Overpopulation Essay

500 words essay on overpopulation.

Overpopulation refers to an undesirable condition in which the number of existing human being exceeds the actual carrying capacity of the earth. It has many causes which range from a decline in the death rate to early marriages and more. The overpopulation essay will throw light on this issue.

overpopulation essay

Ill-Effects of Overpopulation

The ill-effects of overpopulation are quite severe. The first one is that natural resources deplete at a faster level. Our planet can produce only a limited amount of water and food . Thus, overpopulation causes environmental damage including deforestation, pollution, etc.

Similarly, there is the degradation of the environment which happens because of the overuse of resources like coal, oil, natural gases and more. As a result, the quality of air also gets affected in this manner.

In developing countries, overpopulation puts a strain on resources. Thus, it gives rise to conflicts and tension. It also causes more diseases that become harder to control. Next up, we have the issue of unemployment.

Moreover, it rises due to overpopulation. There is more number of people than job opportunities. As a result, unemployment gives rise to crimes like theft and more. We also have pandemics and epidemics which happen due to overpopulation.

It is because overcrowded and unhygienic living gives rise to infectious diseases . Another ill-effect is malnutrition and starvation. When there are scarce resources, these diseases will likely to be on the rise.

Most importantly, we have a shortage of water which makes it tougher for people to get access to clean water. Similarly, lower life expectancy also happens because of the boom in population, especially in less-developed nations.

We also witness faster climate change as nations continue to develop their industrial capacities. Thus, they emit industrial waste which gives rise to global temperatures . It will keep getting worse if things are not checked immediately.

Solutions of Overpopulation

There are many solutions which we may take up to prevent overpopulation. The best measure is family planning to keep the overpopulation check. In order to do that, one can ensure proper spacing between the births of the children.

Further, limiting the number of children as per income and resources must also be important. Similarly, it is essential to increase resources. The government must make the horrors of overpopulation reach the public through the use of media.

Moreover, better education can help implement social change which can curb overpopulation. Next up, knowledge of sex education must be made mandatory in schools so students learn young about everything they need to know.

Most importantly, it is essential to empower women so they can break out of poverty. This way, they can learn about reproductive health and make better decisions. Another solution can be government incentives.

Many governments of countries already have various policies which relate to tax exemptions for curbing overpopulation. For instance, some waive a certain part of income tax for married couples with one or two children.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas

Conclusion of Overpopulation Essay

All in all, overpopulation is no less than a curse that poses a permanent threat to the development of any country. It is essential to stop the flood of population. In order to do that, one must indulge in proper family planning and creating balance in society for a better world.

FAQ of Overpopulation Essay

Question 1: What is the main cause of overpopulation?

Answer 1: It is believed that the main cause of overpopulation is poverty. When there is a lack of education resource which coupled with high death rates, it results in impoverished areas witnessing large booms in population.

Question 2: How is overpopulation affecting the world?

Answer 2: Overpopulation is affecting the world as it is outpacing the ability of the planet earth to support it. It also has environmental and economic outcomes which range from the impacts of over-farming on global warming.

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Overpopulation - List of Essay Samples And Topic Ideas

Overpopulation occurs when the number of people living in a certain area exceeds the carrying capacity of the environment. Essays could delve into the causes and effects of overpopulation, its impact on resource scarcity and environmental degradation, or the policies and strategies for managing population growth. A substantial compilation of free essay instances related to Overpopulation you can find at PapersOwl Website. You can use our samples for inspiration to write your own essay, research paper, or just to explore a new topic for yourself.

Overpopulation – Global Issue

Overpopulation is becoming a global issue because over the years we have created more lives than resources. there will not be enough food for everyone.7 billion people on Earth now,and roughly one in eight of us don't have enough to eat(Dimick, 2014). The population will keep on getting bigger by the time and we will have to be prepared to struggle or see others struggle. People have different opinions about populations like some say the population is getting bigger by [
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Overpopulation in the World

Introduction The current world population stands 7.6 billion as per the United Nations Statistics, while the human population is projected to clock 10.5 billion in the year 2040 and 12 billion by the year 2050. The current human population growth rate per year 70 million. China has got the highest number of people per unit area, with the total population being 1.2 billion. The African continent has reached the highest population growth rate, which is 6 percent while the lowest [
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World Population Growth

The human population in the world has been growing a an extremely fast rate, but with a growing rate of population, comes with it a potentially fatal problem: overpopulation. Overpopulation is when the environment, or in this case Earth, can no longer support a species due to it not having a sufficient amount of resources to handle the population. While overpopulation is always ultimately going to be a problem, the real issue is when overpopulation is really starting. There are [
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How Big of a Problem is Overpopulation?

Overpopulation has become a much larger and larger problem as the years go on. There are many causes for overpopulation such as a decline in death, improved medical facilities and immigration. Some of these problems that come with overpopulation are increase of wars, increased global warming, the depletion of natural resources and much more. Some of the reasons why overpopulation has become a problem due to how the discrepancies in the birth rate to death rate. There are many more [
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Overpopulation Effects on Health and the Environment

Overpopulation effects all other aspects of our health and the environment in which we live. There has been more human-caused environmental disgrace in the last few thousands years than ever before, and with the population increasing five times its size in the last 300 years it is no wonder overpopulation has such a staggering impact in all areas of our health. Chronic disease is directly impacted by overpopulation. With the advancement we have in our medicine today compared with past [
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It has to a Boy: Another Dimension of over Population

First of all, we would like to thank our Allah Almighty who made us capable to put our efforts in the project. In performing our assignment, we had to take the help and guideline of some respected persons, who deserve our greatest gratitude and respect. The completion of this assignment gives us much Pleasure. We would like to show our gratitude to our course instructor Ma’am Sana Ashraf Chatha, for giving us a guideline for assignment throughout numerous consultations. We would also [
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Overpopulation in World

The world today has a total population of 7.6 billion people, inhabiting 195 countries and 7 different continents. As of 2018 there have been no issues regarding overpopulating the planet, but this subject worries many scientists and scholars. The rapid increase in population is the main concern, the projected population in 2050 is estimated to be 10 billion people (John C Caldwell). No one knows when overpopulation is going to happen, but the scary part is not knowing what happens [
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Overpopulation and its Effects on Human

Approximately 200 years ago, the total population of the Earth was less than one billion. According to the UN, as of 2017 the human population has reached a staggering 7.7 billion. (UN, 2015) Between 1900 and 2000, humanity saw a dramatic increase in its population from 1.5 to 6.1 billion. As the global population continues to balloon, one major issue that is looming overhead the human species is overpopulation. By 2050 the world population will reach to 10 billion people; [
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Overpopulation: not what you Think

Overpopulation, a word plastered on every headline and sowed into our very vocabulary. A word that brings fear, uncertainty and concerns to those who hear and/or read it, but why? How does this one word hold so much power? The very meaning of the word is how the number of existing humans exceeds the capacity of the Earth and in the recent centuries, that number has skyrocketed. Overpopulation is not something that humanity can sweep under the rug but it [
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Overpopulation: the Underrecognized Epidemic.

According to “How Many People Can Our World Support?” an article from World Population History, for the first time in human history, the number of people who go to bed hungry is more than one billion (“How Many”). Overpopulation is an underrecognized epidemic. An Epidemic that is leading to overwhelming amounts of preventable humanitarian and political issues and at the end of the day our earth cannot continue to support it. Our planet is now over seven billion people, and [
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Overpopulation and Climate Change

In the article Overpopulation and Climate Change Arthur H. Westing tells us that the in 1970, the greenhouse gas emission was beyond the sustainability level of the atmosphere and at that time the worlds population was 3.7 million and today it is 6.9 million. In the mean time emission from fossil fuel increased from 14 billion tons to 29 billion tons. Despite the growing awareness of climate change. In the article, Arthur H. Westing gives us the idea to divide [
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Overpopulation in US Prisons: a Result of Punishing Nonviolent Offenders

Releasing prisoners is never a good thing, right? Due to the over abundance of US incarcerations for several reasons, over 18 state prisons are overpopulated. Thus causing several major issues within the prison, the communities around and the overall justice system in the United States. Reforms should be brought to the government to solve the insane amount of incarcerations for non violent offenders which populate our prisons by 41%. It is an act that is necessary in order to solve [
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Overpopulation in Asia: Manila

Manila is the thriving capital of the Republic of the Philippines. It's also the densest city on Earth. However, just because Manila is extremely dense doesn't mean the whole country is overpopulated- but what effects are felt from the overpopulation of cities like Manila, and to the country as a whole? How did this city/country get so dense in the first place? And what can we do about it?One effect of the overpopulation in the Philippines is the enormous trade [
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The United States: Future Contributions to Overpopulation

The Earth currently holds 7.53 billion humans. The maximum supporting capacity of the Earth is estimated to be 9-10 billion. According to the United Nations Population Division, the human population will hit 9 billion by 2050, and 10 billion by 2100 (Wolchover, 2011). As one of the most powerful, knowledgeable, and resourceful countries in the world, the United States is on track to provide medical advancements that will contribute to overpopulation. Advancements such as the development of positive eugenics and [
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Overpopulation Hoax or True Concern

As a society, we live our lives day by day worrying about small things that might not matter focusing on wanting more and more as the days go by. Yet we never stop for a moment to think about the planet. The place that lets us create life and breathe in all the beautiful things that it provides for us. Letting us make a home surrounded by the people we love and things we desire. Now if we take a [
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Urbanization: the Transformation of Human Habitats

Urbanization isn't just about more folks moving to cities; it's a whole transformation that changes how we live, work, and connect. Let's break it down. Back in the day, urbanization kicked off big-time during the Industrial Revolution. People left farms for cities with promises of jobs and a better life. Factories were like magnets pulling folks in from the countryside. This trend hasn't slowed down—it's actually sped up, making cities the heart of where we live now. Money matters here. [
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Essay About Overpopulation We have heard it all that every mammal on Earth instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding around him but the same doesn’t happen with a human. All they know is how to keep multiplying from one area to another. I came across this interesting topic from BBC and as I read more the more, I realized that Human Overpopulation is one of the biggest global issues we are facing at present. It is not only an environmental issue but also associated with the social and economic sustainability aspect. With increased pressure on our planet, we don’t realize the problems we are facing related to the scarcity of natural resources, high-low consumption fluctuations, fertility rates, poverty, global climate change, women rights, gender equality, lack of education and changing technology policy. It is predicted that the planet will have a growth in population by the end of the century which is estimated to be 11 billion. So, the question arises with this much higher population growth will it be possible to live on the planet or some ramifications will be added to sustainability in the long-term? Social Problems Overcrowding of humans on the planet can have some serious social problem to demonstrate some they are: Fertility rates The fertility rate among many nations is decreasing the reason being women end up aborting the babies at a very young age and in a later part of their life it becomes difficult to become pregnant. Also, there is high access to contraception’s in many countries due to this babies don’t end up living. For instance, if we take China’s example the country has the largest population in the world but it is facing the fertility rate issue reason being out of 100 children 60% are boys and rest 40% are girls’ and the reason for this discrimination is they do the gender detect and once they know it’s a girl they end up aborting the baby girl. They are also moving away from one child policy and encouraging adults to have the second baby. Women Rights One of the main suffering areas is when women are not treated well in society as compared to a man. Even in many developed countries, women are paid less than men, they face violence, abuse, and racial discrimination. As there are no rights given to women there comes a fall in education and fertility rates. Poverty Overpopulation is directly linked to poverty which is another very big social issue. There is a lack of education, a decline in the standard of living and poor contraception methods. Also, it was highlighted in class that the global population may not peak this century’’ which is actually doubtful. Now the question arises how will the status of women affect the overpopulation concern? Positive social aspects Education Education plays a very important role in society dealing with the overpopulation problem. It is simple with education there is more knowledge of having fewer kids, less child mortality and understanding the latest technology. With education, the fertility rates will decline. Since with the proper education poverty can also be curbed. This addresses to our SDGs Goal 1 – “NO POVERTY’’ and Goal 4- “QUALITY EDUCATION’’ Gender Equality Giving women equal rights will not only raise the standard in society but also women can generate employment opportunities. Gender Equality correlates with self-protection from diseases, birth control, and better child care. This addresses to our SDGs Goal 5- ” GENDER EQUALITY” These SDG goals in social aspect is to remove poverty, provide quality education and Gender Equality by 2030. Environmental Problems The relationship between a growing population and environmental implications is interlinked and very complex. In the class also it was mentioned about the ‘’environment stress continues to intensify’’ which is disastrous for all of us sharing the same planet. Global warming As there are more people there is a high demand for fossil fuels, oil, mines, and coal when burned there is high emission of CO2 in the atmosphere to trap warm air like greenhouse gases. Mostly the consumption of fossil fuel in developed nations is much higher than in developing nations. Deforestation is another component in greenhouse gases. When the trees are cut or burned approximately 25% CO2 of total greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere making the air toxic to breathe. It was highlighted in class that ‘’ Three years of flat global emissions ended in 2017 as rates jumped by 2% and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by the largest amount since measurements began. This basically means the CO2 has increased in the atmosphere and this will impact climate changes which will have an adverse effect on our planet. This can be addressed with the SDGs Goal 13- “CLIMATE ACTION’’ and also it is necessary to take urgent actions to combat climate change. Farming impacts Agriculture is solely responsible for deforestation across the globe. Intensive farming to create new farmlands has a negative outcome. As intensive farming increases there are chemical fertilizers and pesticides used in crops and this can cause soil erosion. Water pollution Water pollution is not only a huge concern for humans but also for other natural habitat. Due to the high wattage of plastics, toxic chemicals that enter the oceans we are losing the most valuable resource of our planet. Even though we know that we don’t have sufficient water supply in many countries then also we don’t take action against any damage to water resources. This addresses to Goal 6- “CLEAN WATER AND SANITATION’’ and the target by 2030, is to have access to clean water is affordable across the globe. Now the question arises, is it possible to reverse climate change and prevent global warming? Let’s find out in our next learning. Environmental solution Sustainable Infrastructure In order to lessen the emission of CO2 from buildings, it is important to renovate the old buildings. This plan will not only reduce infrastructure cost but also a long-term economic analysis of infrastructure. Clearly, sustainable infrastructure improves socio-economic factors like environmental degradation, energy and renewable conservation and remedy to protect soil from soil erosion. Economic Implications When there is an increasing rise in the population then it is definitely not good for economic development. Reduction in the rate of capital A huge population reduces the per capita availability of capital in underdeveloped and developing countries. Due to the rapid growth of the population, there is a decline in the availability of capital per labor which means there is low productivity. In developing nations, the population is determined to increase the rate of capital. This means since most people are dependent on others all they do is only consume and do not produce anything. Whereas, in developed nations, overpopulation shortens the availability capita per person for which there is a decline in labor. Their income reduces which indirectly affects capital formation. Reduction in unemployment Unemployment results in too many people having very few jobs. To be more descriptive, overpopulation leads to unemployment. For instance, there are two workers one is highly qualified and the other is not so qualified but the not so qualified candidate does not mind working at less pay. This means there will be tougher competition for a job employer would hire a person with minimum wage demand. This addresses to SDGs Goal 8- GOOD JOBS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH’’ by 2020 it is a global strategy to provide jobs to youth and take immediate action against forced labor. To conclude undertaking from this article, I have learned that Overpopulation is one of the major problems in humanity. Overpopulation affects natural resources, poverty, pollution, global warming and the wellness of a person. More than 7.3 people are on this planet and it's not easy to solve social, economic and environmental problems. But to gain a sustainable future in which everyone has a good standard of living we all need to come together and take efforts to tackle such a global issue. Recommendations

The government must increase the age of marriage in some specific countries and should put a complete stop to child marriage. Population factor has a significant impact on the attainment of development objectives, international strategies should be taken into consideration as there is an interrelation between the resources, environment, population, and growth. Health improvement programs should be taken up by the government for the masses as health plays an important role in the growth of a country.

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A Brief on Overpopulation – Why it Matters and What You Can Do About It

Erin Brown | April 4, 2023 | Leave a Comment

good thesis for overpopulation

Photo by Candace McDaniel on StockSnap

As humanity has surpassed the 8 billion people milestone, it is more important now than ever to talk about population. What will we do if we continue to grow at exponential rates? What are ethical, viable strategies to decrease population?

“First off, let me get this straight, discussing addressing overpopulation does not mean discussing killing people. The goal is actually to prevent it.” – Dr. Jane O’Sullivan

Current world population in January 2023: 8 billion

The current rate of population growth is around 80 million people per year. There are over 8 billion people on the planet, the last billion added in less than the last 12 years. 

The Earth’s first billion people milestone took from the beginning of human history until the 1800s to be achieved. Then, due to the industrial revolution, humanity reached the second billion mark by 1930 (taking only 130 years), reached the third billion in 1960 (only took 30 years), then reached the fourth billion by 1974 (only took 14 years), and the fifth billion by 1987 (only took 13 years). We hit 6 billion in 1999 (which took 12 years) and hit 7 billion in 2011 (which took about 12 years). At the current growth rate, the world population will reach 9 billion by 2037 and 10 billion by 2057.

The growth rate is declining, but not at a fast enough rate to combat the exponential compound growth. The growth rate was 2% in the 1970s. Now it is 1.05%. Any growth rate above 1% means we are still adding more people to the planet every year. 

What is overpopulation? 

Overpopulation is a human population in numbers high enough to cause environmental deterioration, impaired quality of life, or population crash. 

Why is overpopulation an issue? 

Overrun natural resources can only lead to death by starvation, conflict, and disease, and the only viable alternative is voluntary restraint on human births.

What is carrying capacity?

Carrying capacity is defined as the maximum population of a species that an area will support without undergoing deterioration. 

Paul R. Ehrlich and other scientists estimate the world’s optimum population for carrying capacity (at a comfortable standard of living – editor’s note) to be less than two billion people – 6 billion fewer than on the planet today. “But the longer humanity pursues business as usual, the smaller the sustainable society is likely to prove to be. We’re continuously harvesting the low-hanging fruit, for example by driving fisheries stocks to extinction” – Paul Ehrlich says.

How do we revert population overshoot to a sustainable population level? 

Geologist Art Berman explains population overshoot this way: “Overshoot means that humans are using natural resources and polluting at rates beyond the planet’s capacity to recover. The main cause of overshoot is the extraordinary growth of the human population made possible by fossil energy. Concerns about overshoot and population raised more than 40 years ago were dismissed. Climate change has captured public awareness more recently although many doubt that it is an emergency. Overshoot is more difficult to dispute; it destroys rainforests, leads to the extinction of other species, the pollution of land, rivers, and seas, the acidification of the oceans, and the loss of fisheries and coral reefs. People understandably want to know the solutions. Overshoot is the problem we must address. Any plan that includes continued growth is doomed to fail.”

What can we do?  Jane O’Sullivan outlines the two options for addressing population overshoot – i ncrease the Earth’s carrying capacity or decrease population.

Increasing Earth’s carrying capacity

We are already doing this by (a) using fewer natural resources per person, or (b) increasing productivity by finding more ways to use resources. This only defers the problem and creates collateral damage. 

Decreasing population numbers

If we talk about this now, the hope is to increase our options for solutions. One of the biggest challenges to facing overpopulation head-on and discussing a decreasing population are the stigmas and myths associated with reducing human population numbers. An elaborate set of myths has emerged in opposition to reducing population levels. These myths may prevent even environmentalists from viewing overpopulation as an issue.  Jane O’Sullivan elucidates on the following six myths that make inaction a virtue.

Myth 1 – The human population is stabilizing, and birth rates are decreasing

Truth – Birth rates started declining in the 1970s-90s due to family planning, but not low enough. The number of mothers is still increasing faster than family planning is decreasing the birth rate .  We are still having more births per year than ever before. The total fertility rate has decreased, but as fertility decline has slowed to a trickle, the number of total births has continued to increase. 

Myth 2  – China is the only one with the problem and they used cruel methods (one-child policy)

Truth – Family planning programs have helped many countries successfully reduce births through voluntary means, including China, before the one-child policy.

Myth 3 – Poverty causes population growth, therefore development is the best contraceptive

I.e., family planning is unnecessary and inefficient as long as there is development.

Truth – If this was true, we would see the population decline as development increases. However, it is the decrease in fertility rates that drove economic development, not the other way around. This myth is therefore “correlation implying causation” in the wrong direction. The poorest countries could lower their population by family planning just as quickly as rich countries if they choose to prioritize it.

Countries of families with four or more children, on average, have the lowest level of development; in families with 3 children or fewer the level goes up by some degree, and with two or fewer children development soars. The current focus should be on expanding provisions for teachers, doctors, equality, etc. instead of just giving people what they need. 

Myth 4 – Educating girls is the key to ending population growth

Truth – Another indirect approach that excludes a discussion on the benefit of small families and ending population growth. Educating girls helps but not much unless it is also flanked by family planning efforts. Family planning has a stronger effect on women regulating their fertility, decreasing the fertility gap between the educated and uneducated, and with family planning, girls are more likely to stay in school.

Myth 5 – Population growth is good for the economy

Truth – This makes people poorer as shown under Myth #3. 

Myth 6 – Population growth in poor nations does not matter because of their “tiny carbon footprint”

Truth –  Population growth is a greater threat than climate change. The best way for anyone to decrease their carbon footprint is to have one less kid.

Therefore, family planning is the most economical way to a sustainable future.

What action can each of us take?

1. Discuss smaller family sizes with your partner, family, and friends – how do we aim for birth rates lower than two children per couple?

2. Share information about the environmental impacts of population growth with friends and family. Advocate for action to reduce and reverse population growth.

3. Reassess concerns about aging   – how can we shift away from worshipping eternal youth, to accepting and valuing the entire life cycle? 

4. Celebrate population decline – what are possible depopulation dividends? 

5. Support organizations and efforts that support family planning and women’s education.

Damien Carrington, an environmental editor at The Guardian, interviewed Prof. Paul Ehrlich about the solutions:

“The solutions are tough,” Ehrlich says. “To start, make modern contraception and backup abortion available to all and give women full equal rights, pay, and opportunities with men. Focus on overconsumption and equity issues. Specifically women’s rights and the explicit countering of racism.”

Ehrlich also says that an unprecedented redistribution of wealth is needed to end the over-consumption of resources, but “the rich who now run the global system – that hold the annual ‘world destroyer’ meetings in Davos – are unlikely to let it happen…Too many rich people in the world is a major threat to the human future, and cultural and genetic diversity are great human resources… It is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as the perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems. As I’ve said many times, ‘perpetual growth is the creed of the cancer cell’.”

If cultural and genetic diversity are great human resources, how can the rich and the poor come together across the world to solve this issue?

Anne and Paul Ehrlich expand on their “vision for a cure” :

“Rich white people love to hold meetings to discuss the ‘population problem’ which always ends up focusing on the very real demographic difficulties of those with darker skin tones, especially people who live in Africa and Latin America. But isn’t it really time for the poor people of the world, especially those not in need of tanning beds, to extend a helping hand to the major villains of the destruction of humanity’s life-support systems? Could they not hold an educational conference in Washington, D.C. to explain why civilization is going down the drain, to the per-capita most environmentally destructive giant nation on the planet? Leaders from the “South” could both organize the event and supply experts to educate the wealthy and middle class on their ethical responsibilities and ways to meet them. We envision learning sessions on topics such as:

  • Avoiding the second child.
  • The population problem beyond numbers: inequality and waste of talent. 
  • Are borders ethical?
  • Population shrinkage for politicians.
  • GDP shrinkage for economists.
  • Do Trump and his colleagues prove that the lighter your skin, the lighter your brain?
  • Citizens United: It’s time for euthanasia for corporations.
  • Redistribution and survival.
  • Disbanding “Murder Incorporated”: gun manufacturers and big pharma.
  • How to end plastic production.
  • The historical contributions of the global South to the food enjoyed by the North.
  • How biodiversity loss is accompanied by the loss of human cultural diversity.
  • We know our populations are growing too fast; how to help us help ourselves?
  • Why anti-abortion laws kill poor women.

You can doubtless think of others. The possibilities are endless”.

References: 

Berman, Art. The Climate-Change Trip to Abilene. July 13, 2022.  https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/the-climate-change-trip-to-abilene/

Carrington, Damien. Interview with Paul Ehrlich: Collapse of civilization is a near certainty within decades. July 9, 2020.  https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/22/collapse-civilisation-near-certain-decades-population-bomb-paul-ehrlich

Ehrlich, Anne H.; Ehrlich, Paul R. Overpopulation In America -And Its Cures. November 14, 2019.  https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/overpopulation-america-cures/

O’Sullivan, Jane. The tenth presentation at the Delivering the Human Future Conference. Titled: The Future of the Human Population. March 21, 2021.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shUNJPLpXpQ

Population Statistics.  https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

good thesis for overpopulation

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Overpopulation: Cause and Effect

A large group of people walking in a city

Conversations about overpopulation can quickly become controversial because they beg the question: Who exactly is the cause of the problem and what, if anything, should be done about it? Many population experts worry discussions around overpopulation will be abused by small-minded people to suggest some are the “right people” to be on the planet (like themselves), and some people are “the wrong people” (usually people in poverty, people of color, foreigners, and so on—you get the drift). But there are no “right” or “wrong” people on the planet, and discussing the problems of global overpopulation can never be an excuse, or in any way provide a platform, for having that type of conversation.

Each human being has a legitimate claim on a sufficient and fair amount of Earth’s resources. But with a population approaching 8 billion, even if everyone adopted a relatively low material standard of living like the one currently found in Papua New Guinea , it would still push Earth to its ecological breaking point. Unfortunately, the “average person” on Earth consumes at a rate over 50% above a sustainable level. Incredibly, the average person in the United States uses almost five times more than the sustainable yield of the planet.

When we use the term “overpopulation,” we specifically mean a situation in which the Earth cannot regenerate the resources used by the world’s population each year. Experts say this has been the case every year since 1970, with each successive year becoming more and more damaging. To help temper this wildly unsustainable situation, we need to understand what’s contributing to overpopulation and overconsumption and how these trends are affecting everything from climate change to sociopolitical unrest.

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The causes of overpopulation.

Today the Earth is home to over 8 billion people. By 2100 the population is on track to hit 10.8 billion , according to the United Nations — and that’s assuming steady fertility declines in many countries. Interestingly, if extra progress is made in women’s reproductive self-determination, and fertility falls more than the United Nations assumes is likely, the population in 2100 might be a relatively smaller 7.3 billion.

For now, the world’s population is still increasing in huge annual increments (about 80 million per year), and our supply of vital non-renewable resources are being exhausted. Many factors contribute to these unsustainable trends , including falling mortality rates, underutilized contraception, and a lack of education for girls.

Falling Mortality Rate

The primary (and perhaps most obvious) cause of population growth is an imbalance between births and deaths. The infant mortality rate has decreased globally, with 4.1 million infant deaths in 2017 compared to 8.8 million in 1990, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This is welcome public health news, of course.

At the same time, lifespans are increasing around the world. Those of us who are alive today will likely live much longer than most of our ancestors. Global average life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900 , thanks to advancements in medicine, technology, and general hygiene. Falling mortality rates are certainly nothing to complain about either, but widespread longevity does contribute to the mathematics of increasing population numbers.

Underutilized Contraception 

The global fertility rate has fallen steadily over the years, down from an average of 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.4 children per woman today, according to the UN Population Division . Along with that promising trend, contraceptive use has slowly but steadily increased globally, rising from 54% in 1990 to 57.4% in 2015. Yet, on the whole, contraceptive use is still underutilized. For example, according to the WHO, an estimated 214 million women in developing countries who want to avoid pregnancy are not using modern contraceptives.

These women aren’t using contraceptives for a variety of reasons, including social norms or religious beliefs that discourage birth control, misconceptions about adverse side effects, and a lack of agency for women to make decisions around sex and family planning. An estimated 44% of pregnancies were unintended worldwide between 2010-2014. Getting more women the access and agency to utilize family planning methods could go a long way in flattening the population curve.

Lack of Female Education    

Although female access to education has increased over the years, the gender gap remains. Roughly 130 million girls worldwide are out of school currently, and an estimated 15 million girls of primary school age will never   learn to read and write, compared with 10 million boys.

Increasing and encouraging education among women and girls can have a number of positive ripple effects, including delayed childbearing , healthier children, and an increase in workforce participation. Plenty of evidence suggests a negative correlation between female education and fertility rates.

If increased female education can delay or decrease fertility and provide girls with opportunities beyond an early marriage, it could also help to mitigate current population trends. 

The Effects of Overpopulation

It is only logical that an increase in the world’s population will cause additional strains on resources. More people means an increased demand for food, water, housing, energy, healthcare, transportation, and more. And all that consumption contributes to ecological degradation, increased conflicts, and a higher risk of large-scale disasters like pandemics.  

Ecological Degradation 

An increase in population will inevitably create pressures leading to more deforestation, decreased biodiversity, and spikes in pollution and emissions, which will exacerbate climate change . Ultimately, unless we take action to help minimize further population growth heading into the remainder of this century, many scientists believe the additional stress on the planet will lead to ecological disruption and collapse so severe it threatens the viability of life on Earth as we know it. 

Each spike in the global population has a measurable impact on the planet’s health. According to estimates in a study by Wynes and Nicholas (2017) , a family having one fewer child could reduce emissions by 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent per year in developed countries.

Increased Conflicts 

The scarcity brought about by environmental disruption and overpopulation has the potential to trigger an increase in violence and political unrest. We’re already seeing wars fought over water, land, and energy resources in the Middle East and other regions, and the turmoil is likely to increase as the global population grows even larger.

Higher Risk of Disasters and Pandemics 

Many of the recent novel pathogens that have devastated humans around the world, including COVID-19, Zika virus, Ebola, and West Nile virus, originated in animals or insects before passing to humans. Part of the reason the world is entering “ a period of increased outbreak activity ” is because humans are destroying wildlife habitats and coming into contact with wild animals on a more regular basis. Now that we’re in the midst of a pandemic, it has become clear how difficult it is to social distance in a world occupied by nearly 8 billion people.   

Discover the real causes and effects of overpopulation

What can be done about overpopulation.

When addressing overpopulation, it’s crucial to take an approach of providing empowerment while mobilizing against anybody advocating for the use of coercion or violence to solve our problems. The combined efforts of spreading knowledge about family planning, increasing agency among women , and debunking widely held myths about contraception will measurably change the trajectory of the world’s population.

As we carry out our work at Population Media Center (PMC), we see first-hand that spreading awareness about family planning methods and the ecological and economic benefits of having smaller families can change reproductive behavior. For example, listeners of our Burundian radio show Agashi (“Hey! Look Again!”) were 1.7 times more likely than non-listeners to confirm that they were willing to negotiate condom use with a sexual partner and 1.8 times more likely than non-listeners to say that they generally approve of family planning for limiting the number of children.

CELEBRATING EARTH DAY WITH CONVERSATIONS ON OVERPOPULATION

In the spirit of Earth Day, it’s crucial to approach discussions about overpopulation with sensitivity and inclusivity. Overpopulation conversations should focus on the collective responsibility to steward Earth’s resources sustainably, rather than assigning blame or dividing communities. By fostering understanding and promoting access to education and reproductive health services, we can work towards a more equitable and sustainable future for all.

At PMC we harness the power of storytelling to empower listeners to live healthier and more prosperous lives, which in turn contributes to stabilizing the global population so that people can live sustainably with the world’s renewable resources. Discover how PMC is taking action against overpopulation today!

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3 Overpopulation or Underpopulation?

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This chapter argues that often population ethics focuses on the costs of population growth while ignoring the instrumental and intrinsic benefits of having more people on Earth. It suggests that instrumental benefits such as the added value brought by information goods must be considered alongside the intrinsic value of the joys and loves of human lives. These benefits cannot be adequately weighed using total or average utility metrics. Instead, emerging theories must weigh the instrumental and intrinsic benefits of additional lives against the costs of capacity, which should be defined in terms of ‘soft limits’ and ‘hard limits.’ While the hard limits may be absolute, technological advances can be coupled with social and behavioural changes to shift the soft limits of population capacity. Given this malleability of population constraints, a re-evaluation of population ethics is required, with more attention paid to the benefits of larger populations.

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Essay on Overpopulation | Overpopulation Essay for Students and Children in English

February 14, 2024 by Prasanna

Essay on Overpopulation: One of the biggest threats to our planet is overpopulation and this has become a rising concern over the years. It is a global crisis that we are facing and it is important that people become more aware of it as soon as possible. The problem is that it is increasing at a very fast rate and this causes concern for everyone. Overpopulation is causing economic, social, and environmental issues. The problem just doesn’t lie in people having more children but with the low mortality rate which is because of the advancement in health care. In this essay, we will address all the issues that cause overpopulation. This article contains three sets of essays that is a 150-word essay, a 300-word essay, and a 500-word essay.

You can also find more  Essay Writing  articles on events, persons, sports, technology and many more.

Long and Short Essays on Overpopulation for Students and Kids in English

We provide children and students with essay samples on a long essay of 500 words and a short essay of 150 words on the topic “Overpopulation” for reference.

Short Essay on Overpopulation 150 Words in English

Short Essay on Overpopulation is usually given to classes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.

Overpopulation is growing at a very fast rate and the only way around this is to create awareness with people. The problem isn’t that we are running out of space but the standard of living is being affected, the resources we have on our planet are already so scarce and with this growth rate of a population, the only way to live a good life is by moving to a different planet.

The world population is set to double by the year 2050 which means we will run out of resources really fast and this means that our living expenses by then will be a lot and not affordable for a lot of people. 3500 humans are born almost every minute around the world and this could change so much in the 100 years. With overpopulation, our lives could be extremely different. Because of the growing wealth gap, this means poor people will have the worst standard of living in the next 100 years.

Long Essay on Overpopulation 500 Words in English

Long Essay on Overpopulation is usually given to classes 7, 8, 9, and 10.

Citizens in developing countries like India are already living in a very overpopulated country. Over 50 per cent of the population struggle to find means to survive, they struggle to get just the basic necessities that include shelter and food.  A lot of these third world countries barely get any funding on birth control. In a lot of families, the girls leave school at an early age and then try to make a family. A lot of the studies have proven the lower the education the higher the birth rate. We must also consider the supply of food, we won’t have much supply to meet the demand for the overpopulation and this is cause for concern. The farmers won’t get enough land to grow their crops and this creates more issues with the supply of food.

A lot of the third world countries face a lot of difficulty in growing and this mainly because of overpopulation. The problem is that even if these countries were to develop faster and have a better economy even that wouldn’t solve the problem as the damage is already done. So it is very important that we take action now and make sure we create awareness for the future. This is highly important as we can avoid many issues such as the depletion of resources and avoid scarcity of resources. The educated must seriously consider their choices because there are already so many children in the world and we must really take a step back to think.

Overpopulation is a rising concern especially in developing nations, we must try and look forward into the future and try to save the best for future generations. The issue now is that people don’t think about the future consequences. We must try to create a world that is more sustainable to live in and no harm comes to the quality of life.

Overpopulation is a huge problem in the current global scenario today. Overpopulations requires immediate solutions as it has reached alarming rates. This problem can be solved easily with some family planning but only the educated know about this and we need to inform the set of the population that isn’t aware of this problem. Family planning basically means trying to create a balance between the resources we have left and the population. The difference in this family planning balance is what gives us problems. When family planning we must consider the welfare of each individual and their overall happiness at the same time we must factor in humanitarian crisis and the country as a large.

Every human being has the right to get the most basic necessities to live and this includes employment, education, housing, healthcare,  clothing, food, and water. We must factor in all of this so that we can live a prosperous life. The problem with overpopulation is that the government and the higher authorities find it difficult to supply the required means to everyone. Countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan require the most amount of family planning as most of the population are struggling to make ends meet.

The world population is set to double by the year 2050 which means we will run out of resources really fast and this means that our living expenses by then will be a lot and not affordable for a lot of people. A lot of the third world countries face a lot of difficulty in growing and this mainly because of overpopulation. The problem is that even if these countries were to develop faster and have a better economy even that wouldn’t solve the problem as the damage is already done. So it is very important that we take action now and make sure we create awareness for the future. This is highly important as we can avoid many issues such as the depletion of resources and avoid scarcity of resources. The educated must seriously consider their choices because there are already so many children in the world and we must really take a step back to think.

One of the main reasons for overpopulation is the difference between the death rate and the overall birth rate in the population. The only way to find balance in this by equalizing the number of deaths per birth but this hasn’t happened in a long time because of improved healthcare people are living longer. Technological advancements have made it easier for people to have children if it wasn’t physically possible before and at the same time the death rate is so low because of the improved health facilities which help people live longer lives. While all this is good for mankind, it isn’t good for the environment and the future. We have to create policies that help people get a better understanding of the overpopulation crisis and create stricter laws on birth control. People should consider adoption when having children as there are so many unwanted children in the world and this is a more fulfilling process.

Overpopulation Essay Conclusion

So to conclude we must make weaker sections of society more aware of the problems that people face so that people can get a more structured understanding of the issues at hand. By creating awareness only can people get informed on the various issues at hand. In this essay, we saw many of the factors that create overpopulation and how people in third world countries are at stake. We must tell people to make more conscious efforts so that we can reap the benefits of later without future generations.

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The Problem of Overpopulation Essay

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Overpopulation has become one of the main challenging trends over the past centuries. Governments accept the fact that they are no longer capable of managing this problem. According to Rieder, the significant aftermath of this event is that “the Earth will, at some point, be unable to provide for our population, even without more growth” (2). Commonly proposed ways of solving the problem and treating its current consequences are widely discussed in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to examine the causes and effects of overpopulation, potential threats to society, and the ecosystem, as well as the ways to overcome the problem.

The United Nations (UN) forecasts that the world’s population is expected to increase by 2 billion in 30 years. Despite the aging population and downtrend of fertility in European countries, the amount of people is growing because of developing states. For example, the people in Africa is expected to double by 2050 (Uniyal et al. 21). Scientists provide numerous reasons for overpopulation, which include historical, sociological, psychological, and other factors (Uniyal et al. 21). It is commonly believed that overpopulation is caused by the growth of natality, the decrease of mortality, and migration flows. Other causes are attributed to cultural and religious beliefs as well as lack of education (Farraji et al. 16). Overall, there is a complex set of multiple interrelated reasons that should be examined altogether.

Overpopulation carries many environmental and social risks. Approximately 40% of the land is used for agriculture, and this figure has to grow to keep up with the growth of the population (Uniyal et al. 22). To cover up the scarcity of food, companies, and farmers are required to increase production. Therefore, a fragile balance of the global ecosystem is directly and indirectly threatened by harmful human activities. Uniyal et al. state that “deforestation, the effect on welfare, climate change, the decline in biocapacity, urban sprawl, food security, increase in energy demand and effect on the marine ecosystem are amongst most severe impacts of overpopulation” (20). Overpopulation affects the overall well-being of the society: thus, overcrowded urban cities demonstrate high rates of unemployment and unhappiness.

There are several ways of reducing the rate of overpopulation, and the main actors responsible for implementing proper policies are the national governments. Chen suggests that governments should provide citizens with affordable healthcare and social security (57). Actions such as the promotion of smaller families, gender equality, and education are considered to be effective by the UN (Farraji et al. 16). Additionally, young people should have easy access to birth control. Developing countries must create partnerships with major non-governmental organizations to fight the threat. Including these measures on the agenda may help to reduce poverty and depletion of resources.

Sustaining a population remains a great struggle, and it is going to impact the development of society. Overpopulation is caused by a set of various anthropological and natural reasons. It imposes a massive risk for life on Earth due to the exploitation of natural resources and makes the lifestyle of future generations more challenging. If the issue is not treated, the surplus population will highly likely face the scarcity of food, accommodation, and fresh air and water. However, the situation may change with the help of a global community and national governance. Many types of research and enthusiasts have proposed a system of actions, such as the adoption of “small family” policies and welfare.

Works Cited

Chen, Ying. Trade, Food Security, and Human Rights. Ashgate, 2014.

Farraji, Hossein, et al. “Overpopulation and Sustainable Waste Management.” International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management, vol. 5, no. 3, 2016, pp. 13-36.

Rieder, Travis N. Toward a Small Family Ethic: How Overpopulation and Climate Change are Affecting the Morality of Procreation. Springer Nature, 2016.

Uniyal, Shivani, et al. “Human Overpopulation: Impact on Environment.” Megacities and Rapid Urbanization: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice , edited by Information Resources Management Association, IGI Global, 2019, pp. 20-30.

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IvyPanda. (2019, December 3). The Problem of Overpopulation. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-problem-of-overpopulation/

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How Does Overpopulation Affect Sustainability? Challenges and Solutions

How Does Overpopulation Affect Sustainability? Challenges and Solutions

The world’s population has been growing exponentially over the past decades, from around 2 billion in 1900 to more than 8 billion now , and is expected to continue growing in the coming decades. While the increase in the number of people can be seen as a positive development, it also poses a significant challenge to sustainability. In this article, we try to answer the following questions: How does overpopulation affect sustainability and what challenges does this trend pose? What are the potential solutions to address these challenges and create a more sustainable future for all?

How Does Overpopulation Affect Sustainability?

By educating people about family planning, contraception, population growth factors and trends, and other relevant topics, we can empower individuals to make informed decisions about their reproductive health. The world’s increasing population is directly impacting sustainability, as more people require resources to survive. Below, we examine the various issues that arise from overpopulation and their effects on sustainability.

Increasing population levels lead to increased consumption of resources, resulting in greater greenhouse gas emissions. This contributes to climate change and can have a devastating effect on the environment.

  • Resource Depletion

More people require more food, water, energy, and other resources for their own survival. As these become increasingly scarce due to overpopulation, it becomes harder for us to sustain our current way of life.

  • Environmental Degradation

As more people consume resources, they create waste and pollution that can degrade the environment. This can lead to soil erosion, water pollution, and other forms of damage that can have severe consequences.

  • Deforestation

Overpopulation leads to an increased demand for housing, food, and resources, which can lead, among other things, to deforestation. We lose approximately 10 million hectares a year . This results in the loss of animal habitats and exacerbates climate change by reducing the amount of carbon dioxide that can be absorbed by plants. 

  • Social Unrest

Overpopulation can lead to overcrowding, poverty, food insecurity, and other social issues. This can create tension between communities and countries as resources become increasingly scarce.

  • Loss of Biodiversity

In 2020, WWF reported that over the last 50 years, we have seen an average 68% decrease in the populations of mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians. As habitats are destroyed to make way for human habitation, the diversity of wildlife decreases. This has a negative impact on the food chain and can threaten entire species with extinction. 

You might also like: Demographic Shifts and Carbon Emissions: Can Population Decline Solve Global Environmental Challenges?

Challenges Posed by Overpopulation on Sustainability

The challenges posed by overpopulation on sustainability are complex and require urgent attention. Here, we outline some of the most pressing issues.

  • Food Security

As the population continues to grow, there will be an increased demand for food. This can lead to shortages and higher prices in some countries, making it difficult for people to access nutritious meals.

Overpopulation can lead to overcrowding and a lack of resources, which makes it difficult for people to find adequate housing. This problem is particularly acute in developing countries where there is a lack of infrastructure and resources.

Overpopulation can also create difficulties for students as there is limited access to schools and teachers. This hampers their ability to gain an education and limits their opportunities in the future.

According to World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO), almost half of the world’s population lacks access to essential care services. As more people require medical care, existing healthcare systems become overburdened and unable to provide adequate services. This can lead to a lack of access to essential medical care in some areas. 

With more people comes more waste and pollution, which can lead to water contamination, air pollution, and other environmental issues. This has a detrimental effect on the planet’s ecosystems as well as human health. WHO estimates that pollution can be associated with 7 million premature deaths each year.

You might also like: Understanding Japan’s Demographic ‘Crisis’: An Alternative Perspective on Population Decline

Solutions to Overpopulation and Sustainability Challenges

There are a number of solutions that can help to address the challenges posed by overpopulation on sustainability. These include:

  • Improved Education

Education is one of the most important tools for addressing overpopulation and its related challenges. 

By educating people about family planning, contraception, population growth trends, and other relevant topics, we can empower individuals to make informed decisions about their reproductive health. 

Moreover, education around sustainable development initiatives, such as conservation and renewable energy sources, can help create more environmentally conscious communities. This can lead to more efficient use of resources and less pollution. 

Lastly, providing educational opportunities for disadvantaged people, such as those living in rural areas or refugee camps, can help to reduce poverty levels by creating job opportunities and improving access to healthcare.

  • Family Planning

Family planning is a critical tool for addressing overpopulation. 

Through programmes promoting access to contraception, reproductive health education, gender equality and women’s rights, we can empower individuals to make informed decisions about their lives and fertility. 

As of 2023, the United Nations Population Fund reports that 257 million women are using ineffective or even potentially dangerous family planning methods, which impacts them, their families, and whole communities.

Family planning initiatives can lead to lower poverty levels as they help couples plan for the size of their families and ensure that resources are more evenly distributed among children. This can provide increased economic stability for entire communities.

  • Renewable Energy

A recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that the power sector is set for a “tipping point” on its carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, as renewables and other cleaner sources, including nuclear energy, are on track to cover most of the new global electricity demand .

That’s great news, considered that renewable energy sources, such as solar , wind , and hydropower  can help minimise our reliance on fossil fuels and create a more sustainable future.  By investing in renewable energy initiatives, we can reduce our carbon footprint and protect the environment from further degradation. This way, the air quality and water supply can be improved, creating a healthier environment for everyone. 

In addition, renewable energy can create job opportunities and improve access to electricity in some of the most remote areas in the world. This can have a positive effect on people’s overall quality of life.

  • Sustainable Agriculture

Sustainable agriculture is a critical component of creating an environmentally conscious society. 

By encouraging the use of organic farming practices and minimising chemical inputs, we can reduce soil erosion, water contamination, and other forms of environmental degradation. This will help to maintain the health of our ecosystems while also increasing crop yields in some areas. 

Moreover, sustainable agriculture initiatives can create job opportunities for rural communities and provide access to nutritious food for everyone. This way, we can ensure that resources are shared more equitably among people around the world.

Read more here: How Climate Smart Agriculture Can Help Us Tackle Global Food Insecurity

  • Conservation Efforts

Conservation efforts are essential for preserving the environment and protecting biodiversity. 

Through initiatives such as creating protected areas, reforestation projects, and responsible hunting, we can create a safe space for wildlife to thrive while also reducing the pressure on ecosystems. This will help to maintain the balance of nature and ensure that there is enough food available for all species in an area. 

In addition, conservation efforts can lead to increased tourism revenue which can be used to fund sustainable development initiatives in local communities.

  • Green Technology

Green technology is a key part of creating a more sustainable society. It refers to the use of renewable energy sources, efficient production processes, and other initiatives that reduce our reliance on natural resources. 

By investing in green technology, we can create jobs while also reducing pollution levels. This will help to improve air quality and water supply while also providing economic stability for communities around the world. 

In addition, green technology can lead to increased efficiency in manufacturing processes, which could result in reduced costs for consumers and lower prices for goods.

  • Awareness and Advocacy

Finally, it is crucial to raise awareness and advocate for solutions to the challenges posed by overpopulation on sustainability. 

This can be achieved through campaigns aimed at educating people about the impacts of population growth, as well as lobbying governments and decision-makers to invest in sustainable initiatives. It is also important to maintain a dialogue with the public and engage them in conversations about how we can work together to create a better world. 

By creating an informed and engaged citizenry, we can create solutions to overpopulation and its related challenges.

The challenges posed by overpopulation on sustainability are daunting, but they are not insurmountable. By taking the right steps, we can ensure that our planet remains a safe and healthy home for generations to come. This can help to make essential products more accessible for everyone.

The impact of overpopulation on sustainability is a critical issue that must be addressed.  Unsustainable consumption and environmental degradation due to population growth can have disastrous consequences for the planet and all its inhabitants. 

Fortunately, there are solutions that we can pursue to address these challenges, from improved education to sustainable agriculture practices. 

With concerted effort, it is possible for us to create a more sustainable future – one in which our planet’s resources are managed responsibly and used in ways that benefit everyone. As the world continues to grow more crowded, it is essential that we take decisive action now so that future generations will not suffer from the impacts of overpopulation on sustainability. 

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Overpopulation Argumentative Essays Samples For Students

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Whether Or Not Hunting Should Be Used To Reduce Overpopulation Of Certain Animal Argumentative Essay

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The essay is an attempt to contradict the Ehrlichs' opinion that the number of people on Earth is the worst destructive power that the planet faces. The essay advocates that there are more humane ways of saving the planet that shortening the number of people living on it. People are not only the destructors, but also the builders of everything on Earth. The essay suggests Other scholars' views on the problem, who view people as the power of sustainable development on the planet.

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Billerud: Upside Has A Long Time In Coming Despite Good Q2 2024

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  • Analysts have a negative miss ratio on Billerud, making it difficult to estimate the upside potential, leading to a "HOLD" recommendation.
  • Billerud AB was downgraded due to sales volumes, margin situation, and lack of input control, resulting in a 9% decline since April.
  • The company is focusing on WC management and cash conversion, with improvements in 2Q24, but challenges remain.
  • Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at iREITÂź+HOYA Capital. Learn More »

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Dear readers/followers,

In my last article on the timber/packaging company Billerud AB ( OTCPK:BLRDY ) ( OTC:BLRDF ), I downgraded the company due to what I viewed as problematic. My downgrade turned out to be the right move for this particular company because Billerud actually declined almost 9% exclusive of dividends since then. That article was from the beginning of April and you can find it here.

My view at the time was also that the company really lacked any sort of current upside because of the company's sales volumes, margin situation, and the company's fundamentals relative to the valuation asked by the market at the time. It's also worth noting that Billerud, unlike many of the other companies we're looking at in this sector, lacks input control because it sold off almost all of its timber and forest assets. That means it's directly correlated to commodity pricing, which is not the case with other companies in this sector.

I've previously invested non-trivial amounts in Billerud, and would be willing to do so again going forward - but only at the right valuation, and if I see a "move" in the right direction on the part of this company.

In this article, we'll dissect 2Q24, and see if it can be argued that there is an upside to be had here.

Billerud - Not much to like compared to many other companies here

Whenever I look at a company, I also look at what else is available on the market. This is usually where most companies fail as investments. There's no shortage of nice companies at a "fair" price. But that's not what I am interested in. I want a "good" company at a "good" or "great" price. The importance of valuation is what I typically harp on about quite a bit.

The reason I'm careful about this entire sector is the relatively difficult year the companies within it had in 2023. There are undoubtedly some more pricing pressures in coming here, even if the energy prices are not as elevated as they were a year ago, or thereabouts.

Like many companies in its situation, Billerud's focus is currently on WC management and cash conversion to try and regain momentum. As of the current period, this has unfortunately mostly failed. Some delivery of efficiencies has been done, but there are things left to do.

It would be wrong of me to move on, however, without mentioning the dividend cut that the company did at the time around my last article. A more than 50% cut in an interest rate environment such as this should never pass by without attention - and it goes to show you that valuation is, in fact, a lot more important than dividends. Dividends are only interesting in the cases where the other factors and parts of the company are "working", and it's doubtful if this can be said even now.

For 2Q24 we're having the following.

The company actually did fairly well here. Underlying EBITDA saw improvements, but this was from a very poor period, and from 1Q24 is sequentially down 14%. The company's net sales are increasing both QoQ and YoY, at mid to high single-digit rates - but EPS is down 80% sequentially. Up on the top of the list, we have improved market conditions, which is a requirement for a company in this situation.

Billerud IR

Billerud IR

And as you can see, improvements are expected going into the remainder of 2024 as well. Mixes are improving in terms of sales, and profitability is slightly recovering. Efficiency improvements are mostly on track, but pricing is currently showing negative trends (as well as company maintenance, which is always a thing for a business such as this).

Billerud IR

On the positive side, we have strong order books and good net sales performance with growth in most categories that the company is currently in. The best performer was liquid packaging board, followed by Kraft/specialty paper, while the worst was pulp, where the performance was down 3%. The company also continues to showcase its dependence on external parties for its feedstock, given that the company's input costs were higher yet again, and are set to increase more going into 3Q. In short, the "pain" is not yet over here - although the main thing that seems to go up in price here is fiber (as expected, the company owns nothing), while lower energy and lower chemical costs should result in at least some stabilization here.

The improved company cash flow does mean lower leverage and a better overall financial picture, and on the positive side, Billerud is now in low debt at less than 1.7x , which is well below its stated target. Actual net debt is down to below 7B SEK, which comes to below $800M.

The efficiency program also deserves at least a mention here because the company is moving forward with it fairly successfully.

Billerud IR

And it's transformation of the US-based assets towards packaging materials, including the Escabana mill towards carton, is likely to deliver both growth and an improved mix for the company on a forward basis. The company is doing this transformation at what it calls a "moderate investment level", however, and states that more information will be given at 4Q during the CMD.

Billerud considers priorities intact, with positioning for a long-term upside and overall appeal. I do not consider it to be quite as simple as this, especially since Billerud clearly states that it's moving forward with an "updated strategy" for the European region while delivering more EBITDA uplifts from the synergy and improvement program.

Not as simple as things are going good now. The company's own outlook calls for 3Q improvements based on the positive mix to offset higher input costs. I do not consider it fundamentally attractive from an investment position to depend on external influences, such as an improved mix, to handle its input costs problems - but this is what Billerud seems to be doing.

I forecast continued challenges for the company, including a much more moderated recovery from the 2023 lows. Current analyst estimates come to around 40% EPS growth annualized from the 2023 level until 2026, but that is from an 88.15% EPS drop. As things stand, the expected EPS in 2025-2026 comes to 10 SEK, which at this point at a 15x P/E would imply around a 150 SEK share price. The problem is that I do not view this as likely given the company's challenges and fundamentals. I believe commodities will continue to be volatile and "eat into" the company's bottom line more than both other analysts and the market seem to expect here.

I back this up with the fact that analysts who are forecasting what I mentioned above have a 66%+ negative miss ratio on this company, even with a 10% margin of error. In short, their forecasts should be taken with a fair bit of "salt". (Source: Paywalled FAST Graphs link )

But that doesn't mean that the company is entirely unattractive at the right price. We just need that "right price".

Billerud - The upside is there, but difficult to estimate.

Billerud is one of those companies where it's easy to expect a lot, but historically equally easy to be "burned". I have been burned before - and I have done well. I have mostly done well when I used conservatively priced options to "play" with the company, and generate alpha from cash-secured puts. I never really owned significant stakes in the company for some time now.

In my last article, I said the following:

So, in a word, if I were to summarize the way that I view my thesis for the business is that "There might be potential, but it's too unclear". ( Source )

This is still mostly what I see here. I see upward potential for this company, and in fact, the upward potential is undeniable. But at what price, and at what risk should you consider the company?

My previous PT was heavily discounted to 88 SEK. I'm willing to raise the PT to 95 SEK here to account for some of the improvements and the somewhat clearer upside that I believe to be present here, but I'm still unwilling to forecast even close to as high as some of the forecasts are trying to do here. I say that the company probably reaches 6-7 SEK earnings in the next few years, which could justify levels of 120-130, but in order to get an upside from that, we'd need to invest at levels under 100 SEK for the native.

The relevant ADR here is BLRDY, and this is a 2x ADR, meaning 1 ADR share equals 2 native shares. Your approach is therefore to multiply native by 2, and I say that the ADR's share price, translated for SEK here, is around $16.5 per share, compared to the current price of $19.6 for the ADR ticker.

In the end, I don't think the company is an attractive enough "BUY" here to justify an investment - and this has to do with the risks to the business at this price, which are as follows.

Billerud Risks - The upside is too dependent on input pricing

Input pricing for this company is definitely one of the main risks to this investment. It means that Billerud as a business is probably the most dependent on external factors. Even if management does a credible or even good job, it doesn't necessarily translate to that much of an upside because they don't control as much of the input pricing and variables as the management of peer companies do.

For that reason, I put a heavy discount on Billerud and would consider the risk/reward unfavorable at anything except a cheap price. The company could be an attractive "buy" at the right consideration, but the fact is that I don't see this possible today.

For that reason, I say the risk is too high, I want more data from the CMD, and I see better alternatives here.

My thesis is as follows.

  • Billerud is a very solid packaging/forestry company with assets and sales in both NA and Europe. It's top-tier in terms of margins and profitability, and after its recent M&A, I believe it's in a position than ever before. At the right price, the combination of packaging resilience and dividend payouts makes Billerud an absolute "must-have" to me.
  • My current PT comes to a conservative 10-12x P/E but with a heavy discount at 88 SEK share price. I set this discount to the variability and dependence on input and commodity pricing here, which results in some of the more unfavorable trends compared to this entire industry.
  • That makes the company a "Hold". I sold most of my shares here, and I would not buy more of the company unless I was getting the shares at a significant discount.

Remember, I'm all about : 1. Buying undervalued - even if that undervaluation is slight, and not mind-numbingly massive - companies at a discount, allowing them to normalize over time and harvesting capital gains and dividends in the meantime.

2. If the company goes well beyond normalization and goes into overvaluation, I harvest gains and rotate my position into other undervalued stocks, repeating #1.

3. If the company doesn't go into overvaluation, but hovers within a fair value, or goes back down to undervaluation, I buy more as time allows.

4. I reinvest proceeds from dividends, savings from work, or other cash inflows as specified in #1.

Here are my criteria and how the company fulfills them ( italicized ).

  • This company is overall qualitative.
  • This company is fundamentally safe/conservative & well-run.
  • This company pays a well-covered dividend.
  • This company is currently cheap.
  • This company has a realistic upside based on earnings growth or multiple expansion/reversion.

The company no longer fulfills any, except the 3 fundamentals of the criteria I set for an investment. Because it lacks the valuation-related upsides, I consider the company to be a "Hold" here, and would not buy it, justifying my stance change and the continued bearish tone in this article.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

The company discussed in this article is only one potential investment in the sector. Members of iREIT on Alpha get access to investment ideas with upsides that I view as significantly higher/better than this one. Consider subscribing and learning more here.

This article was written by

Wolf Report profile picture

Wolf Report is a senior analyst and private portfolio manager with over 10 years of generating value ideas in European and North American markets.

He is a contributing author and analyst for the investing group iREITÂź+HOYA Capital and Wide Moat Research LLC where in addition to the U.S. market, he covers the markets of Scandinavia, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eastern Europe in search of reasonably valued stock ideas.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. While this article may sound like financial advice, please observe that the author is not a CFA or in any way licensed to give financial advice. It may be structured as such, but it is not financial advice. Investors are required and expected to do their own due diligence and research prior to any investment. Short-term trading, options trading/investment and futures trading are potentially extremely risky investment styles. They generally are not appropriate for someone with limited capital, limited investment experience, or a lack of understanding of the necessary risk tolerance involved. I own the European/Scandinavian tickers (not the ADRs) of all European/Scandinavian companies listed in my articles. I own the Canadian tickers of all Canadian stocks I write about. Please note that investing in European/Non-US stocks comes with withholding tax risks specific to the company's domicile as well as your personal situation. Investors should always consult a tax professional as to the overall impact of dividend withholding taxes and ways to mitigate these.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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