.

Transportation sector’s emissions have increased at a faster rate than any other energy-usingsector over the past decade. For this, efficient fuel consumption modes of transport, and switching to low-carbon fuels are the requirement of time.

In a nutshell, we must develop a two-pronged approach: firstly, we must reduce emissions and stabilise the levels of greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere; secondly, we must adapt climate-friendly lifestyles and pursue the principles of sustainable economic growth.

Although Pakistan is facing environmental challenges, which include climate change impacts, loss of biological diversity, deforestation and degradation of air and water quality, Pakistan is trying to respond well. Because of the deteriorating economy, the country could not do much. But still, the present government has launched the Ten Billion Trees Tsunami Programme to lead the country towards aiming at revival of forestry and control air, weather, wildlife, forestation, watershed management and soil conservation to combat the negative impacts of climate change. Pakistan is amongst the pioneers who have established a climate ministry. The country has also launched the Climate Change Policy 2012. The National Climate Change Policy comprehensively addresses all possible challenges of climate change and provides a foundational framework to tackle the problem. But Pakistan alone cannot do it. It is a global issue. The whole of the world’s future is at stake.

It is time that the United Nations, along with all 195 countries, do not let the grass grow under its feet and act now to save the mother earth.

The writer is an advocate of the High Court and teaches law

Submit a Comment

Home Lead Stories Latest News Editor’s Picks

Culture Life & Style Featured Videos

Editorials OP-EDS Commentary Advertise

Cartoons Letters Blogs Privacy Policy

Contact Company’s Financials Investor Information Terms & Conditions

NBR Special Report no. 32

Nontraditional security threats in pakistan.

This essay examines Pakistan’s most significant nontraditional security challenges, including climate change, increasing population and urbanization, food security, and water security.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Main findings.

• Climate change will negatively affect human activities and livelihoods in Pakistan through increasingly frequent extreme weather events and changes in temperature and precipitation. A rise in extreme weather has already led to an alarming increase in the number of people killed, injured, or made homeless.
• Pakistan’s large population and high growth rate adversely affect all aspects of society, the economy, and the environment. Population growth creates and exacerbates vulnerabilities by endangering basic civic amenities, leading to a lack of clean water and space for housing and ultimately burdening society.
• Growth in agricultural productivity has broadly kept pace with accelerating demand. However, medium‑term food security challenges will become far more daunting if immediate attention is not paid to managing water resources, both underground and in the Indus Basin river system.
• Water security is the most serious challenge for Pakistan due to several factors, particularly the increasing pressure of population and urbanization, massive expansion of tube‑well irrigation, reduced levels of precipitation caused by climate change, and the accelerated retreat of Himalayan glaciers.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

• Pakistan can mitigate the adverse effects of natural disasters through early warning systems, technological advances in building and infrastructure construction, improved sanitation systems, increased disaster preparedness, and an organized health sector response.
• Expanding and enhancing the information and knowledge base on climate change, as well as mapping vulnerabilities, trends in internal migration, and the incidence of disease, can help create adaptive measures for reducing the effects of climate change.
• The successful implementation of mechanisms to address nontraditional security issues will require that South Asian countries work together to adopt ecosystem‑wide approaches that incorporate transboundary strategies.

• nontraditional security

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• Review Article
• Open access
• Published: 14 June 2024

Climate-induced migration in the Global South: an in depth analysis

• Abdulaziz I. Almulhim   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5384-7219 1 ,
• Gabriela Nagle Alverio   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7050-3381 2 ,
• Ayyoob Sharifi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8983-8613 3 ,
• Rajib Shaw   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3153-1800 4 ,
• Saleemul Huq 5 ,
• Md Juel Mahmud 5 ,
• Shakil Ahmad 6 &
• Ismaila Rimi Abubakar   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7994-2302 7  

npj Climate Action volume  3 , Article number:  47 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

277 Accesses

13 Altmetric

Metrics details

• Climate-change mitigation

Scientists predict ongoing global climate change to trigger adverse events affecting about 143 million people in the Global South by 2050, leading to various forms of migration and mobility. While existing literature extensively examines climate-induced migration, there is a lack of studies considering the compounding impacts of multiple climate hazards on migration, mobility, and immobility. To address this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review to explore how climate-induced stressors, specifically rising temperatures, water stress and droughts, and floods and sea-level rise, have affected populations in the Global South, leading to voluntary and/or forced migration. Our findings show that these stressors have displaced and profoundly impacted millions of people, resulting in both internal and transboundary migration. Climate-induced stressors often trigger migration through indirect pathways influenced by multiple intervening institutional, political, and socio-economic factors and programmatic and policy gaps. Effectively addressing challenges related to climate-induced migration necessitates adaptation strategies that adequately consider the impacts of these intervening factors while recognizing their differential effects on various socio-demographic groups. We argue that support from Global North countries, including compensation for loss and damage, along with continued institutional and financial support from international non-governmental organizations, is crucial for managing climate-induced migration in the Global South. Without proper planning and adequate resources, migration may escalate and significantly impact human security. The findings of this study can inform climate migration policies and assist adaptation and migration experts in identifying intervention mechanisms and opportunities for people-centered climate solutions.

Similar content being viewed by others

The economic commitment of climate change

No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point

A unifying modelling of multiple land degradation pathways in Europe

Introduction.

Climate change poses significant threats to human well-being, security, and livelihoods. According to the World Meteorological Organization 1 , global temperatures have risen since the 1980s, with the period from 2015–2023 identified as the warmest on record. Prior to 2023, the highest global temperature recorded occurred in 2016 due to an exceptionally strong El Niño event 2 . However, in 2023, this record was surpassed, with the global average temperature reaching 17.18 degrees Celsius 3 . Alongside rising temperatures, climate change is also causing an increase in extreme and adverse weather events such as sea-level rise, floods, hurricanes, heatwaves, and droughts, which are becoming more frequent and widespread 4 , 5 .

As a result of these increasing threats, there is a noticeable shift in patterns of human mobility, and it is predicted that the number of affected individuals will grow exponentially in the coming decades 6 . In the year 2020 alone, over 40.5 million people were forced to relocate, with 30.7 million of them being directly impacted by natural hazards 7 . Floods and storms were responsible for the displacement of 14 million individuals each, with Asia and the Pacific being severely affected regions, experiencing substantial human displacement and damage to buildings and infrastructure 8 .

Sustainable development goal (SDG) 10, which focuses on reducing inequalities within and among countries, emphasizes the importance of safe, orderly, and accountable mobility and migration (Target 7). However, climate-related extreme weather events, such as water scarcity and food shortages, hinder the achievement of this goal 9 . By 2050, it is projected that about 143 million individuals in the Global South will be displaced due to climate change impacts 10 . To address this SDG target, it is crucial to critically assess the consequences of climate change on migration, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Southeast Asia, and the wider Pacific region 11 , 12 , 13 .

While a few studies have explored the relationship between migration and climate change in the Global South, there is a dearth of comprehensive synthesis studies that systematically review the current state of knowledge about the connection between major climate hazards and migration outcomes in the region. Hence, the primary aim of this study is to examine the influence of increasing temperatures, water stress and drought, floods, and sea-level rise—tripartite environmental factors driven by climate change—on migration patterns in the Global South. Through a systematic review, the study aims to answer the following questions: Which climate-induced hazards and stressors have been extensively studied in the literature on the Global South? How do these hazards and stressors affect migration in Global South countries? What are the mediating factors that either impede or promote climate change-induced migration?

This study makes a significant contribution by synthesizing the findings of a comprehensive review of the intricate and multi-faceted interactions between climate change stressors and migration in the Global South. By providing policymakers and planners with valuable insights, this study aids in formulating targeted interventions and strategies to address the specific needs and vulnerabilities of different regions affected by climate-induced migration. The subsequent section of the paper includes a literature background on the nexus between climate and migration, as well as climate impacts in different regions of the Global South. The next section describes the materials and methods employed for systematically gathering and analyzing the literature. It is followed by the presentation of the findings. The subsequent section discusses the results in the context of the existing body of knowledge and explores their implications. The paper concludes with key lessons, limitations, and suggestions for future research directions.

Literature background and context

The climate and migration nexus.

There is a lack of consensus regarding the terminology for individuals who migrate due to climate or environmental factors, as climate change interacts with other drivers of migration in complex ways 14 , 15 . Climate change impacts, such as water scarcity, soil infertility, soil erosion, land degradation, and floods, often combine with other socioeconomic factors like poverty and inequality to drive migration 16 , 17 . Additionally, determining the role of the environment and climate change in migration decisions is challenging 18 , 19 , 20 . To address these challenges, the term, “environmental migrants” was introduced to highlight the relationship between the environment and migration. Environmental migrants are individuals who “ for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad ” 21 (p. 3–4). However, the discourse has evolved, and the term “climate migrant” is now commonly used to emphasize how climate change exacerbates environmental issues and the associated migration 22 , 23 . Thus, it is important to note that discussions on climate migration encompass both migration/displacement and immobility, both voluntary and involuntary 24 .

Migration can be seen as a crucial coping strategy for individuals and households, allowing them to adapt and navigate changes in resource availability across different environments 25 , particularly to minimize their susceptibility to environmental shocks 26 . In some cases, moving from vulnerable climate hotspots is not merely an ‘adaptation strategy’ but an essential survival mechanism in the face of ‘adaptation failure' 27 . The decision to migrate due to climate change is influenced by changing environmental conditions, migrants’ characteristics, and other migration drivers such as economic, political, social, demographic, individual, and household factors 28 , 29 , 30 .

There is substantial evidence indicating that the environmental impacts of climate change will lead to large-scale human mobility and displacement in the future. Estimates suggest that between 50 million 31 and 250 million 32 people could be affected by 2050, rising to 630 million by 2100 20 . The World Bank projects that by 2050, 216 million across different regions, including North Africa (19 million), Sub-Saharan Africa (86 million), South Asia (40 million), LAC (17 million), Eastern Europe and Central Asia (5 million), and East Asia and the Pacific (49 million), will be impacted by climate change 33 .

While there are limitations in modeling the flow of climate migrants and incorporating tipping points and emerging stressors that influence migration decisions 34 , most climate migration models agree that climate-driven migration will increase in the coming decades 24 . Migration can occur voluntarily or involuntarily to escape imminent risks. While internal migration within a country (mainly to urban areas) is more common 35 , international migration is also increasing, especially in regions where climate change coincides with violent conflicts, such as Africa and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 36 .

Global South context

Many countries in the Global South are grappling with rapid population growth, which strains the environment and diverts resources, posing challenges to local and regional sustainability 37 , 38 . When combined with climate change impacts, these challenges contribute to increased migration. In response, international agreements like the UN Global Compact for Migration and the Global Compact on Refugees aim to ensure the orderly movement of refugees 39 . It is crucial to consider migration as an integral part of environmental systems and incorporate discussions on the correlation between climate change mechanisms and patterns of human mobility 30 , 32 . Climate change affects various aspects of human life, including livelihoods, public health, land use, infrastructure, water, and air quality, and socio-cultural activities 40 , 41 .

Given that many Global South countries heavily rely on agriculture and natural resources, rising temperatures, floods, and water scarcity are placing strain on livelihoods and driving rural-to-urban migration 22 . This predominant form of climate migration contributes to urban sustainability challenges, including unplanned urbanization and the development of informal settlements in peri-urban areas 42 . In these settlements, residents typically engage in small-scale entrepreneurship, self-employment, casual work, and petty trading, constituting an informal economy 12 . Unfortunately, these settlements often lack basic infrastructure and are poorly constructed, making them highly vulnerable to climate change-related hazards like floods and storm surges 42 . Water pollution and inadequate sanitation further pose health risks for residents in these areas 43 . In cities where risks and dangers persist, people may be compelled to cross borders, further complicating, and expanding the dynamics of climate-related migration 44 .

Climate impacts in the Global South by region

In 2022, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached a record high of approximately 36.6 Gigatons (GT) 45 . The top contributors to these emissions were China, the United States, and the European Union, accounting for 19.3 GT, which is about 53% of the global total (China: 11.4 Gt, USA: 5.1 Gt, EU: 2.8 Gt). In contrast, LAC accounted for only about 7% of total GHG emissions 46 . Even though Africa produces the least GHG emissions, it faces the most severe consequences of climate change 47 . On the other hand, Southeast Asia experienced the highest increase in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2010 compared to any other region in the world 48 . Despite the relatively low contributions of most Global South countries to GHG emissions, they are more vulnerable to climate change impacts, including sea-level rise, floods, and rising temperatures 49 . Moreover, these countries generally have lower adaptive capacities compared to their counterparts in the Global North.

Climate impacts in South Asia

South Asia is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, including river flooding, sea-level rise, and extreme temperatures, which exacerbate both internal and cross-border migration 50 , 51 . These impacts pose significant threats to food supplies, livestock, land, and crops, resulting in severe food crises that can trigger migration 52 . In India, farms are being destroyed annually by severe heatwaves and snowstorms caused by climate change 53 , 54 . Likewise, torrential floods are displacing thousands and causing widespread property damage in Pakistan 55 , 56 . In 2022, the world’s deadliest flood in Pakistan affected 33 million people, with 2.1 million losing their homes 57 . Similarly, the Haor areas of Bangladesh were severely impacted by flash floods, affecting approximately 4.2 million people 58 , 59 .

The region’s increasing urbanization and economic growth further contribute to migration, placing additional strain on urban sustainability by exacerbating congestion and diverting already scarce resources to support migrants 60 . By 2040, the demand for energy in South Asia is projected to increase by 66% 61 . However, since most urban areas in South Asia are in low-lying coastal areas already affected by sea-level rise due to climate change, meeting the energy needs of these areas becomes increasingly challenging 50 . Consequently, South Asian economies, including India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Maldives, could experience a 1.8% reduction in their gross domestic product by 2050, which could rise to 8.8% by 2100 62 . Among these countries, Nepal (2.2%), Bangladesh (2%), and India (1.8%) would be the most affected. Consequently, nearly 800 million people may experience deteriorating living conditions, potentially leading to large-scale migration 14 .

Climate impacts in the MENA region

In the MENA region, climate change has already led to water scarcity, desertification, sea-level rise, and loss of biodiversity, resulting in soil degradation, food insecurity, and salt intrusion into aquifers, which have triggered the displacement of people 63 . The Gulf Cooperation Council region currently hosts around 30 million cross-country migrants who have primarily moved due to economic hardships and work opportunities in the energy and infrastructure sectors 64 . However, as climate change intensifies due to the increasing use of fossil fuels, it is anticipated that migration into the oil-rich Gulf region will increase. It is important to note that projections indicate the region could become nearly uninhabitable by 2050 due to the severe impacts of rising temperatures 65 . Saudi desert areas, for instance, are expected to face the most severe effects of global warming, including prolonged heatwaves lasting for months 66 . Moreover, temperatures in the Middle East are projected to rise to 50 °C by 2100, posing significant health and livelihood challenges and putting 400 million individuals at risk of heatwave exposure 65 . These compounding challenges are likely to lead to political and social strains.

Climate impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, densely populated coastal cities in countries like Nigeria, Tanzania, and Mozambique are witnessing seasonal sea level rises, resulting in floods that affect many people 32 , 67 . In West Africa, countries such as Burkina Faso, Niger, Gambia, Mali, Sudan, and Senegal are experiencing droughts caused by rising temperatures 68 . Severe droughts in Madagascar have also forced many people to leave their homes in search of more habitable lands 69 , 70 . Despite contributing the least to GHG emissions, Africa remains the most climate-vulnerable region globally 68 . This vulnerability is particularly heightened because a significant portion of the population relies on rainfed agricultural systems for their livelihoods 5 . As these agricultural systems become increasingly unsustainable, people will be compelled to migrate 71 . Models predict that by 2050, between 28.3 and 71.1 million people will be forced to migrate within the continent (Table 1 and Fig. 1 ). Many of these migrants will gravitate towards urban informal settlements, where the associated safety and health risks are growing 12 . While the link between climate change and conflict is complex, the potential for resource competition to escalate into violence and conflict is high in Africa 72 . Furthermore, water scarcity can exacerbate ongoing conflicts and increase the vulnerability of people displaced by conflict in the region 73 .

Note: According to the World Bank Groundswell Report, around 143 million people will be displaced by 2050: 86 million from Sub-Saharan Africa, 40 million from South Asia and the Pacific, and 17 million from LAC.

Climate impacts on the Pacific Islands

The Pacific Island region is often considered the frontline of climate change due to the severity of its predicted impacts 74 . Despite being referred to as “small” island nations, the Pacific Islands, spanning 25,000 islands, encompass approximately fifteen percent of the Earth’s surface 75 . This region faces compounding challenges from rising sea levels, coastal flooding, erosion, and water scarcity 76 . In Kiribati, for example, 94% of households reported being affected by natural hazards in the past decade 77 . While migration from many Pacific Islands is inevitable in the event of complete inundation due to sea level rise, there are people living in the region who are unable to migrate due to financial constraints, raising concerns about those who may be trapped in unsafe situations 78 . Pacific Island leaders have advocated for international agreements that promote safe migration for those affected by climate change, emphasizing the importance of “Migration with Dignity“ 79 . Planned relocation is often discussed as a potential solution to the loss of habitable land in the Pacific Islands. However, vulnerable populations are likely to face compounded risks rather than alleviation through such processes 80 . While international migration schemes may offer a safer future for Pacific Islanders, the spiritual connection and sense of place they will lose by leaving their land cannot be regained 81 .

Climate impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin American and the Caribbean states are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including mega-droughts, heatwaves, melting glaciers, and torrential rains and floods 13 , 82 . Glaciers in the Andes region have lost between thirty and fifty percent of their area in just forty years, leading to water scarcity 83 . Approximately 27% of the population in the region lives along coastlines, where sea levels rise faster than the global average 83 . Continued deforestation of the Amazon rainforest threatens local and global climate adaptation and mitigation efforts 84 . Prolonged droughts have resulted in severe food insecurity and migration in several countries, such as Mexico, Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua 85 , 86 . Models predict that between 5.8 and 10.6 million people will be internally displaced within the region by 2050 (Table 1 and Fig. 1 ). Already, documented cases of out-migration from Central America to the USA due to escalating agricultural stress indicate that regional migration patterns are likely to intensify further as the impacts of climate change worsen 87 .

Impacts of climate-induced stressors on migration in the Global South

The results of the systematic review are presented in the following three sub-sections, which synthesize the findings on the impacts of increasing temperatures, water stress and droughts, as well as floods and sea level rise, on migration.

Increasing temperatures

Increasing temperatures, which feature 96 times in the Global South in 2021 (Table 2 ), are positively associated with migration. For example, a 1  o C temperature increase leads to a 1.9% increase in global migration 10 . Over the past 15 years, the Caribbean and Latin America have experienced average temperature increases ranging from 0.5 to 1  o C, resulting in glacial melting in the tropical region of the Andes Mountains 88 . The combination of elevated temperatures and increased floods has significantly impacted many cities in the Global South due to global warming 9 . Mountainous countries, such as Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia, face significant challenges as their drinking water, agricultural production, and hydroelectric power depend on glaciers 88 , 89 . It is projected that further temperature increases between 1 o C and 6 o C will exacerbate these issues, leading to increased transboundary migration 90 .

In the Sahel region of Africa, rising temperatures caused by climate change have resulted in the shrinking of Lake Chad over the past five decades, compelling people in Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon who rely on its water to move to urban areas 91 . In Southeast Asia, migration due to increasing temperatures is mainly observed in Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, and the Philippines 51 , 92 . The decision to migrate to these areas is influenced by factors such as social cohesion, government support to communities, level of economic development, migration barriers, and political stability 93 . The Arabian Gulf experiences continuous temperature increases at a faster rate than the global average, negatively impacting health, labor, and agricultural production 94 . Consequently, people migrate to nearby urban areas in search of livelihood opportunities 95 .

Water stress and drought

Water stress occurs when the demand for water exceeds the available quantity within a given period or when its poor quality restricts its use 73 . Historically, water has played a crucial role in determining the location of human settlements. In the contemporary world, as climate change continues to accelerate, global water crises are increasing 96 , with 103 water scarcity and drought events occurring in the Global South in 2021 (Table 2 ). Consequently, migration from affected regions, particularly the Global South, is becoming more frequent 97 . Landlocked countries and those located in arid and semi-arid lands are the most impacted by water stress. For example, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan are situated within the Gobi Desert zone; Zambia, Zimbabwe, and parts of Botswana are affected by the Kalahari Desert; Mali, Niger, Chad, and Burkina Faso are located within the Sahel region; and Chile and Peru are in proximity to the Atacama Desert. These countries experience internal and external migrations due to water stress 98 . However, most of these migrations are internal, as people move to more habitable areas within their countries due to restrictions on external migration in some destination countries 89 .

Migration driven by water stress tends to occur more gradually in rural areas than in urban areas 18 . Additionally, such migrations are a result of insufficient resources to cope with reduced agricultural productivity, income, and subsistence capacity 44 , 99 . Some researchers agree that migration resulting from water scarcity, although often over short distances, can lead to conflicts 73 . In high-risk areas such as coastal regions prone to sea-level rise, large populations in Asia face water scarcity and other challenges during disasters, prompting migration 38 . Moreover, in South Asia, migration is driven by growing social and economic disparities fueled by climate change in water-stress areas 50 , 60 .

An emblematic example of the impact of climate change on water stress and migration can be seen in the semi-arid regions of northeastern Brazil, where subsistence farmers rely mainly on agriculture 100 . As water scarcity intensifies, resulting in nearly an 80% loss in agricultural production, many people migrate to the south, where more favorable conditions exist 75 . Similarly, in Potosi, Bolivia, households with farmlands over 3,500 m 2 resort to seasonal migration, while those with between 1,650 and 3,000 m 2 tend to move permanently when faced with water stress challenges 90 . Many people from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, who have been affected by changes in precipitation due to climate change, have moved to the United States in search of employment and other opportunities 13 . The Tonga people of Southern Zambia and the Maasai people of Kenya also engage in annual migration due to water stress, seeking water and pasture for their livestock 10 .

Similarly, drought is common in most African nations, especially those within North Africa and the Sahel regions, affecting about one-third of the African population and leaving them with limited food and water for their families and livestock 71 , 101 . For example, drought and insufficient rainfall in Western Sahara, Ghana, Senegal, and Burkina Faso have forced people to frequently migrate to urban areas 69 . Additionally, sociodemographic dynamics, such as gender, sex, age, migration status, and household size, also influence migration decisions 102 . In Asia, for example, heads of households are more likely to move than other household members to provide for their families 103 . Families in the Bolivian and Ecuadorian Andes, who are primarily unemployed and heavily dependent on agriculture, have been severely affected by drought, compelling them to move to other rural areas or neighboring cities 86 .

Moreover, a 10% reduction in agricultural production due to droughts has resulted in a 2% growth in migration from LAC to the USA 67 . Furthermore, recent droughts in the Middle East have further strained already scarce water resources, leading to low wheat production, which sustains most families in the region, and triggering migration to cities 94 . Recurrent droughts caused by climate change also impact South Asia, posing threats to people’s livelihoods and forcing them to decide whether to migrate as a family or adapt to changing environmental conditions 93 .

Floods and sea-level rise

Floods and sea-level rise occurred 97 and 126 times, respectively, in the Global South in 2021 (Table 2 ). These events are primarily associated with increased precipitation and the melting of mountains and polar glaciers, including those in the Andes of South America 104 , Papua in New Guinea, and Puncak Jaya in Indonesia 105 , Africa’s Kilimanjaro, Kenya, and Ruwenzori Mountains 106 , and Himalayan Nepal, India, Bhutan, China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 107 . Flooding is a major consequence of climate change, forcing people to flee flood-prone areas to avoid loss of life and property damage 38 .

In Africa, Lagos and Accra are prone to recurrent flooding during heavy rains 108 . Likewise, Nairobi is also susceptible to flooding in the rainy season, often leaving many people homeless, especially in vulnerable slum areas where water-borne diseases and malaria are prevalent 109 . In South Asia, floods caused by climate change expose people to diseases like dengue fever, malaria, and cholera. These disasters are a result of climate change and inadequate urban planning, which lead to flooding after prolonged downpours 103 . Those affected are often forced to endure recurrent floods as they lack alternative places to go, other than returning to their rural homes that lack jobs and basic infrastructure 108 . In Saudi Arabia, for instance, floods in the past decade, particularly in Jeddah coastal city, caused by storm surges, have resulted in casualties, property damage, and significant displacements 110 . Torrential rains affecting cities in India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh lead to flooding, affecting over 46 million individuals annually 60 . Displacement is a common outcome in these countries, although many people have developed resilience due to the short-term nature of these floods 10 .

Rising sea levels, like floods, are a significant driver of migration for coastal populations. It is estimated that coastal risks will increase over the 21st century due to rising sea levels, disrupting people’s lives, cultural and natural heritage, livelihoods, ecosystems, food security, and infrastructure 57 , 60 , Even if global warming were to cease, these risks would escalate, compounded by extreme sea-level rise 111 . Coastal wetlands are also at high risk of sea-level rise, resulting in significant losses before 2100 9 . However, in the case of rising sea levels, planned migration over a more extended period becomes possible 90 .

Worldwide, about 450 million individuals are living at low elevations (below 20 m) and near coastlines (within 20 km) 80 . Regions most vulnerable to the adverse consequences of sea-level rise include LAC, with a significant portion of the land being used for agriculture 99 . A 1-meter rise in sea level would affect 5–7% of the populations in the Bahamas, Guyana, and Suriname 112 . The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta in Bangladesh is also one of the most affected areas, leading to great displacements of people 113 . In areas where agricultural lands have been submerged, people have been forced to relocate due to food scarcity, salinization, and reduced soil fertility 10 , 52 . It is expected that by the end of this century, sea levels will rise by between 30 and 150 cm in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting in the submergence of most of the Maldives, as well as cities like Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh 114 .

Implications and recommendations

The results of this study detailed the tripartite environmental factors predisposing individuals in the Global South to migrate: increasing temperatures, water stress and draught, and floods and sea-level rise. The reviewed literature primarily focused on internal migration 13 , 89 , 115 , given the complexity involved in assessing and predicting transboundary migration dynamics. The results demonstrated the dire impacts of climate change on the environment that require immediate addressing 116 . Despite having relatively lower contributions to global GHG emissions compared to Global North countries, the Global South experiences some of the most severe consequences of regional and global climatic changes 41 , 83 .

Another study found that extreme temperatures significantly impact both internal and external migration and their patterns 4 , which aligns with prior research findings 16 . In the Philippines, for example, temperature rise increases outmigration rates 92 . Similarly, in Uganda, the expected temperature at the origin affects migration flows 117 , and higher temperatures lead to high migration rates in China 110 , Zambia 70 , and the Arab world 63 , 65 .

Water stress and drought are also significant push factors behind migration 17 , 111 , corroborating previous studies. Basu and Shaw 54 reported a significant link between water scarcity and human migration in India. In Zambia, migration is influenced by water stress and food insecurity 70 . Among riparian households in Bangladesh, drought, and saltwater intrusion influence decisions to migrate to the mainland or cities 41 . Water stress also shapes climate-induced migration in Iran 18 , Kenya, Ethiopia 109 , Israel, Jordan, and Syria 94 , as well as several African countries 102 , 118 .

Lastly, floods and rising sea levels increase the likelihood of internal migration due to displacements, loss of homes, and livelihoods 4 , 97 , 111 , 112 , 119 , providing support to the existing literature. In Ghana, for instance, floods trigger migration due to disruptions in livelihoods and mobility, damage to housing, and lack of access to markets and services 108 . Similar findings that floods do increase the likelihood and frequency of migration have also been reported in Nigeria 115 , Uganda 117 , Tanzania 23 , Mali 116 , South Africa 72 , India 54 , 103 , 113 , Indonesia 105 , Vietnam 120 , Thailand 121 , Bangladesh 41 , 59 , Nepal, and Pakistan 57 , 93 .

Adaptive measures to combat climate change as a major trigger of migration have been developed in various contexts. However, their comprehensive implementation in the Global South is hindered by socioeconomic factors 114 . For example, in regions where farmers rely on agriculture, the high cost of implementing relevant adaptation strategies is prohibitive due to the low socioeconomic status and income of the population 85 . Migration becomes a personal adaptation strategy when adapting in place is no longer an option 119 . It is predicted that by 2050, migration as an adaptation to climate change will be implemented by 200 million people, either voluntarily or forcibly 122 . However, due to the expenses and resource requirements of migration, individuals and families with limited means may be unable to relocate, forcing them to face the challenges of climate change involuntarily 123 . Some individuals will choose to face these challenges due to their cultural ties to the land and community 124 , while others may seek opportunities in nearby cities as an alternative for livelihood generation 90 , 111 . The lack of adaptive strategies, especially among individuals of low socioeconomic status, makes them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to a lack of assets, knowledge, and networks 125 . Therefore, as the risks of climate change intensify, there is a growing need to provide support for households that have made the decision to migrate, as well as to implement adaptation strategies for those who are unable or choose not to relocate 13 .

One intervention that governments can employ to assist communities in coping with climate migration is the relocation of affected people to better and more habitable locations 41 , 44 . People living in areas affected by droughts, limited water resources, or frequent floods in low-lying areas should be relocated to areas with sufficient water or minimal flood risk 126 . However, relocation requires resources and should be adequately planned with input from affected populations to avoid unanticipated challenges 125 , 127 . Previous relocations have failed due to loss of livelihood, cultural heritage, and social networks, often resulting in abject poverty for the relocated people 123 . Governments must strive to provide sources of livelihood for the relocated communities, although many developing countries struggle to implement such actions due to limited resources 122 .

Various initiatives have been launched to address international migration caused by climate change, such as the Task Force on Displacement, the Global Compact for Migration, the UN Network on Migration, the Kampala Convention, and the Cancun Adaptation Framework. While their direct focus on climate change varies, each has contributed to highlighting climate change as a fundamental driver of migration that must be promptly addressed 128 . For instance, under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the Paris Agreement, mobility has been conceptualized as a strategy for adaptation. Most recently, the Nansen Initiative, which evolved into the Platform for Disaster Displacement, has specifically aimed to address the needs of cross-border migrants displaced by natural disasters 129 . These initiatives encourage countries to commit to addressing the adverse effects of climate change on migrants and establish measures to acknowledge migration due to climate change, plan relocations, and promote collaboration to mitigate associated challenges 120 , 130 .

Moreover, various approaches have been developed to help countries manage the challenges of climate migration 131 . For example, the International Organization for Migration maintains a twofold approach that requires nations to appraise their climate change policies to distinguish between migration and climate migration policies effectively. It also involves reviewing existing tools for managing migration to understand how they can be restructured, and developing new tools to respond adequately to climate change-induced migration. Researchers have also advocated for social protection measures to manage climate migration, supporting people who choose to stay in their communities to maintain their livelihoods, and addressing the drivers of migration that force people to engage in maladaptive migration 132 . However, until recently, there has been limited cooperation between countries in the Global South concerning fostering safe migration or safeguarding the rights of climate migrants in receiving areas 25 .

Therefore, it is essential to identify localities at risk of depopulation to effectively coordinate migration and relocation. Potential relocation areas for displaced individuals must be extensively assessed to ensure they can sustain increased populations without further hardships. Countries must share the responsibility of planning, identifying suitable relocation areas, and providing support to relocated individuals in host societies 118 . Additionally, collaboration between origin and destination countries is crucial for planning future climate change-induced migration in a way that benefits both nations 109 . Conventions like the Organization of African Unity in 1963, the Bangkok Principles in 1966, the San Jose Declaration in 1994, the Kampala Convention in 2009, and the Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Environment, and Climate Change (KMD) in 2022 aimed to protect migrants and internally displaced individuals affected by climate change through humanitarian assistance, proper planning, remediation, community engagement, and proper documentation 133 , 134 . The KMD, for instance, has enjoined East African countries to enhance cooperation, facilitate capacity building, and encourage multi-partner financing to prevent, minimize, and address the displacement of vulnerable communities caused by climate change 135 . Similar measures can be implemented across the entire Global South to help address the challenges of climate migration 9 , 62 , 136 .

Also, due to the limited capacity of Global South countries to address climate change impacts and the limited support from developed countries in assisting them in coping with these adverse effects 35 , despite the obligations set forth by the Paris Agreement, public-private partnerships, philanthropic donors, and international organizations should establish and provide increased support to people living in areas prone to sea-level rise, flooding, and drought. This support should also extend to those who have limited financial and adaptive resources to avert prolonged displacement and migration 19 . However, developing countries must still take prompt actions and measures to combat climate change and its effects, and consider climate-induced migration a critical problem that must be addressed immediately within their countries and regions 117 .

Finally, the development and implementation of measures such as long-term planning, effective strategies for absorption of shocks and rapid recovery, and innovative adaptation solutions can contribute to enhancing the resilience of communities and avoiding the negative impacts of migration 42 , 107 . Strengthening planning, absorption, recovery, and adaptation capacities requires concerted efforts across different sectors 44 , 79 . These efforts should include upgrading infrastructure systems and increasing their resilience 108 , improving household economic capacities 29 , 88 , enhancing the efficiency of resource consumption and production 25 , 99 , engaging local communities in planning and decision-making processes 118 , 134 , utilizing modeling and scenario-making techniques for planning under different future scenarios, and employing smart solutions such as early warning systems to facilitate better response and absorption capacities 136 , 137 . However, implementing these measures and strategies may present challenges, as Global South countries and communities may struggle to afford the adaptation costs, and have limited access to skilled human resources and necessary technologies 7 , 11 . Therefore, cooperation with countries in the Global North is essential, including financial support and technology transfer. Such cooperation can strengthen partnerships and contribute to achieving global goals (SDG 17). Furthermore, considering the potential implications of large-scale migration for security, it can promote peace and justice (SDG 16). In addition to support from Global North countries, the assistance of donors and international organizations will be crucial.

Interacting with high levels of vulnerability, climatic hazards have contributed to humanitarian emergencies, causing migrations and displacements. The impacts have been particularly severe in Global South countries where most of the world’s population lives. As most of the future population growth will occur in the Global South and given the projected increase in the intensity and frequency of climate-induced hazards, these countries may experience even more severe impacts in the coming decades. Such impacts could result in massive internal and external migration flows, which would have significant implications for domestic and international security, economic development, human rights, and justice.

In this review, we have demonstrated how three types of climate-induced stressors—increasing temperatures, water stress and drought, and floods and sea-level rise—have resulted in internal and transboundary migration across different countries of the Global South. Further, we have discussed how projected climatic changes will further increase the severity and frequency of adverse weather events with serious consequences for internal and external migration flows.

Climate-induced stressors can lead to gradual or abrupt migration patterns and dynamics, depending on their nature. Increasing temperatures and water stress are more likely to drive gradual migration patterns by eroding livelihood options for communities. For instance, extended periods of water scarcity may leave communities that rely on agriculture with no choice but to migrate. On the other hand, abrupt migration may occur when rapid-onset adverse events, such as major floods become recurrent, rendering places uninhabitable. At the same time, adaptation becomes challenging when slow-onset stressors, such as temperature rise and prolonged drought, push the area beyond its tipping point and make it uninhabitable. Adopting strategies to enhance communities’ coping and adaptive capacities can minimize the need for migration in the face of both gradual and abrupt changes.

This review has revealed that climate-induced stressors often result in migration through indirect pathways. Institutional, political, and socio-economic factors play significant roles in individuals’ and households’ decisions to move. It is crucial to note the differential impact of climate-induced stressors on vulnerable groups, such as women, minorities, and low-income groups. Therefore, adaptation plans and strategies to address migration issues should acknowledge and account for differences among various socio-demographic groups, avoiding generic solutions that may leave some groups behind.

Finally, it is essential to recognize that, depending on the scale of climatic changes and the response/coping capacity at the local level, adaptation strategies and measures may sometimes fail to work. Under such circumstances, voluntary or forced migration becomes inevitable. In these cases, migration can be considered an adaptation strategy to minimize exposure to risks and prevent the loss of human lives and properties. When migration is unavoidable, careful planning is necessary to ensure that migrating individuals and communities can access the necessary resources to sustain their livelihoods. Additionally, social and cultural issues must be considered to avoid potential conflicts with host communities that may also be facing difficulties due to climate change.

We hope that the insights reported in this study will inform actions toward better managing climate-induced migration patterns and dynamics in the Global South. One limitation of this study is the exclusion of gray literature, which often covers issues related to the Global South. Therefore, we recommend that future studies go beyond reviewing academic literature and include gray literature and news reports on climate change and migration patterns in the Global South. This would provide a more comprehensive picture that better reflects the dynamics of climate-induced migration in the Global South.

This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the existing academic literature on climate migration in the Global South. The data for this study were systematically gathered from peer-reviewed articles, selected based on their relevance to the research questions. The databases used for searching the articles were Scopus and Web of Science as the major global databases of peer-reviewed literature. The search focused on literature related to climate change and migration as influenced by tripartite environmental factors (increasing temperatures, water stress and droughts, and floods and sea-level rise). The search strings used in searching for literature in the “Title, Abstract, and Author Keywords” are provided in Supplementary Table 1 . Global South countries comprise 134 nations in LAC, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and the Caribbean 137 .

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) technique was employed to guide the literature search and selection. Originally designed as a tool to address practical and conceptual issues in meta-analyses and systematic reviews 138 , 139 , 140 , the PRISMA method is increasingly employed for high-quality reviews and to synthesize available empirical data 95 , 141 , 142 . The quality of the research criteria identified for this study was assessed to ensure accurate conclusions 143 .

Studies were considered relevant if they vividly described the research topic and contributed to achieving the research goal. To be included, a publication must meet the following criteria: (a) studied climate change impacts and their connection to migration in Global South countries, (b) provided approaches for addressing climate change-induced migration in the Global South. Publications were excluded if they (a) were not related to the research topic, (b) did not focus on the link between climate change/stressors and migration, and (c) were in languages other than English. The summaries and abstracts of the most relevant publications were screened based on the inclusion guidelines. Data from the articles were extracted and recorded on a spreadsheet, including the study objective, key findings, concept definitions, conclusions, and recommendations. Initially, 4974 publications were identified. Among them, 1627 records were duplicates. Additionally, two publications were detected and retracted by Zotero. Rayyan was used to perform the inclusion and exclusion process, while Zotero and Google Scholar were utilized to download the full text of the final selected papers. Out of the 3317 records screened based on title and abstract, 3,276 were found to be irrelevant. Further, 48 records were selected based on full-text retrieval, with one record not being available in full text. Finally, 47 publications were selected for data analysis and systemization (see Supplementary Table 2 ). Figure 2 provides an overview of the literature search and selection process.

It shows articles’ identification, screening, and exclusion/inclusion criteria.

For the analysis, climate change drivers (factors or themes) that influence migration in the Global South were categorized using content analysis. Evidence from various studies on coping strategies employed to adapt to climate change and migration, as influenced by the tripartite environmental and geographical factors, was collected using an information extraction sheet in Microsoft Excel. The inductive content analysis technique was used due to the lack of previous systematic reviews on this fragmented topic 144 , making it the most suitable method for synthesizing information 145 . This technique allows for a comprehensive extraction of insights from previous literature without preconceived bias. However, it is a time-consuming technique and involves a certain level of subjectivity in the analysis process 144 . The inductive content analysis involved identifying and categorizing themes related to the intersection of climate and migration while reading the first paper. Similar themes that were identified are documented and synthesized with those found in the explored documents. New themes were established as new issues emerged from subsequent papers that did not align with the existing categories.

Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available as supplementary information.

WMO (World Meteorological Organization). Past Eight Years Confirmed to Be the Eight Warmest on Record . (WMO, 2023).

Brown, K. Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows . https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/2020-tied-for-warmest-year-on-record-nasa-analysis-shows . (accessed: 14 January 2022). (NASA, 2020)

Sands, L. This July 4 was hot. Earth’s hottest day on record, in fact. The Washington Post (2023, July 6).

Clarke, B., Otto, F., Stuart-Smith, R. & Harrington, L. Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective. Environ. Res. Clim. 1 , 012001 (2022).

Article   Google Scholar  

Serdeczny, O. et al. Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions. Region. Environ. Change 17 , 1585–1600 (2017).

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). AR6 Synthesis Report Climate change . (IPCC, 2023).

IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies). Displacement in a Changing Climate: Localized Humanitarian Action at the Forefront of the Climate Crisis . (IFRC, Geneva, 2021).

IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre). Global Report on Internal Displacement 2021 . (IDMC, Geneva, 2021).

Pörtner, H., et al. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability . (IPCC, Cambridge University Press, 2022).

Semenza, J. C. & Ebi, K. L. Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations, and the tourism industry. J. Travel Med. 26 , 5 (2019).

Baldwin, A. Climate change, migration, and the crisis of humanism. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 8 , e460 (2017).

Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L. & Strobl, E. Climatic change and rural–urban migration: the case of Sub-Saharan Africa. J. Urban Economics 60 , 3 (2006).

Warn, E. & Adamo, S. The impact of climate change: migration and cities in South America. IOM J. 63 , 2 (2014).

Google Scholar  

Podesta, J. The climate crisis, migration, and refugees. Brookings (2019, July 25). https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-climate-crisis-migration-and-refugees/ . (accessed: 13 February 2023).

Ajibade, I., Sullivan, M. & Haeffner, M. Why climate migration is not managed retreat: Six justifications. Glob. Environ. Change 65 , 102187 (2020).

Cattaneo, C. & Peri, G. The migration response to increasing temperatures. J. Dev. Econ. 122 , 127–146 (2016).

Parrish, R. et al. A critical analysis of the drivers of human migration patterns in the presence of climate change: a new conceptual model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17 , 6036 (2020).

Mianabadi, A., Davary, K., Kolahi, M. & Fisher, J. Water/climate nexus environmental rural-urban migration and coping strategies. J. Environ. Plan. Manage. 65 , 852–876 (2021).

Smirnov, O., Lahav, G., Orbell, J., Zhang, M. H. & Xiao, T. Y. Climate change, drought, and potential environmental migration flows under different policy scenarios. Int. Migr. Rev. 57 , 36–67 (2023).

Yang, H., Krantzberg, G., Dong, X. & Hu, X. Environmental outcomes of climate migration and local governance: an empirical study of Ontario. Int. J. Clim. Change Strateg. Manage. 6 , 1–20 (2023).

CAS   Google Scholar  

IOM (International Organization on Migration). Discussion Note: Migration and the Environment—Ninety-Fourth Session . (IOM, 2007).

McLeman, R. Thresholds in climate migration. Popul. Environ. 39 , 319–338 (2017).

Ocello, C., Petrucci, A., Testa, M. R. & Vignoli, D. Environmental aspects of internal migration in Tanzania. Popul. Environ. 37 , 99–108 (2015).

Schewel, K., Dickerson, S., Madson, B., & Nagle Alverio, G. Evaluating Climate-Related Migration Forecasting Models . (USAID, 2022).

Hidayati, I. et al. Migration management to reduce the risk of climate change: government perspective. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Science 739 , 012042 (2021).

Gröger, A. & Zylberberg, Y. Internal labor migration as a shock coping strategy: evidence from a typhoon. Am. Econ J. Appl. Econ. 8 , 123–153 (2016).

CPRD (Center for Participatory Research and Development). Climate-Induced Displacement and Migration: Policy Gaps and Policy Alternative . (UNFCC, 2015).

Lilleør, H. B. & Van den Broeck, K. Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs. Glob. Environ. Change 21 , S70–S81 (2011).

Marotzke, J., Semmann, D. & Milinski, M. The economic interaction between climate change mitigation, climate migration and poverty. Nat. Clim. Change 10 , 518–525 (2020).

Sills, S. J. Philippine labor migration to Taiwan: Social, political, demographic, and economic dimensions. Migr. Lett. 4 , 1–14 (2014).

Gemenne, F., Zickgraf, C., Hut, E., & Castillo Betancourt, T. Forced Displacement Related to the Impacts of Climate Change and Disasters . (UNHCR, 2021).

Naser, M. Climate change, environmental degradation, and migration: a complex nexus. William & Mary Environ. Law Policy Rev. 36 , 713 (2015).

World Bank. Groundswell Report . (World Bank, Washington DC, 2021).

McAdam, J. Climate Change, Forced Migration, and International Law . 123 (Oxford University Press, 2012).

Flahaux, M.-L. & De Haas, H. African migration: trends, patterns, drivers. Comp. Migr. Stud. 4 , 1 (2016).

Ferri, G. & Borsato, R. Urbanization and international migration from Africa. SSRN Electr. J. 3 , 121–134 (2018).

Almulhim, A. I. & Cobbinah, P. B. Can rapid urbanization be sustainable? The case of Saudi Arabian cities. Habitat Int. 139 , 102884 (2023).

Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J. & Nicholls, R. J. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding—a global assessment. PLoS ONE 10 , e0118571 (2016).

Morris, D. W. On the effect of international human migration on nations’ abilities to attain CO 2 emission-reduction targets. PLoS ONE 16 , e0258087 (2021).

Article   CAS   Google Scholar  

Almulhim, A. I. & Cobbinah, P. B. Framing resilience in Saudi Arabian cities: On climate change and urban policy. Sustain. Cities Soc. 101 , 105172 (2024).

Leal Filho, W. et al. Understanding the socio‐economic impacts of climate change on riparian communities in Bangladesh. River Res. Appl. 38 , 1884–1892 (2022a).

Satterthwaite, D. et al. Building resilience to climate change in informal settlements. One Earth 2 , 143–156 (2020).

Leal Filho, W. et al. An analysis of climate change and health hazards: results from an international study. Int. J. Clim. Change Strateg. Manage. 14 , 375–398 (2022b).

Singh, C. Migration as a driver of changing household structures: implications for local livelihoods and adaptation. Migr. Dev. 8 , 301–319 (2019).

Global Carbon Budget Report. Global Carbon Budget | Future Earth . (Future Earth, 2022).

Calvin, K. V., Beach, R., Gurgel, A., Labriet, M. & Loboguerrero Rodriguez, A. M. Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America. Energy Econ. 56 , 615–624 (2016).

ACMI (Africa Climate Mobility Initiative). Voices from the Frontlines . ACMI . https://africa.climatemobility.org/overview (Accessed: May 22, 2023). (2022)

Raitzer, D. A. et al. Southeast Asia and the Economics of Global Climate Stabilization . (Asian Development Bank, 2015).

Ghosh, R. C. & Orchiston, C. A systematic review of climate migration research: gaps in the existing literature. SN Social Sci. 2 , 5 (2022).

Siddiqui, M. R. & Hossain, M. A. Climate change and migration in coastal areas in South Asia. Clim. Action 3 , 132–143 (2019).

Thirumalai, K., DiNezio, P. N., Okumura, Y. & Deser, C. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming. Nat. Commun. 8 , 1 (2017).

Yan, S. & Alvi, S. Food security in South Asia under climate change and economic policies. Int. J. Clim. Change Strateg. Manage. 14 , 237–251 (2022).

McMahon, K. & Gray, C. Climate change, social vulnerability, and child nutrition in South Asia. Global Environ. Change 71 , 102414 (2021).

Basu, M., Shaw, R., Abedin, M. A., Habiba, U. & Shaw, R. In Community, Environment and Disaster Risk Management . Vol. 13, 187–211 (Emerald, 2013).

Kamal, U. Climate change and global environmental politics: north-south divide. Environ. Policy Law 47 , 106–114 (2017).

Mayer, B. Governing international climate change-induced migration in Southeast Asia. SSRN Electron. J. 4 , 89–99 (2011).

Relief Web. Pakistan Monsoon Floods 2022 . Islamic Relief Pakistan. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-monsoon-floods-2022-islamic-relief-pakistan-12-october-2022 (Accessed: May 22, 2023).

Bell, A. R. et al. Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines is projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100. Environ. Res. Lett. 16 , 2 (2021).

Rahaman, M. A. et al. In Handbook of Climate Change Management . 1865–1882, (Springer Int. Publishing, 2021).

Shah, S. M. H. et al. A review of the flood hazard and risk management in the South Asian Region, particularly Pakistan. Sci. African 10 , e00651 (2020).

Erdiwansyah, M., Mamat, R., Sani, M. S. M., Khoerunnisa, F. & Kadarohman, A. Target and demand for renewable energy across 10 ASEAN countries by 2040. Electricity J. 32 , 106670 (2019).

Ahmed, M. & Suphachalasai, S. Assessing the costs of climate change and adaptation in South Asia. Asian Dev. Bank (2017).

Wodon, Q. et al. In People on the Move in a Changing Climate. Vol. 2, 111–134. (Springer, Netherlands, 2014).

IOM. IOM Launches Its First Strategy for Gulf Countries 2021–2024 Focusing on Migration Governance, Mobility, and Resilience . (IOM Regional Office for Middle East and North Africa, 2022).

Keynoush, B. Climate-induced migration in the GCC states: a looming challenge. Middle East Institute. https://www.mei.edu/publications/climate-induced-migration-gcc-states-looming-challenge . (Accessed: May 22, 2023). (2023).

Labban, A., Morsy, M., Abdeldym, A., Basset, H. & Al-Mutairi, M. Assessment of changes in heatwave aspects over Saudi Arabia during the last four decades. Atmosphere 14 , 1667 (2023).

Hinkel, J. et al. Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. Region. Environ. Change 12 , 207–224 (2017).

WMO. State of the Climate in Africa 2019 . (WMO, Geneva, 2020).

Conte, B. Climate change and migration: the case of Africa. SSRN Electronic J . (2022). CESifo Working Paper No. 9948, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4226415 or https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4226415

Simatele, D. & Simatele, M. Migration as an adaptive strategy to climate variability: a study of the Tonga-speaking people of Southern Zambia. Disasters 39 , 4 (2015).

Hermans, K. & Garbe, L. Droughts, livelihoods, and human migration in northern Ethiopia. Region. Environ. Change 19 , 1101–1111 (2019).

Adeyeye, K., Gibberd, J. & Chakwizira, J. Water marginality in rural and peri-urban communities. J. Clean. Prod. 273 , 122594 (2020).

Regan, P. & Kim, H. Water scarcity, climate adaptation, and armed conflict: insights from Africa. Region. Environ. Change 20 , 129 (2020).

McNamara, K., Westoby, R. & Chandra, A. Exploring climate-driven non-economic loss and damage in the Pacific islands. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sust. 50 , 1–11 (2021).

Parsons, C. The Pacific Islands. The Front Line in the Battle Against Climate Change . https://new.nsf.gov/science-matters/pacific-islands-front-line-battle-against-climate (May 22, 2023). (National Science Foundation, 2022).

IPCC. Summary for Policymakers . https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf (November 16, 2020). (IPCC, 2018).

Oakes, R., Milan, A. & Campbell, J. Kiribati: Climate Change and Migration . (United Nations University, 2016).

Duijndam, S. J., Botzen, W. J. W., Hagedoorn, L. C. & Aerts, J. Anticipating sea-level rise and human migration: a review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research. Wiley Int. Rev.-Clim. Change 13 , e747 (2022).

Remling, E. Migration as climate adaptation? Exploring discourses amongst development actors in the Pacific island region. Region. Environ. Change 20 , 3 (2020).

McMichael, C. & Katonivualiku, M. Thick temporalities of planned relocation in Fiji. Geoforum 108 , 286–294 (2020).

Stratford, E., Farbotko, C. & Lazrus, H. T. Sovereignty and climate change: considering Fenua, the Archipelago and emigration. Island Stud. J. 8 , 67–83 (2013).

Feld, B. & Galiani, S. Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: policy options and research priorities. Latin Am. Econ. Rev. 24 , 14 (2015).

WMO. State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean . (WMO, Geneva, 2022).

Exbrayat, J. & Williams, M. Quantifying the net contribution of the historical Amazonian deforestation to climate change: net deforestation in the Amazon Basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42 , 2968–2976 (2015).

Murray-Tortarolo, G. N. & Salgado, M. M. Drought as a driver of Mexico-US migration. Clim. Change 164 , 3 (2021).

Gray, C. L. Environment, land, and rural out-migration in the Southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Dev. 37 , 457–468 (2019).

Bermeo, S., Leblang, D. & Nagle Alverio, G. Rural Poverty, Climate Change, and Family Migration from Guatemala . (Brookings, 2022).

Galindo, L. M. & Samaniego, J. The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stylized facts. CEPAL Rev. 2010 , 69–96 (2015).

Baptista, E. A., Abel, G. J. & Campos, J. Internal migration in Brazil using circular visualization. Region. Stud. Region. Sci. 5 , 361–364 (2018).

Kaenzig, R. & Piguet, E. Migration and climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean. Region. Impact Environ. Change Migr. 2 , 155–176 (2014).

Giannini, A. Climate change comes to the Sahel. Nat. Clim. Change 5 , 720–721 (2015).

Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M., Cai, R., Feng, S. & Licker, R. Climate variability and migration in the Philippines. Popul. Environ. 38 , 286–308 (2017).

Maharjan, A. et al. Migration and household adaptation in climate-sensitive hotspots in South Asia. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 6 , 1–16 (2020).

Weinthal, E., Zawahri, N. & Sowers, J. Securitizing water, climate, and migration in Israel, Jordan, and Syria. Int. Environ. Agreements Polit. Law Econ. 15 , 293–307 (2015).

Almulhim, A. I., Bibri, S. E., Sharifi, A., Ahmad, S. & Almatar, K. M. Emerging trends and knowledge structures of urbanization and environmental sustainability: a regional perspective. Sustainability 14 , 13195 (2022).

Boretti, A. & Rosa, L. Reassessing the projections of the World Water Development Report. Npj Clean Water 2 , 15 (2019).

Kaczan, D. J. & Orgill-Meyer, J. The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights. Clim. Change 158 , 281–300 (2020).

Morante-Carballo, F., Montalván-Burbano, N., Quiñonez-Barzola, X., Jaya-Montalvo, M. & Carrión-Mero, P. What do we know about water scarcity in semi-arid zones? A global analysis and research trends. Water 14 , 2685 (2022).

Schneider, S. Family Farming in Latin America and the Caribbean: Looking for New Paths of Rural Development and Food Security . 1–46 (FAO, 2016).

Oliveira, J. & Pereda, P. The impact of climate change on internal migration in Brazil. J. Environ. Econ. and Manage 103 , 102340 (2020).

Gan, T. Y. et al. Possible climate change/variability and human impacts, the vulnerability of drought-prone regions, water resources, and capacity building for Africa. Hydro. Sci. J. 13 , 1209–1226 (2016).

Gubhaju, B. & De Jong, G. F. Individual versus household migration decision rules: gender and marital status differences in intentions to migrate in South Africa. Inter. Migr. 47 , 31–61 (2009).

Srivastava, S., Thalil, M., Rashmi, R. & Paul, R. Association of family structure with gain and loss of household headship among older adults in India: analysis of panel data. PLoS ONE 16 , e0252722 (2021).

Masiokas, M. H. et al. A review of the current state and recent changes of the Andean cryosphere. Front. Earth Sci. 8 , 1–27 (2020).

Buchori, I. et al. Adaptation to coastal flooding and inundation: Mitigations and migration pattern in Semarang City, Indonesia. Ocean Coastal Manage. 163 , 445–455 (2018).

Bega, S. The climate crisis causes the meltdown of Africa’s three mountain glaciers. The Mail & Guardian . https://mg.co.za/environment/2021-10-28-climate-crisis-causes-meltdown-of-africas-three-mountain-glaciers/ (Accessed: 3 July 2023). (2021)

Mani, M. Glaciers of the Himalayas: Climate Change, Black Carbon, and Regional Resilience . 1st edn., p. 12. (World Bank Group, 2021).

Andreasen, M. H., Agergaard, J., Møller-Jensen, L., Oteng-Ababio, M. & Yiran, G. A. B. Mobility disruptions in Accra: recurrent flooding, fragile infrastructure, and climate change. Sustainability 14 , 13790 (2022).

Leal Filho, W. et al. Assessing causes and implications of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. Environ. Sci. & Policy 150 , 103577 (2023).

Yue, S., Wang, C., Liu, H. & Hao, Z. How does climate change affect migration intention? Evidence from China. Applied Econ. Letters . 1−12. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2023.2272696 (2023).

Hauer, M. E. et al. Sea-level rise and human migration. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1 , 28–39 (2020).

Strauss, B., & Kulp, S. Sea-level rise threats in the Caribbean data, tools, and analysis for a more resilient future. Clim. Central 1–28 (2018).

Kay, S. et al. Modeling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change. Environ. Sci. Process. Impacts 17 , 1311–1322 (2015).

Harrison, B. J., Daron, J. D., Palmer, M. D. & Weeks, J. H. Future sea-level rise projections for tide gauge locations in South Asia. Environ. Res. Comm. 3 , 115003 (2021).

Ekoh, S. S., Teron, L. & Ajibade, I. Climate change and coastal megacities: adapting through mobility. Glob. Environ. Change-Human and Policy Dimen. 80 , 102666 (2023).

Defrance, D., Delesalle, E. & Gubert, F. Migration response to drought in Mali. An analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period. Environ. Dev. Econ. 28 , 2 (2022).

Twinomuhangi, R., Sseviiri, H. & Kato, A. M. Contextualising environmental and climate change migration in Uganda. Local Environ. 28 , 580–601 (2023).

Mpandeli, S. et al. Migration under climate change in southern Africa: a nexus planning perspective. Sustainability 12 , 4722 (2020).

Kakinuma, K. et al. Flood-induced population displacements in the world. Environ. Res. Lett. 15 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc586 (2020).

Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L. & Bernauer, T. Environmental stressors and migration: evidence from Vietnam. World Dev. 79 , 197–210 (2016).

Quiñones, E. J., Liebenehm, S. & Sharma, R. Left home high and dry-reduced migration in response to repeated droughts in Thailand and Vietnam. Popul. Environ. 42 , 579–621 (2021).

Asrat, F., Pearson, B. C., Connolly, M. H. & Tiruneh, G. Spatial analysis of climate driver impacts on Sub-Saharan African migration patterns in Tanzania. GIS Spatial Anal. 1 , 1–14 (2022).

Tabe, T. Climate change migration and displacement: learning from past relocations in the Pacific. Social Sci. 8 , 218 (2019).

Benveniste, H., Oppenheimer, M. & Fleurbaey, M. Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12 , 634–641 (2022).

Garimella, P. P. Planned relocation: an unusual case for developed countries. Curr. Res. Environ. Sust. 4 , 100177 (2022).

Lindegaard, L. S. Lessons from climate-related planned relocations: the case of Vietnam. Clim. Dev. 14 , 1–10 (2019).

Nagle Alverio, G., Hoagland, S., Coughlan de Perez, E. & Mach, K. The role of international organizations in equitable and just planned relocation. J. Environ. Stud. Sci. 11 , 511–522 (2021).

Ergin, M. Drought-induced migrations in Syria and Turkey. Interdiscip. Stud. Literat. Environ. 24 , 257–273 (2017).

Nah, A. M., Bennett, K., Ingleton, D. & Savage, J. A research agenda for the protection of human rights defenders. J. Human Rights Practice 5 , 401–420 (2014).

United Nations. Migration Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Building Resilient Communities is Needed Now More than Ever . (United Nations Network on Migration, 2021).

Stojanov, R., Duží, B., Kelman, I., Němec, D. & Procházka, D. Local perceptions of climate change impacts and migration patterns in Malé, Maldives. Geog. J. 183 , 370–385 (2016).

Silchenko, D. & Murray, U. Migration and climate change – The role of social protection. Clim. Risk Manage. 39 , 100472 (2023).

African Union. African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention). Right to Education Initiative (African Union, 2009).

Beyani, C. A view from inside the kitchen of the Kampala Convention: the modernisation of the international legal regime for the protection of internally displaced persons. SSRN Electron. J . (2020). Legal Studies Working Paper No. 17/, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3736788

EAC (East African Community). Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Environment and Climate Change. Intergov. Authority on Dev. (IGAD) in Eastern Africa (EAC, 2022).

Eakin, H. C., Lemos, M. C. & Nelson, D. R. Differentiating capacities as a means to sustainable climate change adaptation. Glob. Environ. Change 27 , 1–8 (2014).

Dados, N. & Connell, R. The Global South. Contexts 11 , 12–13 (2016).

Johansen, M. & Thomsen, S. F. Guidelines for reporting medical research: a critical appraisal. Int. Scholarly Res. Notices 2016 , 1–7 (2016).

Moher, D. et al. Preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA-P) statement. Syst. Rev. 4 , 46–53 (2015).

Page, M. J. et al. The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. Syst. Rev. 10 , 1 (2021).

Shamseer, L. et al. Preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015: elaboration and explanation. BMJ 349 , g7647–g7647 (2015).

Stewart, L. A. et al. Preferred reporting items for a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data. JAMA 313 , 1657 (2015).

Dos Santos, B. & Beavan, V. Qualitatively exploring hearing voices network support groups. J. Mental Health Training Edu. Pract. 10 , 26–38 (2015).

Vears, D. F. & Gillam, L. Inductive content analysis: a guide for beginning qualitative researchers. Focus Health Prof. Educ. Multi-Prof. J. 23 , 111–127 (2022).

Kyngäs, H. In The Application of Content Analysis in Nursing Science Research . 13–21 (Springer, Cham, 2020).

Download references

Acknowledgements

Sadly, Professor Saleemul Huq passed away on 28 October 2023 while preparing this manuscript. His invaluable contributions profoundly shaped this work. Our thoughts are with his loved ones and all who were touched by his remarkable life and work.

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Architecture and Planning, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, P.O. Box 1982, Dammam, 31451, Saudi Arabia

Abdulaziz I. Almulhim

Sanford School of Public Policy, Nicholas School of the Environment, School of Law, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

Gabriela Nagle Alverio

The IDEC Institute & Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability (NERPS), Hiroshima University, 1-5-1, Higashi-Hiroshima, 739-8529, Japan

Ayyoob Sharifi

Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Keio, Japan

International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Independent University, (IUB), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Saleemul Huq & Md Juel Mahmud

Directorate of Library Affairs, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, P.O. Box 1982, Dammam, 31451, Saudi Arabia

Shakil Ahmad

College of Architecture and Planning, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, P.O. Box 1982, Dammam, 31441, Saudi Arabia

Ismaila Rimi Abubakar

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Contributions

A.I.A.: conceptualization, investigation, methodology, data curation, formal analysis, validation, and writing - original draft preparation, writing—review & editing, resources, project administration. G.N.A: investigation, validation, writing—review & editing. A.S.: investigation, validation, original draft preparation. R.S.: validation, writing—review & editing. S.H.: investigation, validation, supervision, original draft preparation. M.J.M.: data curation, visualizing, writing—review & editing. S.A.: methodology, formal analysis. I.R.A.: investigation, validation, visualization, resources, writing—review & editing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Abdulaziz I. Almulhim .

Ethics declarations

Competing interests.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions.

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ .

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article.

Almulhim, A.I., Alverio, G.N., Sharifi, A. et al. Climate-induced migration in the Global South: an in depth analysis. npj Clim. Action 3 , 47 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-024-00133-1

Download citation

Received : 04 September 2023

Accepted : 30 April 2024

Published : 14 June 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-024-00133-1

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Today's Paper | June 18, 2024

Climate change.

PAKISTAN has been badly affected by climate change, leading to global warming, an unprecedented rise in temperature, and floods termed biblical. The contributing factors to climate change in Pakistan include deforestation, the state’s inability to control pollution, and non-compliance with the standard commercial waste disposal process.

Pakistan needs to contribute its share to the global fight against the adverse effects of climate change by initiating mitigating steps to reverse the process and at least stop the worsening of the damaging effects of climate change.

This calls for implementing a robust policy to save Pakistan from the effects of climate change. Natural disasters, like floods, will likely increase if we do not take action on climate change. And the time to do that is now. Any delay will be harmful.

Fatima Noor Karachi

Published in Dawn, December 10th, 2022

Celebrating Eid in its idealistic spirit

The ‘king’ in trouble

Efficient disposal.

Our top 6 picks from Ideas Eid Collection 2024

دوسری شادی کرنے والے مردوں کا پہلے ہی افیئر چل رہا ہوتا ہے، حبا علی خان

گلگت بلتستان کے دلکش رنگ: ‘پھول مت توڑنا ورنہ بارش ہوجائے گی’ (دوسری قسط)

فلسطین میں جاری نسل کشی مذہبی ہے یا صرف زمین پر قبضے کی جنگ؟

Let’s Talk About This: Why Do We Stay In Toxic Relationships?

From Strings to Pakkay Dost: Bilal Maqsood’s Journey As A Creative Artist

Budget 2024-25: Macroeconomic Impact

Pakistan Hopes Better Treatment Of Muslims In India: UN Envoy Munir Akram

What is involved in the G7’s $50 billion loan to Ukraine?

Pakistan Knocked Out Of T20 Worldcup In US

Pakistan Edition: How Much Will You Pay in Taxes?

Bangladesh Vs Netherlands: T20 World Cup

Dear visitor, the comments section is undergoing an overhaul and will return soon.

Latest Stories

Putin vows to support North Korea against US

Biden offers path to citizenship to spouses of US citizens

Gary Kirsten’s reported remarks on disunity within Pakistan team not shocking at all: Ahmed Shehzad

Donkey’s ears severed in Rawalpindi district in another case of animal cruelty

Haris Rauf calls for respect after video of heated argument with fan goes viral

Thailand passes marriage equality bill, first in Southeast Asia

Exclusive: Fawad Khan and Sanam Saeed’s Barzakh to premiere on Zindagi’s YouTube on July 19

‘I blacked out and fainted’: YouTuber Rahim Pardesi recalls harrowing assault by four men

Most popular.

Muslims from all over the world pray on Mount Arafat in Haj climax

After the deluge.

UK polls point to ‘electoral extinction’ for Prime Minister Sunak’s Conservatives

Punjab PDMA issues alert as rains likely during Eid days

Team ‘Melodi’ woos India as Meloni-Modi video goes viral

Cartoon: 15 June, 2024

Pakistan end T20 World Cup campaign with three-wicket win over Ireland

Six suspects remanded in police custody for allegedly mutilating camel in Sanghar

Cartoon: 17 June, 2024

Empowering Gilgit-Baltistan

Editorial: Increase in power prices clearly shows govt is least bothered by people’s plight

A year on, Greece shipwreck victims’ families grapple with debt, govt apathy

In pictures: Muslims around the world mark Eidul Azha

Editorial: Believers across the world must remember brutalised Palestinians in times of festivity

Leadership, crisis, opportunity

Seismic perils

Bureaucratic ills

No talks with TTP

Price bombs

Palestine’s plight, profiting off denied visas, fugue state, sindh budget, salary hikes, agri focus.

The Creation of new Provinces in Pakistan: Implications for an Integrated Country (CSS Essay)

Six-point formula of Sheikh Mujib ur Rehman was not secessionist in nature, instead he demanded more rights and self-rule under the ‘same center’.

In the mosaic of Pakistan’s ethno-linguistic diversity lies a tapestry of challenges and opportunities for effective administrative governance. The proposal to create new provinces from existing ones has long been on the table, fueled by the desire to manage complexity while preserving unity. However, the journey from linguistic aspirations to administrative realities is fraught with complexities, historical tensions, and the imperative of harmonizing diverse identities.

The demand for creating new provinces on linguistic, ethnic basis etc. has been on the table to consider since the Lahore Resolution of 1940. At that time, leaders of this future country agreed to create a federation with more provincial powers and ignoring all identities in the public sphere for a stronger federation at the center, as integration demands.

However, navigating complexities of contemporary Pakistan shows a complex situation regarding the division of existing provinces for an integrated society at national level. For instance, Punjab, the largest provinces has been proposed to be divided into three new provinces: the central Punjab, the Southern Punjab, and north or Potohar Punjab. However, dividing the largest province will instigate other provinces to face a complicated situation. The counter-demand to create a new province i.e., making Karachi a separate province is obvious and likely lead to ethnic clashes, more or less, violently.

Ethnic clashes among the Muhajirs, the Pashtuns, and the Sindhis are as old as Pakistan is. The Muhajirs that make nearly half of the population of Karachi as a linguistic group, demands for a new province, the Karachi. However, more population of Sindhis lives in Karachi than in the interior Sindh, and for them division of their province is not acceptable as they consider themselves as ‘legitimate sons of this land’ i.e. they claim the whole province of Sindh. Likewise, ethnic diversity is the spice of the life in Pakistan like any other country, however, often, it becomes more challenging to handle.

Evidences support that when an ethnic, sectarian, religious, or a linguistic minority have majority within a federating unit, the result is an intra-competition rather than competing with other federating units, and thus these minorities feel themselves more secure.

Considering Baluchistan province, divisions are quite complicated issues as demands by the locals are quite complex and, sometimes, less clear to understand if some proposals are made to divide it on ethnic lines. For example, the Baloch nationalists of Baluchistan province demand a separate province, however, they got confused about the inclusion of Quetta city, the capital city of that province as this city is multiethnic having the Hazaras, the Pashtuns, the Brahvis, the Punjabis and the ethnic Baloch themselves.

Certainly, the non-Baloch ethnicities might not necessarily support a separate province on that lines on which Baloch nationalists demand as these ethnicities might found Baloch’s as a majority. Whatever, the demands of these provinces are, being already small provinces as compared to Punjab; these people want to see more administration divisions of the largest federating unit, the Punjab province, before working on divisions of their provinces first.

Accordingly, the aforementioned perception demands serious attention as the division of the largest province into three new provinces might help mitigate the perceived dominance if not the actual one. According to many experts, the division of the largest province into that parts that would become equal or less in population size, if not the territorial size, of the other federating units can help in more administrative ease and stability. The Eastern Punjab, is another example within the same region, as the same province was divided into two units, the Punjab state and the Haryana state. Divisions of Pakistani Punjab are more or less on dialect basis like the Saraiki and the Potohari dialects.

Again, in any federation the creation of new provinces is one of the key steps to promote security and the level of acceptance among ethno-linguistic minorities. It helps avoid the situation from going towards the segregation rather than the integration along with a huge cost. Evidences support that when an ethnic, sectarian, religious, or a linguistic minority have majority within a federating unit, the result is an intra-competition rather than competing with other federating units, and thus these minorities feel themselves more secure. According to Katherine Adeney , the more number of carefully designed federating units are, the more chanced that the federation would be stronger. According to some statistics gathered from some recent decades, there are only twenty-five percent chances of a federation to survive, if it has only three or less federating units. In a nutshell, the more number of provinces in a more carefully organized way can make Pakistan more integrated.

One reason of creating new federating units is that minorities need security in cultural, economic, and social contexts and more but carefully designed federating units can provide more sense of security to them.

Does creation of some new provinces is the panacea for all the administrative problems of Pakistan? Certainly it cannot be. Statistics show that federations, around the world, have only thirteen percent chances of their failure as a nation-state, if these federations have thirteen or more federating units. One reason is that minorities need security in cultural, economic, and social contexts and more but carefully designed federating units can provide more sense of security to them. The careful administrative units provide them a sense of importance to them and enough space to thrive within their federating unit/units. Conclusively, the center become stronger as the creation of new provinces is just one of many ways to express the idea of their importance and inclusiveness in power-sharing corridors of a federation.

The creation of some new provinces is a positive gesture to answer minorities’ insecurities; however, it can be just a power show . For example, in Pakistan, two units were made on the basis of ‘one-unit’ formula. That created bipolarity between two units as both units were at ‘competing mode’ to each other. That, later on, proved to be a recipe for disaster and that administrative mismanagement included Pakistan among the list of Nigeria and former Yugoslavia as a failed state.

Why the administration did not solve administrative problems arising from that ‘one unit formula’? The demand for creating new provinces was not a big hurdle in the West Pakistan as it was in the East Pakistan. The creation of new federating units was resisted firmly in the Eastern unit since it was more ethnically homogenous and division on religious basis was not very practical idea either as it was manifested by the way that separate electorates were not welcomed as it was in the West Pakistan.

The creation of new federating units was resisted firmly in the Eastern unit since it was more ethnically homogenous and division on religious basis was not very practical idea either as it was manifested by the way that separate electorates were not welcomed as it was in the West Pakistan.

However, demands of post-1971 Pakistan are quite complicated in a different way; and their empirical solutions lie in removing their concerns by creating new provinces. In Sindh province demands increase in its share in the NFC (National Finance Commission) Awards on the basis of their revenue generation; Baluchistan province demands NFC on the basis of their backwardness and on land mass; and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) is concerned about the use of water in its agriculture sector. Does only the creation of new provinces enough to remove their, somehow, anti-Punjabi concerns?

Nevertheless, creation of new provinces within the Punjab province is necessary as the Southern Punjab is as underrepresented as the interior Sindh is within their respected provinces. The creation of this new province of the Southern Punjab would help divert more resources to get more revenue for its structural and functional development. It would help uplift people’s lives and would decrease their concerns as well.

Moreover, in past decades, for instance, during the military rule, the more focus was to empower local government which help strengthened the center at the expense of provinces. Meanwhile, benefits of creating of new provinces were given a little weightage. Conclusively, in past decades, center has focused less on the importance of creating more provinces in a careful way and Pakistan has missed multiple opportunities to give people better self-rule as it is a major element of integration and the multiculturalism to run such a country which is quite difficult to govern.

Six-point formula of Sheikh Mujib ur Rehman was not secessionist in nature, instead he demanded more rights and self-rule under the ‘same center’

Nonetheless, during the military rule of 1960s, military government gave less attention to create more federating countries and ignored demands of Sheikh Mujib in late 1960s. Sheikh Mujib demanded more power from the center at a time when the center was still very powerful. His six-point formula was not secessionist in nature, instead he demanded more rights and self-rule under the ‘same center’ and brutal repression was the answer as center expressed that his demands were unacceptable. The mishandling of the situation leas to the secessionist demands from the same center.

However, this failure of the federation should be seen as an opportunity to learn lessons to strengthen remaining part of the country. To an extent, the state woke up and worked on it and made the CCI (Council for Common Interests) to help mitigate concerns among provinces and the center. Still, there is a need to create changes for a healthy and integrated society that demands equality of every ethnic, linguistic, or religious group.

Firstly, several constitutional changes are recommended to fill loopholes of integration process as in Sindh province, creation of a new province is quite fragile matter as it demands mitigation of insecurities of Muhajirs, the Sindhis, the Pashtuns, and other ethnic groups. For example, article 251(3) of the constitution calls Urdu as the national language, but at the same time, it denies the same language as a provincial language . According to some, center should use its powers to put pressure on provinces to make it a provincial language as well along with taking some other steps. The center can make it possible as it is very powerful as provinces are dependent upon it for their finances, to a large extent.

Creation of new provinces is an expression of segmental autonomy or the self-rule that, in turn, is a constitutional element, like a road leading towards the stable federation.

Secondly, the NFC Award and the other ways of distribution of resources should be reconsidered, like the water distribution challenges. Baluchistan, Sindh, and KPK have anti-Punjab views, to an extent, and the need of the hour is to mitigate those real and perceived threats of the Punjab’s dominance. The NFC Award redistribution demands changes in its formula by managingconcerns of all smaller provinces.

Thirdly, creation of new provinces is an expression of segmental autonomy or the self-rule that, in turn, is a constitutional element, a road towards the stability of a federation. However, the other elements of that stability should be considered as well like proportionality, creation of a grand coalition involving elite of all ethnic, religious, sectarian, or linguistic groups etc.; and the mutual veto like the Bogra formula of 1950s. These elements are guarantee of security for any minority within any federation of the world as democracy is the rule of the majority. The strength of democracy is directly proportional to the elements of consociationalism and its effective implications.

Fourthly, the record of the local government in Pakistan, according to many, is patchy and unclear as well. It varies greatly and dependent upon the local mayor as well. However it is, still, it gives the center a direct control over the local bodies at the expense of the provincial governments. Here, the purpose of creation of new provinces faces a serious blow and integration of all identities faces the serious threat. Not unexpectedly, the military governments have the history of promoting it as Ayub Khan’s Basic Democracies system or Musharraf’s local government system. In a nutshell, democracy promotion is a way to avoid discontinuity of the significance of the integration and the new provinces to give more population a chance of better representation.

Lastly, government needs to promote multiculturalism in each federating unit to get fruits of creation of new provinces. It includes self-governing rights, polyethnic rights, or the rights to use local languages as official languages within their provincial territories or federating units along with their special representation rights.

Like in many federations throughout the world, creation of new provinces is more or less a complex issue as it always have a certain potential of claims and counter-claims regarding federalism. However, the actual purpose is to create a more stable federation along with consociational elements through several constitutional changes etc. and it is achievable.

Written by 11th Hour

Text to speech