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Best Guesses: Understanding The Hypothesis in Machine Learning

• February 22, 2024
• General , Supervised Learning , Unsupervised Learning

Machine learning is a vast and complex field that has inherited many terms from other places all over the mathematical domain.

It can sometimes be challenging to get your head around all the different terminologies, never mind trying to understand how everything comes together.

In this blog post, we will focus on one particular concept: the hypothesis.

While you may think this is simple, there is a little caveat regarding machine learning.

The statistics side and the learning side.

Don’t worry; we’ll do a full breakdown below.

You’ll learn the following:

What Is a Hypothesis in Machine Learning?

• Is This any different than the hypothesis in statistics?
• What is the difference between the alternative hypothesis and the null?
• Why do we restrict hypothesis space in artificial intelligence?
• Example code performing hypothesis testing in machine learning

In machine learning, the term ‘hypothesis’ can refer to two things.

First, it can refer to the hypothesis space, the set of all possible training examples that could be used to predict or answer a new instance.

Second, it can refer to the traditional null and alternative hypotheses from statistics.

Since machine learning works so closely with statistics, 90% of the time, when someone is referencing the hypothesis, they’re referencing hypothesis tests from statistics.

Is This Any Different Than The Hypothesis In Statistics?

In statistics, the hypothesis is an assumption made about a population parameter.

The statistician’s goal is to prove it true or disprove it.

This will take the form of two different hypotheses, one called the null, and one called the alternative.

Usually, you’ll establish your null hypothesis as an assumption that it equals some value.

For example, in Welch’s T-Test Of Unequal Variance, our null hypothesis is that the two means we are testing (population parameter) are equal.

This means our null hypothesis is that the two population means are the same.

We run our statistical tests, and if our p-value is significant (very low), we reject the null hypothesis.

This would mean that their population means are unequal for the two samples you are testing.

Usually, statisticians will use the significance level of .05 (a 5% risk of being wrong) when deciding what to use as the p-value cut-off.

What Is The Difference Between The Alternative Hypothesis And The Null?

The null hypothesis is our default assumption, which we are trying to prove correct.

The alternate hypothesis is usually the opposite of our null and is much broader in scope.

For most statistical tests, the null and alternative hypotheses are already defined.

You are then just trying to find “significant” evidence we can use to reject our null hypothesis.

These two hypotheses are easy to spot by their specific notation. The null hypothesis is usually denoted by H₀, while H₁ denotes the alternative hypothesis.

Example Code Performing Hypothesis Testing In Machine Learning

Since there are many different hypothesis tests in machine learning and data science, we will focus on one of my favorites.

This test is Welch’s T-Test Of Unequal Variance, where we are trying to determine if the population means of these two samples are different.

There are a couple of assumptions for this test, but we will ignore those for now and show the code.

You can read more about this here in our other post, Welch’s T-Test of Unequal Variance .

We see that our p-value is very low, and we reject the null hypothesis.

What Is The Difference Between The Biased And Unbiased Hypothesis Spaces?

The difference between the Biased and Unbiased hypothesis space is the number of possible training examples your algorithm has to predict.

The unbiased space has all of them, and the biased space only has the training examples you’ve supplied.

Since neither of these is optimal (one is too small, one is much too big), your algorithm creates generalized rules (inductive learning) to be able to handle examples it hasn’t seen before.

Here’s an example of each:

Example of The Biased Hypothesis Space In Machine Learning

The Biased Hypothesis space in machine learning is a biased subspace where your algorithm does not consider all training examples to make predictions.

This is easiest to see with an example.

Let’s say you have the following data:

Happy  and  Sunny  and  Stomach Full  = True

Whenever your algorithm sees those three together in the biased hypothesis space, it’ll automatically default to true.

This means when your algorithm sees:

Sad  and  Sunny  And  Stomach Full  = False

It’ll automatically default to False since it didn’t appear in our subspace.

This is a greedy approach, but it has some practical applications.

Example of the Unbiased Hypothesis Space In Machine Learning

The unbiased hypothesis space is a space where all combinations are stored.

We can use re-use our example above:

This would start to breakdown as

Happy  = True

Happy  and  Sunny  = True

Happy  and  Stomach Full  = True

Let’s say you have four options for each of the three choices.

This would mean our subspace would need 2^12 instances (4096) just for our little three-word problem.

This is practically impossible; the space would become huge.

So while it would be highly accurate, this has no scalability.

More reading on this idea can be found in our post, Inductive Bias In Machine Learning .

Why Do We Restrict Hypothesis Space In Artificial Intelligence?

We have to restrict the hypothesis space in machine learning. Without any restrictions, our domain becomes much too large, and we lose any form of scalability.

This is why our algorithm creates rules to handle examples that are seen in production. 

This gives our algorithms a generalized approach that will be able to handle all new examples that are in the same format.

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Hypothesis Testing – A Deep Dive into Hypothesis Testing, The Backbone of Statistical Inference

• September 21, 2023

Explore the intricacies of hypothesis testing, a cornerstone of statistical analysis. Dive into methods, interpretations, and applications for making data-driven decisions.

In this Blog post we will learn:

• What is Hypothesis Testing?
• Steps in Hypothesis Testing 2.1. Set up Hypotheses: Null and Alternative 2.2. Choose a Significance Level (α) 2.3. Calculate a test statistic and P-Value 2.4. Make a Decision
• Example : Testing a new drug.
• Example in python

1. What is Hypothesis Testing?

In simple terms, hypothesis testing is a method used to make decisions or inferences about population parameters based on sample data. Imagine being handed a dice and asked if it’s biased. By rolling it a few times and analyzing the outcomes, you’d be engaging in the essence of hypothesis testing.

Think of hypothesis testing as the scientific method of the statistics world. Suppose you hear claims like “This new drug works wonders!” or “Our new website design boosts sales.” How do you know if these statements hold water? Enter hypothesis testing.

2. Steps in Hypothesis Testing

• Set up Hypotheses : Begin with a null hypothesis (H0) and an alternative hypothesis (Ha).
• Choose a Significance Level (α) : Typically 0.05, this is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it’s actually true. Think of it as the chance of accusing an innocent person.
• Calculate Test statistic and P-Value : Gather evidence (data) and calculate a test statistic.
• p-value : This is the probability of observing the data, given that the null hypothesis is true. A small p-value (typically ≤ 0.05) suggests the data is inconsistent with the null hypothesis.
• Decision Rule : If the p-value is less than or equal to α, you reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative.

2.1. Set up Hypotheses: Null and Alternative

Before diving into testing, we must formulate hypotheses. The null hypothesis (H0) represents the default assumption, while the alternative hypothesis (H1) challenges it.

For instance, in drug testing, H0 : “The new drug is no better than the existing one,” H1 : “The new drug is superior .”

2.2. Choose a Significance Level (α)

When You collect and analyze data to test H0 and H1 hypotheses. Based on your analysis, you decide whether to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative, or fail to reject / Accept the null hypothesis.

The significance level, often denoted by $α$, represents the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true.

In other words, it’s the risk you’re willing to take of making a Type I error (false positive).

Type I Error (False Positive) :

• Symbolized by the Greek letter alpha (α).
• Occurs when you incorrectly reject a true null hypothesis . In other words, you conclude that there is an effect or difference when, in reality, there isn’t.
• The probability of making a Type I error is denoted by the significance level of a test. Commonly, tests are conducted at the 0.05 significance level , which means there’s a 5% chance of making a Type I error .
• Commonly used significance levels are 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10, but the choice depends on the context of the study and the level of risk one is willing to accept.

Example : If a drug is not effective (truth), but a clinical trial incorrectly concludes that it is effective (based on the sample data), then a Type I error has occurred.

Type II Error (False Negative) :

• Symbolized by the Greek letter beta (β).
• Occurs when you accept a false null hypothesis . This means you conclude there is no effect or difference when, in reality, there is.
• The probability of making a Type II error is denoted by β. The power of a test (1 – β) represents the probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis.

Example : If a drug is effective (truth), but a clinical trial incorrectly concludes that it is not effective (based on the sample data), then a Type II error has occurred.

Balancing the Errors :

In practice, there’s a trade-off between Type I and Type II errors. Reducing the risk of one typically increases the risk of the other. For example, if you want to decrease the probability of a Type I error (by setting a lower significance level), you might increase the probability of a Type II error unless you compensate by collecting more data or making other adjustments.

It’s essential to understand the consequences of both types of errors in any given context. In some situations, a Type I error might be more severe, while in others, a Type II error might be of greater concern. This understanding guides researchers in designing their experiments and choosing appropriate significance levels.

2.3. Calculate a test statistic and P-Value

Test statistic : A test statistic is a single number that helps us understand how far our sample data is from what we’d expect under a null hypothesis (a basic assumption we’re trying to test against). Generally, the larger the test statistic, the more evidence we have against our null hypothesis. It helps us decide whether the differences we observe in our data are due to random chance or if there’s an actual effect.

P-value : The P-value tells us how likely we would get our observed results (or something more extreme) if the null hypothesis were true. It’s a value between 0 and 1. – A smaller P-value (typically below 0.05) means that the observation is rare under the null hypothesis, so we might reject the null hypothesis. – A larger P-value suggests that what we observed could easily happen by random chance, so we might not reject the null hypothesis.

2.4. Make a Decision

Relationship between $α$ and P-Value

When conducting a hypothesis test:

We then calculate the p-value from our sample data and the test statistic.

Finally, we compare the p-value to our chosen $α$:

• If $p−value≤α$: We reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. The result is said to be statistically significant.
• If $p−value>α$: We fail to reject the null hypothesis. There isn’t enough statistical evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.

3. Example : Testing a new drug.

Imagine we are investigating whether a new drug is effective at treating headaches faster than drug B.

Setting Up the Experiment : You gather 100 people who suffer from headaches. Half of them (50 people) are given the new drug (let’s call this the ‘Drug Group’), and the other half are given a sugar pill, which doesn’t contain any medication.

• Set up Hypotheses : Before starting, you make a prediction:
• Null Hypothesis (H0): The new drug has no effect. Any difference in healing time between the two groups is just due to random chance.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The new drug does have an effect. The difference in healing time between the two groups is significant and not just by chance.

Calculate Test statistic and P-Value : After the experiment, you analyze the data. The “test statistic” is a number that helps you understand the difference between the two groups in terms of standard units.

For instance, let’s say:

• The average healing time in the Drug Group is 2 hours.
• The average healing time in the Placebo Group is 3 hours.

The test statistic helps you understand how significant this 1-hour difference is. If the groups are large and the spread of healing times in each group is small, then this difference might be significant. But if there’s a huge variation in healing times, the 1-hour difference might not be so special.

Imagine the P-value as answering this question: “If the new drug had NO real effect, what’s the probability that I’d see a difference as extreme (or more extreme) as the one I found, just by random chance?”

For instance:

• P-value of 0.01 means there’s a 1% chance that the observed difference (or a more extreme difference) would occur if the drug had no effect. That’s pretty rare, so we might consider the drug effective.
• P-value of 0.5 means there’s a 50% chance you’d see this difference just by chance. That’s pretty high, so we might not be convinced the drug is doing much.
• If the P-value is less than ($α$) 0.05: the results are “statistically significant,” and they might reject the null hypothesis , believing the new drug has an effect.
• If the P-value is greater than ($α$) 0.05: the results are not statistically significant, and they don’t reject the null hypothesis , remaining unsure if the drug has a genuine effect.

4. Example in python

For simplicity, let’s say we’re using a t-test (common for comparing means). Let’s dive into Python:

Making a Decision : “The results are statistically significant! p-value < 0.05 , The drug seems to have an effect!” If not, we’d say, “Looks like the drug isn’t as miraculous as we thought.”

5. Conclusion

Hypothesis testing is an indispensable tool in data science, allowing us to make data-driven decisions with confidence. By understanding its principles, conducting tests properly, and considering real-world applications, you can harness the power of hypothesis testing to unlock valuable insights from your data.

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What is Hypothesis in Machine Learning? How to Form a Hypothesis?

Hypothesis Testing is a broad subject that is applicable to many fields. When we study statistics, the Hypothesis Testing there involves data from multiple populations and the test is to see how significant the effect is on the population.

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This involves calculating the p-value and comparing it with the critical value or the alpha. When it comes to Machine Learning, Hypothesis Testing deals with finding the function that best approximates independent features to the target. In other words, map the inputs to the outputs.

By the end of this tutorial, you will know the following:

• What is Hypothesis in Statistics vs Machine Learning
• What is Hypothesis space?

Process of Forming a Hypothesis

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Hypothesis in Statistics

A Hypothesis is an assumption of a result that is falsifiable, meaning it can be proven wrong by some evidence. A Hypothesis can be either rejected or failed to be rejected. We never accept any hypothesis in statistics because it is all about probabilities and we are never 100% certain. Before the start of the experiment, we define two hypotheses:

1. Null Hypothesis: says that there is no significant effect

2. Alternative Hypothesis: says that there is some significant effect

In statistics, we compare the P-value (which is calculated using different types of statistical tests) with the critical value or alpha. The larger the P-value, the higher is the likelihood, which in turn signifies that the effect is not significant and we conclude that we fail to reject the null hypothesis .

In other words, the effect is highly likely to have occurred by chance and there is no statistical significance of it. On the other hand, if we get a P-value very small, it means that the likelihood is small. That means the probability of the event occurring by chance is very low. 

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Significance Level

The Significance Level is set before starting the experiment. This defines how much is the tolerance of error and at which level can the effect can be considered significant. A common value for significance level is 95% which also means that there is a 5% chance of us getting fooled by the test and making an error. In other words, the critical value is 0.05 which acts as a threshold. Similarly, if the significance level was set at 99%, it would mean a critical value of 0.01%.

A statistical test is carried out on the population and sample to find out the P-value which then is compared with the critical value. If the P-value comes out to be less than the critical value, then we can conclude that the effect is significant and hence reject the Null Hypothesis (that said there is no significant effect). If P-Value comes out to be more than the critical value, we can conclude that there is no significant effect and hence fail to reject the Null Hypothesis.

Now, as we can never be 100% sure, there is always a chance of our tests being correct but the results being misleading. This means that either we reject the null when it is actually not wrong. It can also mean that we don’t reject the null when it is actually false. These are type 1 and type 2 errors of Hypothesis Testing. 

Example  

Consider you’re working for a vaccine manufacturer and your team develops the vaccine for Covid-19. To prove the efficacy of this vaccine, it needs to statistically proven that it is effective on humans. Therefore, we take two groups of people of equal size and properties. We give the vaccine to group A and we give a placebo to group B. We carry out analysis to see how many people in group A got infected and how many in group B got infected.

We test this multiple times to see if group A developed any significant immunity against Covid-19 or not. We calculate the P-value for all these tests and conclude that P-values are always less than the critical value. Hence, we can safely reject the null hypothesis and conclude there is indeed a significant effect.

Read:  Machine Learning Models Explained

Hypothesis in Machine Learning

Hypothesis in Machine Learning is used when in a Supervised Machine Learning, we need to find the function that best maps input to output. This can also be called function approximation because we are approximating a target function that best maps feature to the target.

1. Hypothesis(h): A Hypothesis can be a single model that maps features to the target, however, may be the result/metrics. A hypothesis is signified by “ h ”.

2. Hypothesis Space(H): A Hypothesis space is a complete range of models and their possible parameters that can be used to model the data. It is signified by “ H ”. In other words, the Hypothesis is a subset of Hypothesis Space.

In essence, we have the training data (independent features and the target) and a target function that maps features to the target. These are then run on different types of algorithms using different types of configuration of their hyperparameter space to check which configuration produces the best results. The training data is used to formulate and find the best hypothesis from the hypothesis space. The test data is used to validate or verify the results produced by the hypothesis.

Consider an example where we have a dataset of 10000 instances with 10 features and one target. The target is binary, which means it is a binary classification problem. Now, say, we model this data using Logistic Regression and get an accuracy of 78%. We can draw the regression line which separates both the classes. This is a Hypothesis(h). Then we test this hypothesis on test data and get a score of 74%. 

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Now, again assume we fit a RandomForests model on the same data and get an accuracy score of 85%. This is a good improvement over Logistic Regression already. Now we decide to tune the hyperparameters of RandomForests to get a better score on the same data. We do a grid search and run multiple RandomForest models on the data and check their performance. In this step, we are essentially searching the Hypothesis Space(H) to find a better function. After completing the grid search, we get the best score of 89% and we end the search. 

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Now we also try more models like XGBoost, Support Vector Machine and Naive Bayes theorem to test their performances on the same data. We then pick the best performing model and test it on the test data to validate its performance and get a score of 87%. 

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Before you go

The hypothesis is a crucial aspect of Machine Learning and Data Science. It is present in all the domains of analytics and is the deciding factor of whether a change should be introduced or not. Be it pharma, software, sales, etc. A Hypothesis covers the complete training dataset to check the performance of the models from the Hypothesis space.

A Hypothesis must be falsifiable, which means that it must be possible to test and prove it wrong if the results go against it. The process of searching for the best configuration of the model is time-consuming when a lot of different configurations need to be verified. There are ways to speed up this process as well by using techniques like Random Search of hyperparameters.

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Yes. Open-source projects do not discriminate. The open-source communities are made of people who love to write code. There is always a place for a newbie. You will learn a lot and also have the chance to participate in a variety of open-source projects. You will learn what works and what doesn't and you will also have the chance to make your code used by a large community of developers. There is a list of open-source projects that are always looking for new contributors.

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Hypothesis in Machine Learning: Comprehensive Overview(2021)

Introduction

Supervised machine learning (ML) is regularly portrayed as the issue of approximating an objective capacity that maps inputs to outputs. This portrayal is described as looking through and assessing competitor hypothesis from hypothesis spaces. 

The conversation of hypothesis in machine learning can be confused for a novice, particularly when “hypothesis” has a discrete, but correlated significance in statistics and all the more comprehensively in science.

Hypothesis Space (H)

The hypothesis space utilized by an ML system is the arrangement of all hypotheses that may be returned by it. It is ordinarily characterized by a Hypothesis Language, conceivably related to a Language Bias. 

Many ML algorithms depend on some sort of search methodology: given a set of perceptions and a space of all potential hypotheses that may be thought in the hypothesis space. They see in this space for those hypotheses that adequately furnish the data or are ideal concerning some other quality standard.

ML can be portrayed as the need to utilize accessible data objects to discover a function that most reliable maps inputs to output, alluded to as function estimate, where we surmised an anonymous objective function that can most reliably map inputs to outputs on all expected perceptions from the difficult domain. An illustration of a model that approximates the performs mappings and target function of inputs to outputs is known as hypothesis testing in machine learning.

The hypothesis in machine learning of all potential hypothesis that you are looking over, paying little mind to their structure. For the wellbeing of accommodation, the hypothesis class is normally compelled to be just each sort of function or model in turn, since learning techniques regularly just work on each type at a time. This doesn’t need to be the situation, however:

• Hypothesis classes don’t need to comprise just one kind of function. If you’re looking through exponential, quadratic, and overall linear functions, those are what your joined hypothesis class contains.
• Hypothesis classes additionally don’t need to comprise of just straightforward functions. If you figure out how to look over all piecewise-tanh2 functions, those functions are what your hypothesis class incorporates.

The enormous trade-off is that the bigger your hypothesis class in   machine learning, the better the best hypothesis models the basic genuine function, yet the harder it is to locate that best hypothesis. This is identified with the bias-variance trade-off.

• Hypothesis (h)

A hypothesis function in machine learning is best describes the target. The hypothesis that an algorithm would concoct relies on the data and relies on the bias and restrictions that we have forced on the data.

The hypothesis formula in machine learning:

• y  is range
• m  changes in y divided by change in x
• x  is domain
• b  is intercept

The purpose of restricting hypothesis space in machine learning is so that these can fit well with the general data that is needed by the user. It checks the reality or deception of observations or inputs and examinations them appropriately. Subsequently, it is extremely helpful and it plays out the valuable function of mapping all the inputs till they come out as outputs. Consequently, the target functions are deliberately examined and restricted dependent on the outcomes (regardless of whether they are free of bias), in ML.

The hypothesis in machine learning space and inductive bias in machine learning is that the hypothesis space is a collection of valid Hypothesis, for example, every single desirable function, on the opposite side the inductive bias (otherwise called learning bias) of a learning algorithm is the series of expectations that the learner uses to foresee outputs of given sources of inputs that it has not experienced. Regression and Classification are a kind of realizing which relies upon continuous-valued and discrete-valued sequentially. This sort of issues (learnings) is called inductive learning issues since we distinguish a function by inducting it on data.

In the Maximum a Posteriori or MAP hypothesis in machine learning, enhancement gives a Bayesian probability structure to fitting model parameters to training data and another option and sibling may be a more normal Maximum Likelihood Estimation system. MAP learning chooses a solitary in all probability theory given the data. The hypothesis in machine learning earlier is as yet utilized and the technique is regularly more manageable than full Bayesian learning. 

Bayesian techniques can be utilized to decide the most plausible hypothesis in machine learning given the data the MAP hypothesis. This is the ideal hypothesis as no other hypothesis is more probable.

Hypothesis in machine learning or ML the applicant model that approximates a target function for mapping instances of inputs to outputs.

Hypothesis in statistics probabilistic clarification about the presence of a connection between observations. 

Hypothesis in science is a temporary clarification that fits the proof and can be disproved or confirmed. We can see that a hypothesis in machine learning draws upon the meaning of the hypothesis all the more extensively in science.

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What is Machine Learning? A Comprehensive Guide for Beginners

• Written by Karin Kelley
• Updated on February 12, 2024

In our increasingly digitized world, machine learning (ML) has gained significant prominence. From self-driving cars to personalized recommendations on streaming platforms, ML algorithms are revolutionizing various aspects of our lives.

But what is machine learning exactly? This blog will unravel the mysteries behind this transformative technology, shedding light on its inner workings and exploring its vast potential. We’ll also share how you can learn machine learning in an online ML course .

What is Machine Learning, and How Does it Work?

At its core, machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) that equips computer systems to learn and improve from experience without explicit programming. In other words, instead of relying on precise instructions, these systems autonomously analyze and interpret data to identify patterns, make predictions, and make informed decisions.

The key to the power of ML lies in its ability to process vast amounts of data with remarkable speed and accuracy. By feeding algorithms with massive data sets, machines can uncover complex patterns and generate valuable insights that inform decision-making processes across diverse industries, from healthcare and finance to marketing and transportation.

Also Read: AI ML Engineer Salary – What You Can Expect

History of Machine Learning: Pioneering the Path to Intelligent Automation

Machine learning, as we know it today, results from decades of groundbreaking research, technological advancements, and visionary minds. Let’s take a journey through time to explore the key milestones and notable events that have shaped the history of ML:

• 1943: Warren McCulloch and Walter Pitts laid the foundation for artificial neural networks, proposing a mathematical model of how neurons in the brain could compute and learn.
• 1950: Alan Turing introduces the concept of the “imitation game,” which became the Turing test, which aims to determine a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behavior indistinguishable from a human’s.
• 1956: The Dartmouth Workshop, organized by John McCarthy, Marvin Minsky, Nathaniel Rochester, and Claude Shannon, marks the birth of artificial intelligence as a formal research field and sets the stage for future advancements in ML.
• 1957: Frank Rosenblatt developed the perceptron, an early form of an artificial neural network capable of learning and making decisions based on inputs.
• 1967: The “nearest neighbor” algorithm, introduced by Peter Hart, Richard Duda, and David Stork, paves the way for pattern recognition and classification tasks in machine learning.
• 1979: The backpropagation algorithm, proposed by Paul Werbos, revolutionizes the training of artificial neural networks, enabling them to learn from data through iterative weight adjustments.
• 1986: The concept of “deep learning” emerges as Geoffrey Hinton, along with David Rumelhart and Ronald Williams, demonstrates the successful training of multi-layered neural networks, unlocking their potential for complex pattern recognition tasks.
• 1997: IBM’s Deep Blue defeats world chess champion Garry Kasparov, showcasing the power of ML in strategic decision-making and inspiring further advancements in game-playing algorithms.
• 2006: Jeff Dean and Andrew Ng release Google’s groundbreaking machine learning library, TensorFlow, providing researchers and developers with a powerful toolset for building and deploying ML models.
• 2011: IBM’s Watson wins the game show Jeopardy!, marking a significant milestone in natural language processing and demonstrating the capability of machine learning algorithms to understand and respond to human language.
• 2012: AlexNet, a deep convolutional neural network developed by Alex Krizhevsky, wins the ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge, propelling the resurgence of deep learning and its applications in computer vision.
• 2014: Facebook introduces DeepFace, a facial recognition system powered by deep learning, achieving unprecedented accuracy in identifying faces across vast data sets.
• 2016: AlphaGo, developed by DeepMind, defeats world champion Go player Lee Sedol, showcasing the prowess of ML algorithms in mastering complex strategic games.
• 2017: Generative adversarial networks (GANs), introduced by Ian Goodfellow, revolutionize the field of generative modeling, enabling the creation of realistic synthetic data and driving advancements in computer vision and creative applications.
• 2018: OpenAI introduces GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer), a language model capable of generating coherent and contextually relevant text, pushing the boundaries of natural language processing.
• 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic sparks numerous machine learning initiatives, ranging from vaccine development and drug discovery to epidemiological forecasting and contact tracing, highlighting the invaluable role of ML in addressing global challenges.

The history of machine learning is a testament to human ingenuity, perseverance, and the continuous pursuit of pushing the boundaries of what machines can achieve. Today, ML is integrated into various aspects of our lives, propelling advancements in healthcare, finance, transportation, and many other fields, while constantly evolving.

What is Machine Learning, and Why Do We Need It?

The need for machine learning has become more apparent in our increasingly complex and data-driven world. Traditional approaches to problem-solving and decision-making often fall short when confronted with massive amounts of data and intricate patterns that human minds struggle to comprehend. With its ability to process vast amounts of information and uncover hidden insights, ML is the key to unlocking the full potential of this data-rich era.

First and foremost, machine learning enables us to make more accurate predictions and informed decisions. ML algorithms can provide valuable insights and forecasts across various domains by analyzing historical data and identifying underlying patterns and trends. From weather prediction and financial market analysis to disease diagnosis and customer behavior forecasting, the predictive power of machine learning empowers us to anticipate outcomes, mitigate risks, and optimize strategies.

Moreover, it can potentially transform industries and improve operational efficiency. With its ability to automate complex tasks and handle repetitive processes, ML frees up human resources and allows them to focus on higher-level activities that require creativity, critical thinking, and problem-solving. ML offers unprecedented opportunities for organizations to increase productivity and streamline operations, from streamlining supply chain management and optimizing logistics routes to automating quality control and enhancing customer support through chatbots.

In summary, the need for ML stems from the inherent challenges posed by the abundance of data and the complexity of modern problems. By harnessing the power of machine learning, we can unlock hidden insights, make accurate predictions, and revolutionize industries, ultimately shaping a future that is driven by intelligent automation and data-driven decision-making.

Also Read: What are Today’s Top Ten AI Technologies?

What are the Applications of Machine Learning?

The applications of machine learning are virtually limitless. Machine-learning algorithms are woven into the fabric of our daily lives, from spam filters that protect our inboxes to virtual assistants that recognize our voices. They enable personalized product recommendations, power fraud detection systems, optimize supply chain management, and drive advancements in medical research, among countless other endeavors.

What are the Main Types of ML?

Let’s start diving deeper into our answer to “What is machine learning?”

ML algorithms can be broadly categorized into three types: supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning. In supervised machine learning, algorithms are trained on labeled data sets, enabling them to make predictions or classify new, unseen data accurately. On the other hand, unsupervised machine learning involves training algorithms on unlabeled data, enabling them to identify hidden patterns and structures within the information. Lastly, reinforcement learning involves training algorithms to make a series of decisions based on feedback received from the environment, aiming to maximize a specific reward.

What Are the Main Algorithms Used in ML?

Machine learning encompasses various algorithms designed to tackle specific tasks and data types. Here are some of the main algorithms commonly used in ML:

• Linear Regression: This algorithm predicts a continuous output variable based on one or more inputs, assuming a linear relationship between them.
• Logistic Regression: Logistic regression is used for binary classification tasks, predicting the probability of an event belonging to one of two classes based on input features.
• Decision Trees: Decision trees are versatile algorithms for classification and regression tasks. They create a flowchart-like structure based on data features, enabling decision-making based on learned patterns.
• Random Forest: A random forest is an ensemble learning method that combines multiple decision trees to improve accuracy and reduce overfitting. It is effective for both classification and regression tasks.
• Support Vector Machines (SVM): SVM is a powerful algorithm for classification and regression tasks. It identifies a hyperplane that maximally separates data points of different classes or predicts continuous values.
• Naive Bayes: Naive Bayes is a probabilistic algorithm commonly used for classification tasks. It applies Bayes’ theorem with the assumption of feature independence to make predictions.
• K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN): KNN is a non-parametric algorithm for classification and regression tasks. It predicts based on the similarity of new instances to its k nearest neighbors in the training data.
• Neural Networks: Neural networks are versatile algorithms inspired by the human brain’s structure. They consist of interconnected nodes (neurons) organized in layers, enabling them to learn complex patterns and solve various tasks like classification, regression, and image recognition.
• Clustering Algorithms: Clustering algorithms, such as K-means and DBSCAN, group similar data points together based on their characteristics, identifying hidden structures or patterns within unlabeled data.
• Reinforcement Learning: Reinforcement learning is an algorithmic approach where an agent learns to make sequential decisions based on feedback from the environment, aiming to maximize a reward signal.

These are just a few examples of the algorithms used in machine learning. Depending on the problem, different algorithms or combinations may be more suitable, showcasing the versatility and adaptability of ML techniques.

Comparing Machine Learning vs. Deep Learning vs. Neural Networks

Machine learning, deep learning, and neural networks are all interconnected terms that are often used interchangeably, but they represent distinct concepts within the field of artificial intelligence. Let’s explore the key differences and relationships between these three concepts.

Machine Learning

Machine learning is a broad umbrella term encompassing various algorithms and techniques that enable computer systems to learn and improve from data without explicit programming. It focuses on developing models that can automatically analyze and interpret data, identify patterns, and make predictions or decisions. ML algorithms can be categorized into supervised machine learning, unsupervised machine learning, and reinforcement learning, each with its own approach to learning from data.

Neural Networks

Neural networks are a subset of ML algorithms inspired by the structure and functioning of the human brain. They consist of interconnected nodes (neurons) organized in layers. Each neuron processes input data, applies a mathematical transformation, and passes the output to the next layer. Neural networks learn by adjusting the weights and biases between neurons during training, allowing them to recognize complex patterns and relationships within data. Neural networks can be shallow (few layers) or deep (many layers), with deep neural networks often called deep learning.

Deep Learning

Deep learning is a subfield of machine learning that focuses on training deep neural networks with multiple layers. It leverages the power of these complex architectures to automatically learn hierarchical representations of data, extracting increasingly abstract features at each layer. Deep learning has gained prominence recently due to its remarkable success in tasks such as image and speech recognition, natural language processing, and generative modeling. It relies on large amounts of labeled data and significant computational resources for training but has demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in solving complex problems.

In summary, machine learning is the broader concept encompassing various algorithms and techniques for learning from data. Neural networks are a specific type of ML algorithm inspired by the brain’s structure. Conversely, deep learning is a subfield of ML that focuses on training deep neural networks with many layers. Deep learning is a powerful tool for solving complex tasks, pushing the boundaries of what is possible with machine learning.

Also Read: The Future of AI: A Comprehensive Guide

What are the Advantages and Disadvantages of ML?

Advantages of machine learning.

• Increased Accuracy: ML algorithms can process and analyze vast amounts of data, leading to more accurate predictions and decision-making than traditional methods.
• Time and Cost Efficiency: Automating tasks and processes can significantly reduce time and costs associated with manual labor, leading to improved efficiency and resource allocation.
• Scalability: ML models can handle large and complex data sets, allowing for scalability and adaptability to changing business needs.
• Real-Time Insights: Machine learning algorithms can analyze data in real time, enabling organizations to respond promptly to emerging trends, anomalies, or threats.
• Pattern Recognition: ML algorithms excel at identifying complex patterns and relationships within data, leading to valuable insights and improved understanding of various phenomena.

Disadvantages of Machine Learning

• Data Dependency: ML algorithms rely heavily on data quality and quantity for training. Insufficient or biased data can lead to inaccurate or biased outcomes.
• Overfitting or Underfitting: ML models can overfit or underfit the training data, resulting in poor generalization to new data. Proper model tuning and validation techniques are required to mitigate this issue.
• Lack of Interpretability: Some machine learning algorithms, such as deep neural networks, operate as black boxes, making it challenging to interpret and explain their decision-making process.
• Ethical Concerns: Machine learning systems can perpetuate biases present in the data they are trained on, leading to discriminatory outcomes. Ensuring fairness and addressing ethical considerations in algorithm design is crucial.
• Initial Investment and Expertise: Implementing ML solutions often requires significant investment in computational resources, infrastructure, and skilled personnel for development, training, and maintenance.

It is important to note that while ML offers numerous advantages, careful consideration of its limitations and ethical implications is essential for responsible and effective deployment.

Why Learn Machine Learning and How to Get Started

ML has become indispensable in today’s data-driven world, opening up exciting industry opportunities. Now that you have a full answer to the question “What is machine learning?” here are compelling reasons why people should embark on the journey of learning ML, along with some actionable steps to get started.

• Unlocking Career Opportunities: ML expertise is highly sought after by employers in fields like data science, artificial intelligence, robotics, finance, healthcare, and more. Learning machine learning can pave the way for rewarding career paths and increased job prospects.
• Driving Innovation and Problem-Solving: It enables individuals to tackle complex problems, make data-driven decisions, and develop innovative solutions. Acquiring ML skills empowers individuals to create cutting-edge applications, drive technological advancements, and contribute to societal progress.
• Embracing the Future of Technology: Machine learning is at the forefront of technological advancements, shaping the future of automation, intelligent systems, and predictive analytics. Individuals can actively participate in and shape the evolving digital landscape by learning ML.

Now, let’s explore some steps to get started with machine learning.

• Gain a Solid Foundation in Mathematics and Statistics: Familiarize yourself with key mathematical concepts such as linear algebra, calculus, and probability theory. Understanding statistics is crucial for data analysis and model evaluation.
• Learn Programming: Start by learning a programming language commonly used in ML, such as Python or R. These languages offer extensive libraries and frameworks specifically designed for machine learning tasks.
• Take Online Courses and Tutorials: Online learning platforms offer many resources to learn ML. Explore upskilling platforms, which provide comprehensive machine learning bootcamps taught by industry experts and academics.
• Practice with Real-world Data Sets: Apply your knowledge by working on real-world data sets. Platforms like Kaggle offer data sets and competitions that allow you to solve practical problems and learn from the community.
• Join Communities: Engage with the ML community through forums, discussion groups, and social media platforms. Participating in discussions and collaborating with others can enhance your learning experience.
• Build Projects and Apply Your Knowledge: Put your skills to the test by working on machine learning projects . Start with simple projects, gradually progressing to more complex ones. Building projects helps solidify your understanding and showcases your abilities to potential employers.
• Stay Updated and Continuously Learn: ML is a rapidly evolving field. Stay updated with the latest research papers, attend conferences, and follow influential figures in the field to keep abreast of advancements.

Remember, learning ML is a journey that requires dedication, practice, and a curious mindset. By embracing the challenge and investing time and effort into learning, individuals can unlock the vast potential of machine learning and shape their own success in the digital era.

You might also like to read:

What Artificial Intelligence Engineer Salary Can You Expect?

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Evaluating Hypotheses in Machine Learning: A Comprehensive Guide

Learn how to evaluate hypotheses in machine learning, including types of hypotheses, evaluation metrics, and common pitfalls to avoid. Improve your ML model's performance with this in-depth guide.

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Introduction

Machine learning is a crucial aspect of artificial intelligence that enables machines to learn from data and make predictions or decisions. The process of machine learning involves training a model on a dataset, and then using that model to make predictions on new, unseen data. However, before deploying a machine learning model, it is essential to evaluate its performance to ensure that it is accurate and reliable. One crucial step in this evaluation process is hypothesis testing.

In this blog post, we will delve into the world of hypothesis testing in machine learning, exploring what hypotheses are, why they are essential, and how to evaluate them. We will also discuss the different types of hypotheses, common pitfalls to avoid, and best practices for hypothesis testing.

What are Hypotheses in Machine Learning?

In machine learning, a hypothesis is a statement that proposes a possible explanation for a phenomenon or a problem. It is a conjecture that is made about a population parameter, and it is used as a basis for further investigation. In the context of machine learning, hypotheses are used to define the problem that we are trying to solve.

For example, let's say we are building a machine learning model to predict the prices of houses based on their features, such as the number of bedrooms, square footage, and location. A possible hypothesis could be: "The price of a house is directly proportional to its square footage." This hypothesis proposes a possible relationship between the price of a house and its square footage.

Why are Hypotheses Essential in Machine Learning?

Hypotheses are essential in machine learning because they provide a framework for understanding the problem that we are trying to solve. They help us to identify the key variables that are relevant to the problem, and they provide a basis for evaluating the performance of our machine learning model.

Without a clear hypothesis, it is difficult to develop an effective machine learning model. A hypothesis helps us to:

• Identify the key variables that are relevant to the problem
• Develop a clear understanding of the problem that we are trying to solve
• Evaluate the performance of our machine learning model
• Refine our model and improve its accuracy

Types of Hypotheses in Machine Learning

There are two main types of hypotheses in machine learning: null hypotheses and alternative hypotheses.

Null Hypothesis

A null hypothesis is a hypothesis that proposes that there is no significant difference or relationship between variables. It is a hypothesis of no effect or no difference. For example, let's say we are building a machine learning model to predict the prices of houses based on their features. A null hypothesis could be: "There is no significant relationship between the price of a house and its square footage."

Alternative Hypothesis

An alternative hypothesis is a hypothesis that proposes that there is a significant difference or relationship between variables. It is a hypothesis of an effect or a difference. For example, let's say we are building a machine learning model to predict the prices of houses based on their features. An alternative hypothesis could be: "There is a significant positive relationship between the price of a house and its square footage."

Evaluating Hypotheses in Machine Learning

Evaluating hypotheses in machine learning involves testing the null hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis. This is typically done using statistical methods, such as t-tests, ANOVA, and regression analysis.

Here are the general steps involved in evaluating hypotheses in machine learning:

• Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses : Clearly define the null and alternative hypotheses that you want to test.
• Collect and prepare the data : Collect the data that you will use to test the hypotheses. Ensure that the data is clean, relevant, and representative of the population.
• Choose a statistical method : Select a suitable statistical method to test the hypotheses. This could be a t-test, ANOVA, regression analysis, or another method.
• Test the hypotheses : Use the chosen statistical method to test the null hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis.
• Interpret the results : Interpret the results of the hypothesis test. If the null hypothesis is rejected, it suggests that there is a significant relationship between the variables. If the null hypothesis is not rejected, it suggests that there is no significant relationship between the variables.

Common Pitfalls to Avoid in Hypothesis Testing

Here are some common pitfalls to avoid in hypothesis testing:

• Overfitting : Overfitting occurs when a model is too complex and performs well on the training data but poorly on new, unseen data. To avoid overfitting, use techniques such as regularization, early stopping, and cross-validation.
• Underfitting : Underfitting occurs when a model is too simple and fails to capture the underlying patterns in the data. To avoid underfitting, use techniques such as feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning, and model selection.
• Data leakage : Data leakage occurs when the model is trained on data that it will also be tested on. To avoid data leakage, use techniques such as cross-validation and walk-forward optimization.
• P-hacking : P-hacking occurs when a researcher selectively reports the results of multiple hypothesis tests to find a significant result. To avoid p-hacking, use techniques such as preregistration and replication.

Best Practices for Hypothesis Testing in Machine Learning

Here are some best practices for hypothesis testing in machine learning:

• Clearly define the hypotheses : Clearly define the null and alternative hypotheses that you want to test.
• Use a suitable statistical method : Choose a suitable statistical method to test the hypotheses.
• Use cross-validation : Use cross-validation to evaluate the performance of the model on unseen data.
• Avoid overfitting and underfitting : Use techniques such as regularization, early stopping, and feature engineering to avoid overfitting and underfitting.
• Document the results : Document the results of the hypothesis test, including the statistical method used, the results, and any conclusions drawn.

Evaluating hypotheses is a crucial step in machine learning that helps us to understand the problem that we are trying to solve and to evaluate the performance of our machine learning model. By following the best practices outlined in this blog post, you can ensure that your hypothesis testing is rigorous, reliable, and effective.

Remember to clearly define the null and alternative hypotheses, choose a suitable statistical method, and avoid common pitfalls such as overfitting, underfitting, data leakage, and p-hacking. By doing so, you can develop machine learning models that are accurate, reliable, and effective.

• [1] James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2013). An Introduction to Statistical Learning: With Applications in R. Springer.
• [2] Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Springer.
• [3] Han, J., Pei, J., & Kamber, M. (2012). Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques. Morgan Kaufmann.

I hope this helps! Let me know if you need any further assistance.

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Machine Learning - Hypothesis

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In machine learning, a hypothesis is a proposed explanation or solution for a problem. It is a tentative assumption or idea that can be tested and validated using data. In supervised learning, the hypothesis is the model that the algorithm is trained on to make predictions on unseen data.

The hypothesis is generally expressed as a function that maps input data to output labels. In other words, it defines the relationship between the input and output variables. The goal of machine learning is to find the best possible hypothesis that can generalize well to unseen data.

The process of finding the best hypothesis is called model training or learning. During the training process, the algorithm adjusts the model parameters to minimize the error or loss function, which measures the difference between the predicted output and the actual output.

Once the model is trained, it can be used to make predictions on new data. However, it is important to evaluate the performance of the model before using it in the real world. This is done by testing the model on a separate validation set or using cross-validation techniques.

Properties of a Good Hypothesis

The hypothesis plays a critical role in the success of a machine learning model. A good hypothesis should have the following properties −

Generalization − The model should be able to make accurate predictions on unseen data.

Simplicity − The model should be simple and interpretable, so that it is easier to understand and explain.

Robustness − The model should be able to handle noise and outliers in the data.

Scalability − The model should be able to handle large amounts of data efficiently.

There are many types of machine learning algorithms that can be used to generate hypotheses, including linear regression, logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, neural networks, and more.

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Hypothesis is a testable statement that explains what is happening or observed. It proposes the relation between the various participating variables. Hypothesis is also called Theory, Thesis, Guess, Assumption, or Suggestion. Hypothesis creates a structure that guides the search for knowledge.

In this article, we will learn what is hypothesis, its characteristics, types, and examples. We will also learn how hypothesis helps in scientific research.

Table of Content

What is Hypothesis?

Hypothesis meaning, characteristics of hypothesis, sources of hypothesis, types of hypothesis, simple hypothesis, complex hypothesis, directional hypothesis, non-directional hypothesis, null hypothesis (h0), alternative hypothesis (h1 or ha), statistical hypothesis, research hypothesis, associative hypothesis, causal hypothesis, hypothesis examples, simple hypothesis example, complex hypothesis example, directional hypothesis example, non-directional hypothesis example, alternative hypothesis (ha), functions of hypothesis, how hypothesis help in scientific research.

A hypothesis is a suggested idea or plan that has little proof, meant to lead to more study. It’s mainly a smart guess or suggested answer to a problem that can be checked through study and trial. In science work, we make guesses called hypotheses to try and figure out what will happen in tests or watching. These are not sure things but rather ideas that can be proved or disproved based on real-life proofs. A good theory is clear and can be tested and found wrong if the proof doesn’t support it.

A hypothesis is a proposed statement that is testable and is given for something that happens or observed.

• It is made using what we already know and have seen, and it’s the basis for scientific research.
• A clear guess tells us what we think will happen in an experiment or study.
• It’s a testable clue that can be proven true or wrong with real-life facts and checking it out carefully.
• It usually looks like a “if-then” rule, showing the expected cause and effect relationship between what’s being studied.

Here are some key characteristics of a hypothesis:

• Testable: An idea (hypothesis) should be made so it can be tested and proven true through doing experiments or watching. It should show a clear connection between things.
• Specific: It needs to be easy and on target, talking about a certain part or connection between things in a study.
• Falsifiable: A good guess should be able to show it’s wrong. This means there must be a chance for proof or seeing something that goes against the guess.
• Logical and Rational: It should be based on things we know now or have seen, giving a reasonable reason that fits with what we already know.
• Predictive: A guess often tells what to expect from an experiment or observation. It gives a guide for what someone might see if the guess is right.
• Concise: It should be short and clear, showing the suggested link or explanation simply without extra confusion.
• Grounded in Research: A guess is usually made from before studies, ideas or watching things. It comes from a deep understanding of what is already known in that area.
• Flexible: A guess helps in the research but it needs to change or fix when new information comes up.
• Relevant: It should be related to the question or problem being studied, helping to direct what the research is about.
• Empirical: Hypotheses come from observations and can be tested using methods based on real-world experiences.

Hypotheses can come from different places based on what you’re studying and the kind of research. Here are some common sources from which hypotheses may originate:

• Existing Theories: Often, guesses come from well-known science ideas. These ideas may show connections between things or occurrences that scientists can look into more.
• Observation and Experience: Watching something happen or having personal experiences can lead to guesses. We notice odd things or repeat events in everyday life and experiments. This can make us think of guesses called hypotheses.
• Previous Research: Using old studies or discoveries can help come up with new ideas. Scientists might try to expand or question current findings, making guesses that further study old results.
• Literature Review: Looking at books and research in a subject can help make guesses. Noticing missing parts or mismatches in previous studies might make researchers think up guesses to deal with these spots.
• Problem Statement or Research Question: Often, ideas come from questions or problems in the study. Making clear what needs to be looked into can help create ideas that tackle certain parts of the issue.
• Analogies or Comparisons: Making comparisons between similar things or finding connections from related areas can lead to theories. Understanding from other fields could create new guesses in a different situation.
• Hunches and Speculation: Sometimes, scientists might get a gut feeling or make guesses that help create ideas to test. Though these may not have proof at first, they can be a beginning for looking deeper.
• Technology and Innovations: New technology or tools might make guesses by letting us look at things that were hard to study before.
• Personal Interest and Curiosity: People’s curiosity and personal interests in a topic can help create guesses. Scientists could make guesses based on their own likes or love for a subject.

Here are some common types of hypotheses:

• Non-directional Hypothesis

Simple Hypothesis guesses a connection between two things. It says that there is a connection or difference between variables, but it doesn’t tell us which way the relationship goes.

Complex Hypothesis tells us what will happen when more than two things are connected. It looks at how different things interact and may be linked together.

Directional Hypothesis says how one thing is related to another. For example, it guesses that one thing will help or hurt another thing.

Non-Directional Hypothesis are the one that don’t say how the relationship between things will be. They just say that there is a connection, without telling which way it goes.

Null hypothesis is a statement that says there’s no connection or difference between different things. It implies that any seen impacts are because of luck or random changes in the information.

Alternative Hypothesis is different from the null hypothesis and shows that there’s a big connection or gap between variables. Scientists want to say no to the null hypothesis and choose the alternative one.

Statistical Hypotheis are used in math testing and include making ideas about what groups or bits of them look like. You aim to get information or test certain things using these top-level, common words only.

Research Hypothesis comes from the research question and tells what link is expected between things or factors. It leads the study and chooses where to look more closely.

Associative Hypotheis guesses that there is a link or connection between things without really saying it caused them. It means that when one thing changes, it is connected to another thing changing.

Causal Hypothesis are different from other ideas because they say that one thing causes another. This means there’s a cause and effect relationship between variables involved in the situation. They say that when one thing changes, it directly makes another thing change.

Following are the examples of hypotheses based on their types:

• Studying more can help you do better on tests.
• Getting more sun makes people have higher amounts of vitamin D.
• How rich you are, how easy it is to get education and healthcare greatly affects the number of years people live.
• A new medicine’s success relies on the amount used, how old a person is who takes it and their genes.
• Drinking more sweet drinks is linked to a higher body weight score.
• Too much stress makes people less productive at work.
• Drinking caffeine can affect how well you sleep.
• People often like different kinds of music based on their gender.
• The average test scores of Group A and Group B are not much different.
• There is no connection between using a certain fertilizer and how much it helps crops grow.
• Patients on Diet A have much different cholesterol levels than those following Diet B.
• Exposure to a certain type of light can change how plants grow compared to normal sunlight.
• The average smarts score of kids in a certain school area is 100.
• The usual time it takes to finish a job using Method A is the same as with Method B.
• Having more kids go to early learning classes helps them do better in school when they get older.
• Using specific ways of talking affects how much customers get involved in marketing activities.
• Regular exercise helps to lower the chances of heart disease.
• Going to school more can help people make more money.
• Playing violent video games makes teens more likely to act aggressively.
• Less clean air directly impacts breathing health in city populations.

Hypotheses have many important jobs in the process of scientific research. Here are the key functions of hypotheses:

• Guiding Research: Hypotheses give a clear and exact way for research. They act like guides, showing the predicted connections or results that scientists want to study.
• Formulating Research Questions: Research questions often create guesses. They assist in changing big questions into particular, checkable things. They guide what the study should be focused on.
• Setting Clear Objectives: Hypotheses set the goals of a study by saying what connections between variables should be found. They set the targets that scientists try to reach with their studies.
• Testing Predictions: Theories guess what will happen in experiments or observations. By doing tests in a planned way, scientists can check if what they see matches the guesses made by their ideas.
• Providing Structure: Theories give structure to the study process by arranging thoughts and ideas. They aid scientists in thinking about connections between things and plan experiments to match.
• Focusing Investigations: Hypotheses help scientists focus on certain parts of their study question by clearly saying what they expect links or results to be. This focus makes the study work better.
• Facilitating Communication: Theories help scientists talk to each other effectively. Clearly made guesses help scientists to tell others what they plan, how they will do it and the results expected. This explains things well with colleagues in a wide range of audiences.
• Generating Testable Statements: A good guess can be checked, which means it can be looked at carefully or tested by doing experiments. This feature makes sure that guesses add to the real information used in science knowledge.
• Promoting Objectivity: Guesses give a clear reason for study that helps guide the process while reducing personal bias. They motivate scientists to use facts and data as proofs or disprovals for their proposed answers.
• Driving Scientific Progress: Making, trying out and adjusting ideas is a cycle. Even if a guess is proven right or wrong, the information learned helps to grow knowledge in one specific area.

Researchers use hypotheses to put down their thoughts directing how the experiment would take place. Following are the steps that are involved in the scientific method:

• Initiating Investigations: Hypotheses are the beginning of science research. They come from watching, knowing what’s already known or asking questions. This makes scientists make certain explanations that need to be checked with tests.
• Formulating Research Questions: Ideas usually come from bigger questions in study. They help scientists make these questions more exact and testable, guiding the study’s main point.
• Setting Clear Objectives: Hypotheses set the goals of a study by stating what we think will happen between different things. They set the goals that scientists want to reach by doing their studies.
• Designing Experiments and Studies: Assumptions help plan experiments and watchful studies. They assist scientists in knowing what factors to measure, the techniques they will use and gather data for a proposed reason.
• Testing Predictions: Ideas guess what will happen in experiments or observations. By checking these guesses carefully, scientists can see if the seen results match up with what was predicted in each hypothesis.
• Analysis and Interpretation of Data: Hypotheses give us a way to study and make sense of information. Researchers look at what they found and see if it matches the guesses made in their theories. They decide if the proof backs up or disagrees with these suggested reasons why things are happening as expected.
• Encouraging Objectivity: Hypotheses help make things fair by making sure scientists use facts and information to either agree or disagree with their suggested reasons. They lessen personal preferences by needing proof from experience.
• Iterative Process: People either agree or disagree with guesses, but they still help the ongoing process of science. Findings from testing ideas make us ask new questions, improve those ideas and do more tests. It keeps going on in the work of science to keep learning things.

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Mathematics Maths Formulas Branches of Mathematics

Summary – Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a testable statement serving as an initial explanation for phenomena, based on observations, theories, or existing knowledge. It acts as a guiding light for scientific research, proposing potential relationships between variables that can be empirically tested through experiments and observations.

The hypothesis must be specific, testable, falsifiable, and grounded in prior research or observation, laying out a predictive, if-then scenario that details a cause-and-effect relationship. It originates from various sources including existing theories, observations, previous research, and even personal curiosity, leading to different types, such as simple, complex, directional, non-directional, null, and alternative hypotheses, each serving distinct roles in research methodology .

The hypothesis not only guides the research process by shaping objectives and designing experiments but also facilitates objective analysis and interpretation of data , ultimately driving scientific progress through a cycle of testing, validation, and refinement.

Hypothesis – FAQs

What is a hypothesis.

A guess is a possible explanation or forecast that can be checked by doing research and experiments.

What are Components of a Hypothesis?

The components of a Hypothesis are Independent Variable, Dependent Variable, Relationship between Variables, Directionality etc.

What makes a Good Hypothesis?

Testability, Falsifiability, Clarity and Precision, Relevance are some parameters that makes a Good Hypothesis

Can a Hypothesis be Proven True?

You cannot prove conclusively that most hypotheses are true because it’s generally impossible to examine all possible cases for exceptions that would disprove them.

How are Hypotheses Tested?

Hypothesis testing is used to assess the plausibility of a hypothesis by using sample data

Can Hypotheses change during Research?

Yes, you can change or improve your ideas based on new information discovered during the research process.

What is the Role of a Hypothesis in Scientific Research?

Hypotheses are used to support scientific research and bring about advancements in knowledge.

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What exactly is a hypothesis space in machine learning?

Whilst I understand the term conceptually, I'm struggling to understand it operationally. Could anyone help me out by providing an example?

• machine-learning
• terminology

• $\begingroup$ A space where we can predict output by a set of some legal hypothesis (or function) and function is represented in terms of features. $\endgroup$ –  Abhishek Kumar Commented Aug 9, 2019 at 17:03

3 Answers 3

Lets say you have an unknown target function $f:X \rightarrow Y$ that you are trying to capture by learning . In order to capture the target function you have to come up with some hypotheses, or you may call it candidate models denoted by H $h_1,...,h_n$ where $h \in H$ . Here, $H$ as the set of all candidate models is called hypothesis class or hypothesis space or hypothesis set .

For more information browse Abu-Mostafa's presentaton slides: https://work.caltech.edu/textbook.html

• 8 $\begingroup$ This answer conveys absolutely no information! What is the intended relationship between $f$, $h$, and $H$? What is meant by "hypothesis set"? $\endgroup$ –  whuber ♦ Commented Nov 28, 2015 at 20:50
• 5 $\begingroup$ Please take a few minutes with our help center to learn about this site and its standards, JimBoy. $\endgroup$ –  whuber ♦ Commented Nov 28, 2015 at 20:57
• $\begingroup$ The answer says very clear, h learns to capture target function f . H is the space where h1, h2,..hn got defined. $\endgroup$ –  Logan Commented Nov 29, 2018 at 21:47
• $\begingroup$ @whuber I hope this is clearer $\endgroup$ –  pentanol Commented Aug 6, 2021 at 8:51
• $\begingroup$ @pentanol You have succeeded in providing a different name for "hypothesis space," but without a definition or description of "candidate model," it doesn't seem to add any information to the post. What would be useful is information relevant to the questions that were posed, which concern "understand[ing] operationally" and a request for an example. $\endgroup$ –  whuber ♦ Commented Aug 6, 2021 at 13:55

Suppose an example with four binary features and one binary output variable. Below is a set of observations:

This set of observations can be used by a machine learning (ML) algorithm to learn a function f that is able to predict a value y for any input from the input space .

We are searching for the ground truth f(x) = y that explains the relation between x and y for all possible inputs in the correct way.

The function f has to be chosen from the hypothesis space .

To get a better idea: The input space is in the above given example $2^4$ , its the number of possible inputs. The hypothesis space is $2^{2^4}=65536$ because for each set of features of the input space two outcomes ( 0 and 1 ) are possible.

The ML algorithm helps us to find one function , sometimes also referred as hypothesis, from the relatively large hypothesis space.

• A Few Useful Things to Know About ML

• 1 $\begingroup$ Just a small note on your answer: the size of the hypothesis space is indeed 65,536, but the a more easily explained expression for it would be $2^{(2^4)}$, since, there are $2^4$ possible unique samples, and thus $2^{(2^4)}$ possible label assignments for the entire input space. $\endgroup$ –  engelen Commented Jan 10, 2018 at 9:52
• 1 $\begingroup$ @engelen Thanks for your advice, I've edited the answer. $\endgroup$ –  So S Commented Jan 10, 2018 at 21:00
• $\begingroup$ @SoS That one function is called classifier?? $\endgroup$ –  user125163 Commented Aug 22, 2018 at 16:26
• 2 $\begingroup$ @Arjun Hedge: Not the one, but one function that you learned is the classifier. The classifier could be (and that's your aim) the one function. $\endgroup$ –  So S Commented Aug 22, 2018 at 16:50

The hypothesis space is very relevant to the topic of the so-called Bias-Variance Tradeoff in maximum likelihood. That's if the number of parameters in the model(hypothesis function) is too small for the model to fit the data(indicating underfitting and that the hypothesis space is too limited), the bias is high; while if the model you choose contains too many parameters than needed to fit the data the variance is high(indicating overfitting and that the hypothesis space is too expressive).

As stated in So S ' answer, if the parameters are discrete we can easily and concretely calculate how many possibilities are in the hypothesis space(or how large it is), but normally under realy life circumstances the parameters are continuous. Therefore generally the hypothesis space is uncountable.

Here is an example I borrowed and modified from the related part in the classical machine learning textbook: Pattern Recognition And Machine Learning to fit this question:

We are selecting a hypothesis function for an unknown function hidding in the training data given by a third person named CoolGuy living in an extragalactic planet. Let's say CoolGuy knows what the function is, because the data cases are provided by him and he just generated the data using the function. Let's call it(we only have the limited data and CoolGuy has both the unlimited data and the function generating them) the ground truth function and denote it by $y(x, w)$ .

The green curve is the $y(x,w)$ , and the little blue circles are the cases we have(they are not actually the true data cases transmitted by CoolGuy because of the it would be contaminated by some transmission noise, for example by macula or other things).

We thought that that hidden function would be very simple then we make an attempt at a linear model(make a hypothesis with a very limited space): $g_1(x, w)=w_0 + w_1 x$ with only two parameters: $w_0$ and $w_1$ , and we train the model use our data and we obtain this:

We can see that no matter how many data we use to fit the hypothesis it just doesn't work because it is not expressive enough.

So we try a much more expressive hypothesis: $g_9=\sum_j^9 w_j x^j $ with ten adaptive paramaters $w_0, w_1\cdots , w_9$ , and we also train the model and then we get:

We can see that it is just too expressive and fits all data cases. We see that a much larger hypothesis space( since $g_2$ can be expressed by $g_9$ by setting $w_2, w_3, \cdots, w_9$ as all 0 ) is more powerful than a simple hypothesis. But the generalization is also bad. That is, if we recieve more data from CoolGuy and to do reference, the trained model most likely fails in those unseen cases.

Then how large the hypothesis space is large enough for the training dataset? We can find an aswer from the textbook aforementioned:

One rough heuristic that is sometimes advocated is that the number of data points should be no less than some multiple (say 5 or 10) of the number of adaptive parameters in the model.

And you'll see from the textbook that if we try to use 4 parameters, $g_3=w_0+w_1 x + w_2 x^2 + w_3 x^3$ , the trained function is expressive enough for the underlying function $y=\sin(2\pi x)$ . It's kind a black art to find the number 3(the appropriate hypothesis space) in this case.

Then we can roughly say that the hypothesis space is the measure of how expressive you model is to fit the training data. The hypothesis that is expressive enough for the training data is the good hypothesis with an expressive hypothesis space. To test whether the hypothesis is good or bad we do the cross validation to see if it performs well in the validation data-set. If it is neither underfitting(too limited) nor overfititing(too expressive) the space is enough(according to Occam Razor a simpler one is preferable, but I digress).

• $\begingroup$ This approach looks relevant, but your explanation does not agree with that on p. 5 of your first reference: "A function $h:X\to\{0,1\}$ is called [an] hypothesis. A set $H$ of hypotheses among which the approximation function $y$ is searched is called [the] hypothesis space." (I would agree the slide is confusing, because its explanation implicitly requires that $C=\{0,1\}$, whereas that is generically labeled "classes" in the diagram. But let's not pass along that confusion: let's rectify it.) $\endgroup$ –  whuber ♦ Commented Sep 24, 2016 at 15:33
• 1 $\begingroup$ @whuber I updated my answer just now more than two years later after I have learned more knowledge on the topic. Please help check if I can rectify it in a better way. Thanks. $\endgroup$ –  Lerner Zhang Commented Feb 5, 2019 at 11:41

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Finding a Maximally Specific Hypothesis: Find-S

The find-S algorithm is a machine learning concept learning algorithm . The find-S technique identifies the hypothesis that best matches all of the positive cases. 

In this blog, we’ll discuss the algorithm and some examples of Find-S: an algorithm to find a maximally specific hypothesis. 

To understand it from scratch let’s have a look at all the terminologies involved, 

Hypothesis: 

It is usually represented with an ‘h’. In supervised machine learning, a hypothesis is a function that best characterizes the target. 

For example, Consider a coordinate plane showing the output as positive or negative for a given task. 

The Hypothesis Space is made up of all of the legal ways in which we might partition the coordinate plane to anticipate the outcome of the test data.

Each conceivable path, represented with a gray line is referred to as a hypothesis.

Specific Hypothesis: 

If a hypothesis, h, covers none of the negative cases and there is no other hypothesis, h′, that covers none of the negative examples, then h is strictly more general than h′, then h is said to be the most specific hypothesis. 

The specific hypothesis fills in important details about the variables given in the hypothesis.

The find-S algorithm is a machine learning concept learning algorithm. The find-S technique identifies the hypothesis that best matches all of the positive cases. The find-S algorithm considers only positive cases. 

When the find-S method fails to categorize observed positive training data, it starts with the most particular hypothesis and generalizes it. 

Representations:

• The most specific hypothesis is represented using ϕ.
• The most general hypothesis is represented using ?.

? basically means that any value is accepted for the attribute. 

Whereas, ϕ means no value is accepted for the attribute. 

Let’s have a look at the algorithm of Find-S: 

1. Initialize the value of the hypothesis for all attributes with the most specific one. That is, 

                            h 0 = < ϕ, ϕ, ϕ, ϕ…….. > 

2. Take the next example, if the taken example is negative leave them and move on to another example without changing our hypothesis for the step. 

3. Now, if the taken example is a positive example, then 

For each attribute, check if the value of the attribute is equal to that of the value we took in our hypothesis. 

If the value is equal then we’ll use the same value for the attribute in our hypothesis and move to another attribute. If the value of the attribute is not equal to that of the value in our specific hypothesis then change the value of our attribute in a specific hypothesis to the most general hypothesis (?). 

After we’ve completed all of the training examples, we’ll have a final hypothesis that we can use to categorize the new ones.

Let’s have a look at an example to see how Find-S works. 

Consider the following data set, which contains information about the best day for a person to enjoy their preferred sport.

Now initializing the value of the hypothesis for all attributes with the most specific one.

h 0 = < ϕ, ϕ, ϕ, ϕ, ϕ, ϕ> 

Consider example 1 , The attribute values are < Sunny, Warm, Normal, Strong, Warm, Same>. Since its target class(EnjoySport) value is yes, it is considered as a positive example. 

Now, We can see that our first hypothesis is more specific, and we must generalize it in this case. As a result, the hypothesis is:

h 1 = < Sunny, Warm, Normal, Strong, Warm, Same>

The second training example (also positive in this case) compels the algorithm to generalize h further, this time by replacing any attribute value in h that is not met by the new example with a “?”.

The attribute values are < Sunny, Warm, High, Strong, Warm, Same> 

The refined hypothesis now is, 

h 2 = < Sunny, Warm, ?, Strong, Warm, Same > 

Consider example 3, The attribute values are < Rainy, Cold, High, Strong, Warm, Change>. But since the target class value is No, it is considered as a negative example. 

h 3 = < Sunny, Warm, ?, Strong, Warm, Same > (Same as that of h2)

Every negative example is simply ignored by the FIND-S algorithm. As a result, no changes to h will be necessary in reaction to any unfavorable case.

The fourth (positive) case leads to a further generalization of h in our Find-S trace.

Consider example 4, It has the following information <Sunny, Warm, High, Strong, Cool, Change> which again is a positive example. 

Every attribute is compared to the initial data, and if there is a discrepancy, the attribute is replaced with a general case (“? “). After completing the procedure, the following hypothesis emerges:

h 4 = < Sunny, Warm, ?, Strong, ?, ? >

Therefore the final hypothesis is h = < Sunny, Warm, ?, Strong, ?, ? >.

The hypothesis is only expanded as far as is necessary to encompass the new positive case at each phase. As a result, the hypothesis at each step is the most particular hypothesis consistent with the training instances seen thus far (hence the name FIND-S).

FIND-S will always return the most specific hypothesis inside H that matches the positive training instances.

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What does it mean that an hypotesis is consistent?

I am studying concept learning , and I am focusing on the concept of consistency for an hypotesis.

Consider an Hypotesis $h$ , I have understood that it is consistent with a training set $D$ iff $h(x)=c(x)$ where $c(x)$ is the concept and this has to be verified for every sample $x$ in $D$ .

For example consider the following training set:

and the following hypotesis:

$h_1=<?,?,?,Strong,?,?>$

I have that this is not consistent with D because for the example $3$ in $D$ we have $h(x)!=c(x)$ .

I don't understand why this hypotesis is not consistent.

Infact, consider the following hypotesis:

$h=<Sunny,Warm,?,Strong,?,?>$

this is consistent with $D$ because for each example in $D$ we have $h(x)=c(x)$ .

But why the first hypotesis $h_1$ is not consistent while the second, $h$ , is consistent?

Can somebody please explain this to me?

• machine-learning

• $\begingroup$ have that this is not consistent with D because for the example 3 in D we have h(x)!=c(x). This can not be interpreted. Please clarify. $\endgroup$ –  Subhash C. Davar Commented Jul 18, 2020 at 9:12

I'm not especially familiar with this but from the example provided we can deduce that:

• An hypothesis is a partial assignment of values to the features. That is, by "applying the hypothesis" we obtain a subset of instances for which the features satisfy the hypothesis.
• An hypothesis is consistent with the data if the target variable (called "concept" apparently, here EnjoySport in the example) has the same value for any instance in the subset obtained by applying it.

First case: $h_1=<?,?,?,Strong,?,?>$ . All 4 instances in the data satisfy $h_1$ , so the subset satisfying $h_1$ is the whole data. However the concept EnjoySport can have two values for this subset, so $h_1$ is not consistent.

Second case: $h_2=<Sunny,Warm,?,Strong,?,?>$ . This hypothesis is more precise than $h_1$ : the subset of instances which satisfy $h_2$ is $\{1,2,4\}$ . The concept EnjoySport always have value Yes for every instance in this subset, so $h_2$ is consistent with the data.

Intuitively, the idea is that an hypothesis is consistent with the data if knowing the values specified by the hypothesis gives a 100% certainty about the value of the target variable.

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Integrating knowledge graph and machine learning methods for landslide susceptibility assessment.

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Wu, Q.; Xie, Z.; Tian, M.; Qiu, Q.; Chen, J.; Tao, L.; Zhao, Y. Integrating Knowledge Graph and Machine Learning Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment. Remote Sens. 2024 , 16 , 2399. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132399

Wu Q, Xie Z, Tian M, Qiu Q, Chen J, Tao L, Zhao Y. Integrating Knowledge Graph and Machine Learning Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment. Remote Sensing . 2024; 16(13):2399. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132399

Wu, Qirui, Zhong Xie, Miao Tian, Qinjun Qiu, Jianguo Chen, Liufeng Tao, and Yifan Zhao. 2024. "Integrating Knowledge Graph and Machine Learning Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment" Remote Sensing 16, no. 13: 2399. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132399

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