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HBR’s Most-Read Research Articles of 2022

  • Dagny Dukach

research article 2022

Insights on equity, leadership, and becoming your best self.

The new year is a great time to set ambitious goals. But alongside our plans for the future, it’s also helpful to acknowledge all the challenges we’ve faced — and the progress we’ve made — in the last 12 months. In this end-of-year roundup, we share key insights and trends from HBR’s most-read research articles of 2022, exploring topics from embracing a new identity to fostering equity in the workplace and beyond.

For many of us, the arrival of a new year can be equal parts inspiring and daunting. While the promise of a fresh start is often welcome, it’s also a reminder of all the challenges we faced in the last 12 months — and all those still awaiting us, that we have yet to overcome.

research article 2022

  • Dagny Dukach is a former associate editor at Harvard Business Review.

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December 20, 2022

The Biggest Health and Biology Breakthroughs of 2022

From reviving dead pig organs to measuring viruses in our poop, here are some of the most intriguing medical advances of the year

By Tanya Lewis

Healthcare working holding syringe in front of face

A healthcare worker administers COVID-19 booster shots at a vaccination clinic in April 2022 in San Rafael, California.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

It’s been a rough year, especially on the health beat. The COVID pandemic continued to bulldoze its way through the population, causing surges in cases and related deaths. Somewhat forgotten viruses such as mpox , flu and RSV reared their head unexpectedly. And the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a nearly 50-year-old right to reproductive freedom established by Roe v. Wade .

But it wasn’t all bad news in 2022. In fact, biology and medicine saw exciting advances across fields as diverse as epidemiology, human evolution and artificial intelligence. Here are some of the discoveries that gave us hope for humanity and the future of human health.

We Got Updated Versions of COVID Vaccines

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The development of COVID vaccines within a year of the discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the disease, is undoubtedly one of the greatest medical achievements in recent memory. Two of the most effective vaccines, developed using mRNA technology, were proved to significantly protect against severe disease and death from SARS-CoV-2. But the virus continued to evolve, and newer variants began to find a way around human immune defenses. Fortunately, vaccine manufacturers developed new shots to target both the Omicron variant and the original strain. Early data suggest these “bivalent” vaccines effectively boost protection against the virus—all the more reason to make sure everyone in your family is up-to-date with their shots.

Discoveries in Human Evolution Won a Nobel Prize

This year’s Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded to Svante Pääbo for his discoveries involving the genetic relationships among our hominin ancestors. Pääbo, a Swedish geneticist and director of the Department of Evolutionary Genetics at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, pioneered methods for reconstructing ancient DNA. He and his colleagues sequenced the genome of Neandertals and discovered a new hominin species, Denisovans. The research led to the surprising revelation that early humans interbred with these now extinct species. These primeval trysts gave us traits that persist in some people today, including an ability to survive at high altitude and a vulnerability to infections such as COVID.

Scientists Revived Dead Pigs’ Organs

In a feat that sounds like something out of the pages of Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein , a team of scientists at Yale University developed a perfusion system that restored vitality to pigs’ organs after the animals had died. The system—known as OrganEx—pumped a mixture of blood and nutrient-rich fluid through each animal’s circulatory system. (The animals didn’t regain consciousness.) The technology holds the potential to keep more human organs alive longer for transplants.

Researchers Found Secrets in Our Poop

It sounds gross, but human waste contains a cornucopia of useful information for infectious disease scientists. Wastewater tracking systems enabled researchers to spot COVID cases and new SARS-CoV-2 variants in regions before they caused surges. By monitoring sewage, scientists also detected the virus that causes polio —a disease that has been declared eradicated in much of the world—in sewage systems in New York State and the U.K. This type of monitoring could also reveal spikes in opioid use or in levels of antibiotic-resistant microbes, scientists say.

We Learned That Indoor Air Quality Matters

Before the COVID pandemic, most of us probably didn’t give much thought to the air we breathe indoors. Over the past few years, though, it’s become clear that SARS-CoV-2 frequently spreads through airborne droplets, which can build up inside indoor spaces and make us sick. Fortunately, we can reduce that risk by ventilating buildings and filtering the air we breathe . And cleaner indoor air has other benefits: it reduces the risk of respiratory diseases in general, and it may even help us think more clearly.

AI Solved One of the Biggest Problems in Biology

One of the hardest problems for biologists is predicting the three-dimensional structure of proteins from their amino acid sequence. But earlier this year an AI program built by the Google-owned company DeepMind, called AlphaFold, solved the 3-D structures of about 200 million proteins . These structures are already enabling scientists to unlock mysteries in biology, and they could help lead to new pharmaceutical drugs and more sustainable crops.

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Science News

These are the most popular  science news  stories of 2022.

photo of the remains of an Inca child bundled in a textile and wearing a ceremonial headdress

Previously excavated bodies of two ritually sacrificed Inca children, including this girl still wearing a ceremonial headdress, have yielded chemical clues to a beverage that may have been used to calm them in the days or weeks before being killed. The discovery ranked among Science News ' most-read stories of 2022.

Johan Reinhard

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By Science News Staff

December 22, 2022 at 7:00 am

Science News drew over 13 million visitors to our website this year. Here’s a recap of the most-read news stories and long reads of 2022.

Top news stories

1. a special brew may have calmed inca children headed for sacrifice.

The mummified remains of two Inca children ritually sacrificed more than 500 years ago contain chemical clues to their final days and weeks. On the journey to the Peruvian mountain where they were sacrificed, the children may have chewed coca leaves and drunk a beverage with antidepressant-like ingredients to soothe their nerves ( SN: 6/4/22, p. 10 ).

2. A ‘mystery monkey’ in Borneo may be a rare hybrid. That has scientists worried

An unusual monkey first spotted six years ago appears to be a cross between a female silvered leaf monkey ( Trachypithecus cristatus ) and a male proboscis monkey ( Nasalis larvatus ). The possible cross-genera pairing has scientists worried because such matings are usually a sign that species are facing ecological pressures ( SN: 6/18/22, p. 11 ).

3. What experts told me to do after my positive COVID-19 at-home test

After Science News intern Anna Gibbs came down with COVID-19, she turned to health experts to figure out how to report her case to public health officials and how long she needed to isolate ( SN Online: 4/22/22 ).

4. All of the bases in DNA and RNA have now been found in meteorites

Here’s more evidence that life’s precursors could have come from space. All five of the nucleobases that store information in DNA and RNA have been discovered in meteorites. This year, scientists reported detecting cytosine and thymine in fallen space rocks , completing the list ( SN: 6/4/22, p. 7 ).

5. Humans may not be able to handle as much heat as scientists thought

For years, it was thought the human body can tolerate heat up to a “wet bulb” temperature — a measure combining humidity and air temperature — of 35° Celsius (95° Fahrenheit). But experiments hint that the threshold may be several degrees lower ( SN: 8/27/22, p. 6 ).

Science News joins TikTok

TikTok became one more way we tell stories, as we premiered our first TikTok video — a tribute to the “bambootula” tarantula. Find out what makes this spider so peculiar and discover other amazing science tidbits @sciencenewsofficial .

@sciencenewsofficial This is the only known tarantula to call bamboo home. #spiders #tarantula #science #biology #sciencetok ♬ original sound – sciencenewsofficial

Top feature stories

1. tardigrades could teach us how to handle the rigors of space travel.

Tardigrades can withstand punishing levels of radiation, the freezing cold and the vacuum of outer space. Researchers are learning the death-defying tricks of these hardy microscopic animals to better prepare astronauts for long-term voyages ( SN: 7/16/22 & 7/30/22, p. 30 ).

2. Muons spill secrets about Earth’s hidden structures

Just like doctors use X-rays to see inside the human body, scientists are using muons , a type of subatomic particle, to peer inside Egyptian pyramids, volcanoes and other hard to penetrate structures ( SN: 4/23/22, p. 22 ). 

3. Multiple sclerosis has a common viral culprit, opening doors to new approaches

Evidence is mounting that Epstein-Barr virus somehow instigates multiple sclerosis. Understanding the link between the virus and MS may lead to better treatments for the neurological disorder. Vaccines against the virus may even prevent MS altogether ( SN: 8/13/22, p. 14 ).

4. The discovery of the Kuiper Belt revamped our view of the solar system

In 1992, two astronomers discovered a doughnut-shaped region far beyond Neptune, dubbed the Kuiper Belt, that’s home to a swarm of frozen objects left over from the solar system’s formation. By studying these far-off objects over the last 30 years, scientists have gained new insights into how planets form ( SN: 8/27/22, p. 22 ).

5. Clovis hunters’ reputation as mammoth killers takes a hit

Ancient Americans may have been big-game scavengers rather than big-game hunters. Some recent analyses suggest that Clovis stone points were more likely tools for butchering large carcasses than weapons for taking down mammoths and other large animals ( SN: 1/15/22, p. 22 ).

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The top 10 journal articles of 2022

APA’s 89 journals published more than 5,500 articles in 2022. Here are the top 10 most read

Vol. 54 No. 1 Print version: page 26

graphic representation of people choosing reaction emojis to social media posts

1. Like this meta-analysis: Screen media and mental health

Ferguson, C. J., et al.

This meta-analysis in Professional Psychology: Research and Practice (Vol. 53, No. 2) suggests that exposure to screen time, including smartphones and social media, is not linked to mental health issues in adults or children. Researchers analyzed 37 data sets from 33 separate studies published between 2015 and 2019. They found no evidence that screen media contributes to suicidal ideation or other negative mental health outcomes. This result was also true when specifically investigating the use of smartphones or social media, and it was not affected by participants’ age or ethnicity. DOI: 10.1037/pro0000426

2. Conceptual and design thinking for thematic analysis

Braun, V., & Clarke, V.

Thematic analysis (TA) is a method used in qualitative research to examine themes or patterns of meaning within a data set, with the goal of answering a specific research question. This paper in Qualitative Psychology (Vol. 9, No. 1) aims to bolster researchers’ conceptual and design thinking when using TA to produce more methodologically sound results. Useful guidance includes best practices on research questions, data collection, participant/data item selection strategy and criteria, ethics, and quality standards and practices. The authors also outline the three primary approaches to TA: coding reliability, codebook, and reflexive. The first two approaches involve sorting data into pre-identified themes, while in the third, coding precedes theme development, and themes are built from coded data. The article ends with guidance on reporting standards for reflexive TA. DOI: 10.1037/qup0000196

3. Doomscrolling during Covid -19: The negative association between daily social and traditional media consumption and mental health symptoms during the Covid -19 pandemic

Price, M., et al.

The Covid -19 pandemic triggered a remarkable rise in doomscrolling, the consumption of an excessive amount of negative news resulting in significant negative affect. This article in Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy (Vol. 14, No. 8) indicates that doomscrolling was associated with increased symptoms of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Researchers assessed the psychopathology of 61 participants in the United States and asked them to track depression and PTSD symptoms and pandemic-related media consumption over 30 days in spring 2020. They found that an increase in social media use (but not traditional media use) was associated with more depression and PTSD symptoms, particularly in participants with a history of childhood maltreatment. Additionally, participants with more severe baseline psychopathology consumed more social media during this period. DOI: 10.1037/tra0001202

4. A comparison of emotion-focused therapy and cognitive-behavioral therapy in the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder: Results of a feasibility randomized controlled trial

Timulak, L., et al.

This study in Psychotherapy (Vol. 59, No. 1) indicates that emotion-focused therapy (EFT) may be as effective as cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in treating generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Researchers randomly assigned 58 participants in Ireland with a GAD diagnosis to 16 to 20 sessions of either EFT or CBT, which were run by eight therapists trained in both therapies. The researchers assessed participants at baseline, week 16, the end of therapy, and 6 months after the end of therapy. Dropout from treatments was 10% for EFT and 27% for CBT. The two therapies showed large pre-to-post changes and similar outcomes across all measures, with the benefits of both lasting through the 6-month follow-up. Overall, the findings suggest that EFT is a potentially promising treatment for GAD, broadening the range of treatment choices available for this condition. DOI: 10.1037/pst0000427

5. Looking through a filtered lens: Negative social comparison on social media and suicidal ideation among young adults

Spitzer, E. G., et al.

This study in Psychology of Popular Media (online first publication) suggests that young adults who feel bad about themselves after comparing themselves with others on social networking sites such as Instagram and Facebook are more likely to contemplate suicide. Researchers surveyed 456 undergraduate students in the United States about their social media use as well as incidents of negative social comparison, suicidal ideation, and thwarted belongingness. They found an association between negative social comparison on social networking sites and suicidal ideation. Furthermore, on Instagram, the relationship between thwarted belongingness and suicidal ideation was stronger among those with high levels of negative social comparison. DOI: 10.1037/ppm0000380

6. Associations between young adults’ social media addiction, relationship quality with parents, and internalizing problems: A path analysis model

White-Gosselin, C.-É., & Poulin, F.

Young adults with social media addiction symptoms are more likely to be anxious and depressed and have worse relationships with their parents, indicates this study in the Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science (online first publication). Researchers asked 435 young adults in Canada with a median age of 19 to report their symptoms of anxiety, depression, and the quality of their relationships with their mothers and fathers (along the dimensions of conflict, satisfaction, and equality). The researchers found that the level of participants’ social media addiction was associated with high conflict, low satisfaction, and low equality with their fathers, and high conflict and low equality with their mothers. Furthermore, social media addiction was linked to symptoms of anxiety and depression. Finally, anxiety and depression exacerbated the negative impacts of social media addiction on conflict, satisfaction, and equality with participants’ mothers, as well as conflict and satisfaction with their fathers. DOI: 10.1037/cbs0000326

7. On the outside looking in: Social media intensity, social connection, and user well-being: The moderating role of passive social media use

Roberts, J. A., & David, M. E.

This study in the Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science (online first publication) suggests that intense social media use is sometimes linked with a weaker sense of social connection and well-being. In the first of three studies with 146 participants in the United States, researchers found that passive engagement (viewing social media but not regularly posting or interacting through the platform) was associated with less social connection and lower well-being. The second study with 80 participants revealed that the interaction between heavy social media use (across 11 social media platforms) and consistently passive use of these platforms was linked with lower perceived social connection and, subsequently, higher stress. In the third study, with 160 participants, the researchers manipulated the amount of social media use (heavy versus light) and type of social media use (passive versus active) and found that heavy social media use had a negative impact on social connection when used passively but a positive effect when used actively. DOI: 10.1037/cbs0000323

8. Effects of a statewide pre-kindergarten program on children’s achievement and behavior through sixth grade

Durkin, K., et al.

According to this study in Developmental Psychology (Vol. 58, No. 3) , children who attended a state-funded pre-K program were doing worse by the end of sixth grade than peers who did not attend a pre-K program. Researchers randomly assigned 2,990 children from low-income families who applied to pre-K program sites across Tennessee in 2009 and 2010 to an offer of admission or a waiting list control. State education records showed that at the end of their first year, the children who went to pre-K scored higher on school readiness. However, by third grade, the pre-K children had lower math and science test scores than the control group. Moreover, at the end of sixth grade, the pre-K children were doing even worse, with lower math, science, and reading scores. They also were more likely to be in special education and were more likely to be suspended for behavioral issues. DOI: 10.1037/dev0001301

9. The role of childhood traumas, interpersonal problems, and contrast avoidance model in development of the generalized anxiety disorder: A structural equation modeling

Shafiei, M., et al.

The contrast avoidance model supposes that people with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) unconsciously worry as a way to sustain a negative emotional state to avoid the discomfort that comes with shifting from positive or neutral states into a negative state. In this study in Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy (Vol. 14, No. 3) , researchers surveyed 457 participants in Iran with GAD and found that childhood trauma, interpersonal problems, and contrast avoidance of worry were all related to symptoms of GAD. Interpersonal problems and contrast avoidance of worry were able to directly predict symptoms of GAD. In addition, childhood trauma had an indirect effect on GAD by negatively influencing the relationship between interpersonal problems and contrast avoidance of worry. DOI: 10.1037/tra0001117

10. The continuing unfairness of death qualification: Changing death penalty attitudes and capital jury selection

Haney, C., et al.

To serve on a death penalty jury, potential jurors must declare under oath that they are willing to impose the death penalty. This study in Psychology, Public Policy, and Law (Vol. 28, No. 1) found numerous biases among such “death qualified” jurors. Researchers conducted in-depth surveys with a total of 1,792 representative individuals eligible for jury service in California, New Hampshire, and Florida. Despite differences in location, demographic makeup, and political ideology, the researchers observed very similar patterns of death-qualification bias. Specifically, they found that individuals whose death penalty attitudes qualified them to serve on a capital jury were more punitive overall, less well-informed about the processes involved in death sentencing, more willing to use aggravating factors to impose the death penalty, less willing to use mitigating factors to impose life in prison without the possibility of parole, and less racially diverse than people who would be unwilling to impose the death penalty. DOI: 10.1037/law0000335

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MIT’s top research stories of 2022

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The dizzying pace of research and innovation at MIT can make it hard to keep up. To mark the end of the year, MIT News is looking back at 10 of the research stories that generated the most excitement in 2022.

We’ve also rounded up the year’s  top MIT community-related stories .

  • Designing a heat engine with no moving parts . In April, engineers at MIT and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) designed a heat engine that might someday enable a fully decarbonized power grid. In demonstrations, the engine was able to convert heat to electricity with over 40 percent efficiency — a performance better than that of traditional steam turbines.
  • Creating a lightweight material stronger than steel . In February, MIT chemical engineers used a new polymerization process to form a material that that is stronger than steel and as light as plastic, and can be easily manufactured in large quantities. The material could be used as a coating for car parts or as a building material for bridges and other structures.
  • Enabling portable desalination at the push of a button . MIT researchers developed a suitcase-sized device that can remove particles and salts to generate drinking water. Unlike other desalination units that rely on filters, this device uses electrical power to purify the water. It requires less power to operate than a cell phone charger and can be driven by a small solar panel. Just push start.
  • Linking human genes to function . A team of researchers created the first map tying every gene expressed in human cells to its job in the cell. The map, which is available for other scientists to use, makes it easier to study a range of biological questions. The map was created using a CRISPR-based single-cell sequencing method known as Perturb-seq.
  • Improving supercomputing with a new programming language . A team of researchers based mainly at MIT invented a faster and more reliable programming language for high-performance computing. The language, which was tested on a number of small programs, could one day help computers with a number of deep learning tasks like image processing.
  • Lifting people out of extreme poverty . A study co-authored by an MIT economist showed that a one-time capital boost (in this case, a cow) helped poor people in rural Bangladesh improve their lives in the long run. The study suggests the very poor are in a poverty trap, in which an initial lack of resources prevents them from improving their circumstances, and implies that large asset transfers are an effective way to reduce global poverty.
  • Helping robots fly . Inspired by fireflies, MIT researchers created tiny actuators that emit light to allow insect-scale robots to communicate. Weighing barely more than a paper clip, the robots are too small to make use of traditional means of sensing and communication. Instead, the actuators that control the robots’ wings light up in different colors and patterns, which could enable them to do things like share their location and call for help.
  • Detecting a radio signal in a far-off galaxy . In July, astronomers at MIT and elsewhere were surprised to find a periodic fast radio burst (FRB) originating billions of light-years from Earth. It is the longest lasting FRB pattern detected to date and is made up of intensely strong radio waves that repeat every 0.2 seconds, similar to a heartbeat. Astronomers suspect the signal is coming from a neutron star.
  • Proposal for a new, low-cost battery design . Researchers at MIT developed a battery made from abundant, inexpensive materials to complement the rise of lithium-ion batteries. The new battery uses aluminum and sulfur as its two electrode materials and a molten salt electrolyte in between. It could be ideal for powering single homes or small to medium sized businesses, producing a few tens of kilowatt-hours of storage capacity.
  • Immigrants as job creators . A study co-authored by an MIT economist found that compared to native-born citizens, immigrants are about 80 percent more likely to found a firm. The study, which looked at registered businesses of all types across the country, suggests that immigrants act more as "job creators" than "job takers" and play outsized roles in high-growth entrepreneurship in the U.S.

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The 10 Most Popular Articles in 2022 (So Far)

Managers are seeking ways to improve employee well-being and build a strong workplace culture..

research article 2022

  • Workplace, Teams, & Culture
  • Talent Management
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Year three of a global pandemic. A war in Ukraine. Inflation in the U.S. at a 40-year high. Small talk around the watercooler (mainly the virtual one, nowadays) certainly feels heavier than it used to.

Recent Gallup data indicates that in 2022, companies and managers remain challenged by the task of raising employee engagement to pre-pandemic levels. Nearly half of global workers (44%) surveyed reported feeling “a lot” of stress in the previous day. The Great Resignation has demonstrated the power of employees to vote with their feet, and a resurgence of the labor movement in the U.S. has put pressure on even top-tier companies to improve working conditions.

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Companies that have thrived amid the pandemic and worker reshuffling have focused on worker well-being from the start. Unfortunately, for many employees across the globe, this may be the exception rather than the norm. As Gallup’s Jon Clifton put it, “Improving life at work isn’t rocket science, but the world is closer to colonizing Mars than it is to fixing the world’s broken workplaces.”

To begin to fix these issues, managers must focus on two areas in particular: leadership and culture. In the first months of the year, many MIT SMR readers turned their attention to articles focused on workplace culture, talent management, and employee retention.

With many companies now adopting permanent remote and hybrid work policies, other popular articles include data-driven approaches to managing well-being on virtual teams — from scheduling meeting-free days to creating systems for supporting mental health.

The following are the 10 most popular articles of the year so far. We hope they will continue to help managers who are looking to support employee engagement and build thriving workplaces.

#1 Toxic Culture Is Driving the Great Resignation

Donald sull, charles sull, and ben zweig.

In this article, the authors discuss the top five predictors of employee turnover uncovered by their analysis of attrition data during the Great Resignation and share four actions that managers can take in the short term to improve employee satisfaction.

#2 Top Performers Have a Superpower: Happiness

Paul b. lester, ed diener, and martin seligman.

Research has found that happiness, a sense of well-being, and an optimistic outlook are powerful predictors of how well an employee will perform. Managers who consciously promote employee well-being and take steps to eliminate toxic leadership in their business units will reap the benefits.

#3 The Surprising Impact of Meeting-Free Days

Ben laker, vijay pereira, pawan budhwar, and ashish malik.

Spending too much time in meetings can detract from effective collaboration, derail workers during their most productive hours, and interrupt people’s train of thought. No-meeting policies permit team members to excel without breaking their momentum, but specific plans must be tailored to each unique organizational context to maximize the benefits. The authors suggest several ways to deploy a no-meeting policy or adjust an existing one.

#4 Orchestrating Workforce Ecosystems

Elizabeth j. altman, david kiron, robin jones, and jeff schwartz.

Research conducted by MIT SMR and Deloitte examines the challenges companies and managers face in leading and coordinating workforces that increasingly rely on external contributors.

#5 Why Every Leader Needs to Worry About Toxic Culture

Donald sull, charles sull, william cipolli, and caio brighenti.

According to research, the five most common elements of toxic workplace cultures — being disrespectful, noninclusive, unethical, cutthroat, and abusive — contribute the most to employee attrition and can damage company reputation. Being aware of these elements and understanding how they spread can help employers prevent and address them.

#6 Building the Cognitive Budget for Your Most Effective Mind

Jordan birnbaum.

There’s a limit to how much mental energy is available to us on any given day, so it’s essential that we spend it deliberately and thoughtfully. This article details the process of creating a cognitive budget, using techniques from positive psychology, cognitive behavioral therapy, and behavioral economics.

#7 Stop Telling Employees to Be Resilient

Liz fosslien and mollie west duffy.

When it comes to leadership, there’s a difference between demanding that employees be mentally tough and actually helping them take care of their mental health. The authors suggest five actions leaders can take to create a workplace that supports employees and fosters resilience.

#8 Effective Leaders Decide About Deciding

Nancy duarte.

Categorizing decisions by riskiness and urgency helps clarify when employees should move autonomously and when they should pull leaders into decision-making.

Related Articles

#9 leading change means changing how you lead, b. tom hunsaker and jonathan knowles.

Adapting your leadership approach is necessary for achieving the change your organization requires. The authors discuss three tasks — drawing the map, establishing the mindset, and communicating the message — that are essential to becoming a contextually effective leader.

#10 How Well-Designed Work Makes Us Smarter

Sharon k. parker and gwenith g. fisher.

Work that permits autonomy and demands problem-solving can bolster employees’ cognitive skills and ongoing learning. This article looks at how organizations and managers can use good work design to strengthen their workforce’s ability to adapt to new processes, tools, and roles.

About the Author

Ally MacDonald ( @allymacdonald ) is senior editor at MIT Sloan Management Review .

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10 trending open access articles 2022

Popular open access articles lead discussion on global topics.

Publishing open access (OA) means your research is free to read anywhere, anytime, and without barriers.

Below we explore some of the most popular open access articles published in 2022 by Taylor & Francis. With topics spanning COVID-19 treatments, artificial intelligence, and mental health – it’s clear to see that open access means wider discussion and impact for research.

1. Sex differences in sequelae from COVID-19 infection and in long COVID syndrome: a review

Shirley V. Sylvester, Rada Rusu, Biankha Chan, Martha Bellows, Carly O’Keefe & Susan Nicholson

Published in  Current Medical Research and Opinion

“Social media is a salient source for influencing consumers’ shopping and buying behaviors as they share product reviews, service experiences, and/or product usage tips. […] the findings illustrate the impact that social media can have on consumer decision-making processes.”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 49,760'

2. Structural and pragmatic language in young children with sex chromosome trisomy (XXX, XXY, XYY): predictive value for neurobehavioral problems one year later

Evelien Urbanus, Hanna Swaab, Nicole Tartaglia, Constance Stumpel & Sophie van Rijn

Published in The Clinical Neuropsychologist

“This study is one of the first studies that directly illustrates the relationship between language and behavioral outcomes in children with SCT. Our results stress the importance to closely monitor pragmatic language in addition to structural language in clinical care of children with SCT, as pragmatic language abilities could serve as an early marker for children at risk for developing behavioral problems.”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 22,987'

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Related posts, insights topics, 3. probiotic improves symptomatic and viral clearance in covid19 outpatients: a randomized, quadruple-blinded, placebo-controlled trial.

Pedro Gutiérrez-Castrellón, Tania Gandara-Martí, Ana T. Abreu Y Abreu, Cesar D. Nieto-Rufino, Eduardo López-Orduña, Irma Jiménez-Escobar, Carlos Jiménez-Gutiérrez, Gabriel López-Velazquez & Jordi Espadaler-Mazo

Published in Gut Microbes

“Intestinal bacteria may influence lung homeostasis via the gut-lung axis. We conducted a single-center, quadruple-blinded, randomized trial in adult symptomatic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid19) outpatients.”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 22,764'

4. Efficacy and safety of three new oral antiviral treatment (molnupiravir, fluvoxamine and Paxlovid) for COVID-19:a meta

Wen Wen, Chen Chen, Jiake Tang, Chunyi Wang, Mengyun Zhou, Yongran Cheng, Xiang Zhou, Qi Wu, Xingwei Zhang, Zhanhui Feng, Mingwei Wang & Qin Mao

Published in Annals of Medicine

“The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic has not been completely controlled. Although great achievements have been made in COVID-19 research and many antiviral drugs have shown good therapeutic effects against COVID-19, a simple oral antiviral drug for COVID-19 has not yet been developed. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the improvement in mortality or hospitalization rates and adverse events among COVID-19 patients with three new oral antivirals (including molnupiravir, fluvoxamine and Paxlovid).”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 19,320'

5. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant shows less efficient replication and fusion activity when compared with Delta variant in TMPRSS2-expressed cells  

Hanjun Zhao, Lu Lu, Zheng Peng, Lin-Lei Chen, Xinjin Meng, Chuyuan Zhang, Jonathan Daniel Ip, Wan-Mui Chan, Allen Wing-Ho Chu, Kwok-Hung Chan, Dong-Yan Jin, Honglin Chen, Kwok-Yung Yuen & Kelvin Kai-Wang To

Published in Emerging Microbes & Infections

“The novel SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), first found in early November 2021, has sparked considerable global concern and it has >50 mutations, many of which are known to affect transmissibility or cause immune escape. In this study, we sought to investigate the virological characteristics of the Omicron variant and compared it with the Delta variant which has dominated the world since mid-2021.”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 18,591'

6. Antibodies to watch in 2022

Hélène Kaplon, Alicia Chenoweth, Silvia Crescioli & Janice M. Reichert

Published in mAbs

“In this 13th annual installment of the annual ‘Antibodies to Watch’ article series, we discuss key events in commercial antibody therapeutics development that occurred in 2021 and forecast events that might occur in 2022.” 

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 18,271'

7. Lessons learned from the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong in early 2022 

Pak-Hin Hinson Cheung, Chi-Ping Chan & Dong-Yan Jin

“Before the fifth wave, Hong Kong had managed to remain free of local cases of COVID-19 for almost 100 days, ascribed to the enforcement of moderate non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and stringent border control measures, just to be balanced with relatively normal economic activities and social lives. […] From 31 December 2021 to 23 March 2022, the ongoing fifth wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong has claimed 6356 lives.”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 16,705'

8. Omicron variant showed lower neutralizing sensitivity than other SARS-CoV-2 variants to immune sera elicited by vaccines after boost  

Jingwen Ai, Haocheng Zhang, Yi Zhang, Ke Lin, Yanliang Zhang, Jing Wu, Yanming Wan, Yanfang Huang, Jieyu Song, Zhangfan Fu, Hongyu Wang, Jingxin Guo, Ning Jiang, Mingxiang Fan, Yang Zhou, Yuanhan Zhao, Qiran Zhang, Qiang Liu, Jing Lv, Peiyao Li, Chao Qiu & Wenhong Zhang

“In this study, we explored the immunogenicity of COVID-19 breakthrough patients, BBIBP-CorV homologous booster group and BBIBP-CorV/ZF2001 heterologous booster group against SARS-CoV-2 pseudotypes corresponding to the prototype, Beta, Delta, and the emergent Omicron variant.”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 12,298'

9. A Research Ethics Framework for the Clinical Translation of Healthcare Machine Learning  

Melissa D McCradden, James A Anderson, Elizabeth A. Stephenson, Erik Drysdale, Lauren Erdman, Anna Goldenberg & Randi Zlotnik Shaul

Published in The American Journal of Bioethics

“The application of artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) technologies in healthcare have immense potential to improve the care of patients. While there are some emerging practices surrounding responsible ML as well as regulatory frameworks, the traditional role of research ethics oversight has been relatively unexplored regarding its relevance for clinical ML.”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 12,104'

10. Clinician guidelines for the treatment of psychiatric disorders with nutraceuticals and phytoceuticals: The World Federation of Societies of Biological Psychiatry (WFSBP) and Canadian Network for Mood and Anxiety Treatments (CANMAT) Taskforce 

Jerome Sarris, Arun Ravindran, Lakshmi N. Yatham, Wolfgang Marx, Julia J. Rucklidge, Roger S. McIntyre, Shahin Akhondzadeh, Francesco Benedetti, Constanza Caneo, Holger Cramer, Lachlan Cribb, Michael de Manincor, Olivia Dean, Andrea Camaz Deslandes, Marlene P. Freeman, Bangalore Gangadhar, Brian H. Harvey, Siegfried Kasper, James Lake, Adrian Lopresti, Lin Lu, Najwa-Joelle Metri, David Mischoulon, Chee H. Ng, Daisuke Nishi, Roja Rahimi, Soraya Seedat, Justin Sinclair, Kuan-Pin Su, Zhang-Jin Zhang & Michael Berk

Published in The World Journal of Biological Psychiatry

“The therapeutic use of nutrient-based ‘nutraceuticals’ and plant-based ‘phytoceuticals’ for the treatment of mental disorders is common; however, despite recent research progress, there have not been any updated global clinical guidelines since 2015. To address this, the World Federation of Societies of Biological Psychiatry (WFSBP) and the Canadian Network for Mood and Anxiety Disorders (CANMAT) convened an international taskforce involving 31 leading academics and clinicians from 15 countries, between 2019 and 2021.”

Chart image with the text 'Downloads in 2022: 11,831'

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The 10 Most Significant Education Studies of 2022

In our annual ritual, we pored over hundreds of educational studies and pulled out the most impactful—from a new study on the sneaky power of sketchnotes to research that linked relationships and rigor.

This past year didn’t feel normal, exactly, but compared with the last few trips around the sun, well—it sufficed. In 2021, when we sat down to write our annual edition of the research highlights, we were in the throes of postpandemic recovery and wrote about the impact of a grueling year in which burnout and issues of mental and physical health affected educators everywhere.

This year, we crossed our fingers and turned to best practices once again, reviewing hundreds of studies to identify the most impactful and insightful educational strategies we could find.

What turned up?

We found evidence that sheds new light on the misunderstood power of brain breaks, took a close look at research that finds a surprising—even counterintuitive—rationale for teachers to focus on relationships, and located both the humor and the merit in asking kids to slither like a snake as they learn about the “sss” sound of the letter S .

All that, and a lot more too, in our once-a-year roundup that follows.

1. There’s No Conflict Between Relationships and Rigor

Observers sometimes assume that teachers who radiate empathy, kindness, and openness are “soft” and can be taken advantage of by students. But new research shows that when you signal that you care about kids, they’re willing to go the extra mile, giving you the flexibility to assign more challenging school work.

That’s the main takeaway from a 2022 study that examined teaching practices in 285 districts, comparing relationship-building strategies with the flexibility that teachers had in assigning challenging and complex work. The researchers found that the most effective teachers build their classrooms by getting to know their students, being approachable, and showing that they enjoy the work—and then deftly translate emotional capital into academic capital.

“When students feel teachers care about them, they work harder, engage in more challenging academic activities, behave more appropriately for the school environment, are genuinely happy to see their teacher, and meet or exceed their teacher’s expectations,” the researchers conclude.

2. Highlighting Isn’t Very Effective Until Teachers Step In

Students often highlight the wrong information and may rely on their deficient highlighting skills as a primary study strategy, leading to poor learning outcomes, a new analysis of 36 studies suggests. As little as two hours of tutoring, however, can dramatically improve their capabilities.

The researchers determined that “learner-generated highlighting” tended to improve retention of material, but not comprehension. When students were taught proper highlighting techniques by teachers, however—for example, how to distinguish main ideas from supporting ideas—they dramatically improved their academic performance. Crucially, “when highlighting is used in conjunction with another learning strategy” like “graphic organizers or post-questions,” its effectiveness soars, the researchers said.

The need for explicit teaching may be linked to changing reading habits as students graduate from stories and fables to expository texts, which require them to navigate unfamiliar text formats, the researchers note. To bring kids up to speed, show them “examples of appropriate and inappropriate highlighting,” teach them to “highlight content relatively sparingly,” and provide examples of follow-on tactics like summarizing their insights to drive deeper comprehension.

3. A Landmark Study Strikes a Resounding Note for Inclusion

When the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act called for greater inclusion—mandating that students with disabilities receive support in the “least restrictive environment”—one goal was to ensure that educational accommodations didn’t interfere with the students’ social and emotional development in classrooms full of their peers. The law also confronted age-old prejudices and established a binding legal obligation in favor of inclusion.

But thus far, rigorous evidence of the academic benefits has been thin.

Now a new large-scale study appears to put the matter beyond dispute. When researchers tracked nearly 24,000 adolescents who qualified for special education, they discovered that spending a majority of the day—at least 80 percent—in general education classes improved reading scores by a whopping 24 points and math scores by 18 points, compared with scores of their more isolated peers with similar disabilities.

“Treat the general education classroom as the default classroom,” the researchers firmly state, and push for separate accommodations only when all other options have been exhausted.

4. Sketchnotes and Concept Maps Work—Even Better Than You Might Think

Simple concept maps, sketchnotes, and other annotated jottings—akin to doodling with a purpose—can facilitate deeper comprehension of materials than more polished drawings, a new study finds.

Representational drawings, such as a simple diagram of a cell, may help students remember factual information, the researchers explain, but they “lack features to make generalizations or inferences based on that information.” Organizational drawings that link concepts with arrows, annotations, and other relational markings give students a clearer sense of the big picture, allow them to visualize how ideas are connected, and provide a method for spotting obvious gaps in their understanding. On tests of higher-order thinking, fifth graders who made organizational drawings outperformed their peers who tried representational drawings by 300 percent.

To reap the benefits in class, have students start with simple diagrams to help remember the material, and then move them up to sketchnotes and concept maps as they tease out connections to prior knowledge.

5. Brain Breaks Are Misunderstood (and Underutilized)

Conventional wisdom holds that the development of a skill comes from active, repeated practice: It’s the act of dribbling a basketball that ultimately teaches the basketball star.

But recent studies reveal that the intervals between practice sessions are at least as crucial. In 2021, researchers used brain scans to observe neural networks as young adults learned how to type. During breaks, the brains of the participants appeared to head back to the keyboards, unconsciously replaying the typing sequences over and over again at high rates of speed as they flipped the material between processing and memory centers dozens of times in the span of 10 seconds. The researchers concluded that brain breaks play “just as important a role as practice in learning a new skill.”

In 2022, we learned that the kinds of breaks make a difference, too. One study compared in-classroom breaks like drawing or building puzzles with outdoor breaks like running or playing in sandboxes. In a nod to the power of movement—and free time—it was the kids playing outside who returned to class ready to learn, probably because indoor games, like indoor voices, required children to engage in more self-regulation, the researchers speculated. Meanwhile, an analysis examining “green breaks” —brief strolls in a park or visits to a school garden—concluded that students who partook in the activities performed better on tests of attention and working memory.

Depriving kids of regular breaks, it turns out, is a threat to the whole proposition of learning. To commit lessons to memory, the brain demands its own time—which it sets aside to clean up and consolidate new material.

6. On Classroom Design, an Argument for Caution—and Common Sense

When it comes time to decorate their classrooms, teachers often find themselves on the horns of a dilemma: Should they aim for Pinterest-worthy interior design or opt for blank walls on the strength of research that emphasizes the risks of distracting students?

A study published in February this year argues for minimalism. Researchers tracked the on-task behavior of K–2 students and concluded that visually ”streamlined” classrooms produced more focused students than “decorated” ones. During short read-alouds about topics like rainbows and plate tectonics, for example, young kids in classrooms free of “charts, posters, and manipulatives” were paying attention at significantly higher rates.

But it might not be a simple question of more or less. A 2014 study confirmed that posters of women scientists or diverse historical figures, for example, can improve students’ sense of belonging. And a recent study that observed 3,766 children in 153 schools concluded that classrooms that occupied a visual middle ground—neither too cluttered nor too austere—produced the best academic outcomes. A 2022 study reached similar conclusions.

Classroom decoration can alter academic trajectories, the research suggests, but the task shouldn’t stress teachers out. The rules appear to be relatively straightforward: Hang academically relevant, supportive work on the walls, and avoid the extremes—working within the broad constraints suggested by common sense and moderation.

7. For Young Children, the Power of Play-Based Learning

Children aren’t miniature adults, but a bias toward adult perspectives of childhood, with its attendant schedules and routines, has gradually exerted a stranglehold on our educational system nonetheless, suggests the author and early childhood educator Erika Christakis.

How can we let little kids be little while meeting the academic expectations of typical schools? A new analysis of 39 studies spanning several decades plots a middle path for educators, highlighting the way that play gently guided by adults, often called play-based learning, can satisfy both objectives.

Teachers of young students can have a “learning goal” in mind, but true play-based learning should incorporate wonder and exploration, be child-led when possible, and give students “freedom and choice over their actions and play behavior,” the researchers assert. Interrupt the flow of learning only when necessary: gently nudge students who might find activities too hard or too easy, for example. The playful approach improved early math and task-switching skills, compared with more traditional tactics that emphasize the explicit acquisition of skills, researchers concluded.

To get the pedagogy right, focus on relationships and ask questions that prompt wonder. “Rich, open-ended conversation is critical,” Christakis told Edutopia in a 2019 interview —children need time "to converse with each other playfully, to tell a rambling story to an adult, to listen to high-quality literature and ask meaningful questions.”

8. A Better Way to Learn Your ABCs

Getting young kids to match a letter to its corresponding sound is a first-order reading skill. To help students grasp that the letter c makes the plosive “cuh” sound in car , teachers often use pictures as scaffolds or have children write the letter repeatedly while making its sound.

A new study suggests that sound-letter pairs are learned much more effectively when whole-body movements are integrated into lessons. Five- and 6-year-olds in the study spent eight weeks practicing movements for each letter of the alphabet, slithering like a snake as they hissed the sibilant “sss” sound, for example. The researchers found that whole-body movement improved students’ ability to recall letter-sound pairings and doubled their ability to recognize hard-to-learn sounds—such as the difference between the sounds that c makes in cat and sauce —when compared with students who simply wrote and spoke letter-sound pairings at their desks.

The approach can make a big difference in the acquisition of a life-changing skill. Educators should “incorporate movement-based teaching” into their curricula, giving special consideration to “whole-body movement,” the researchers conclude.

9. Why Learners Push the Pause Button

Some of the benefits of videotaped lessons are so self-evident that they hide in plain sight.

When teaching students foundational concepts, a video lesson equipped with a simple pause button, for example, may allow students to reset cognitively as they reach their attentional limits, a 2022 study concluded. Pause buttons, like rewind buttons, are also crucial for learners who encounter “complex learning materials,” have “low prior knowledge,” or exhibit “low working memory capacities.”

Increasingly, the intrinsic value of targeted video lessons is borne out in research. In a feature on Edutopia , we looked at research suggesting that video learning supported self-pacing and flexible, 24/7 access to lessons; that questions embedded in videos improved academic performance, increased note-taking, and reduced stress (see these 2015 and 2020 studies); and that video versions of lectures tended to “make content more coherent ” to students.

To modernize their classrooms, teachers might record their most important lessons and make them available to students as study aids so they can pause, rewind, and review to their hearts’ content.

10. An Authoritative Study of Two High-Impact Learning Strategies

Spacing and retrieval practices are two of the most effective ways to drive long-term retention, confirms an authoritative 2022 review spanning hundreds of studies on the topic—and students should know how and why the strategies are effective.

In the review, researchers explain that students who prefer techniques like reading and rereading material in intense cram sessions are bound to fail. Instead, students should think of learning as a kind of “fitness routine” during which they practice recalling the material from memory and space out their learning sessions over time. Teaching kids to self-quiz or summarize from memory—and then try it again—is the crucial first step in disabusing students of their “false beliefs about learning.”

The effect sizes are hard to ignore. In a 2015 study , for example, third-grade students who studied a lesson about the sun and then reread the same material scored 53 percent on a follow-up test, the equivalent of a failing grade, while their peers who studied it once and then answered practice questions breezed by with an 87 percent score. And in a 2021 study , middle school students who solved a dozen math problems spread out across three weeks scored 21 percentage points higher on a follow-up math test than students who solved all 12 problems on the same day.

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Striking findings from 2022

research article 2022

Pew Research Center’s surveys have shed light on public opinion around some of the biggest news events of 2022 – from Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine to the overturning of Roe v. Wade to Americans’ experiences with extreme weather events . Here’s a look back at the past year through 15 of our most striking research findings, which cover these topics and more. These findings represent just a sample of the Center’s research publications this year .

Today, roughly four-in-ten Americans (41%) say none of their purchases in a typical week are paid for using cash , a July survey found. This is up from 29% in 2018 and 24% in 2015.

A bar chart showing that Americans have become more likely to say they don’t use cash for purchases in a typical week. 41% say this, up from 29% in 2018 and 24% in 2015.

Meanwhile, the portion of Americans who say that all or almost all of their purchases are paid for with cash in a typical week has declined from 24% in 2015 to 18% in 2018 to 14% today.

While growing shares of Americans across income groups are relying less on cash than in the past, this is especially the case among the highest earners. Roughly six-in-ten adults whose annual household income is $100,000 or more (59%) say they make none of their typical weekly purchases using cash, up sharply from 43% in 2018 and 36% in 2015.

If recent trends continue, Christians could make up a minority of Americans by 2070. That’s according to a September report that models several hypothetical scenarios of how the U.S. religious landscape might change over the next 50 years, based on religious switching patterns.

Since the 1990s, large numbers of Americans have left Christianity to join the growing ranks of U.S. adults who describe their religious identity as atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular.”

Depending on whether religious switching continues at recent rates, speeds up or stops entirely – the last of which is not plausible because it assumes all switching has already ended – the projections show Christians of all ages shrinking from 64% to somewhere between 54% and 35% of all Americans by 2070. Over that same period, “nones” would rise from their current 30% of the population to somewhere between 34% and 52%.

A line graph showing that U.S. Christians are projected to fall below 50% of the population if recent trends continue

Views of reparations for slavery vary widely by race and ethnicity , especially between Black and White Americans, a November analysis found. Overall, 30% of U.S. adults say descendants of people enslaved in the United States should be repaid in some way, such as given land or money. About seven-in-ten (68%) say these descendants should not be repaid.

A bar chart showing that 77% of Black Americans – compared with 18% of White Americans – support reparations for descendants of enslaved people

Around three-quarters of Black adults (77%) say the descendants of people enslaved in the U.S. should be repaid in some way. Just 18% of White adults hold this view.

There are also notable differences by party affiliation and age. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, views are split: 48% say descendants of enslaved people should be repaid in some way, while 49% say they should not. Only 8% of Republicans and GOP leaners say these descendants should be repaid in some way, and 91% say they should not.

And 45% of adults under 30 say these descendants should be repaid, compared with 18% of those 65 and older.

Notably, three-quarters of adults who say descendants of those enslaved in the U.S. should be repaid (including 82% of Black adults who say this) say it’s a little or not at all likely this will happen in their lifetime.

A growing share of adult TikTok users in the U.S. are getting news on the platform , bucking the trend on other social media sites, according to a survey fielded in July and August. A third of adults who use TikTok say they regularly get news there, up from 22% two years ago. The increase comes even as news consumption on many other social media sites has either decreased or stayed about the same in recent years. For example, the share of adult Facebook users who regularly get news there has declined from 54% in 2020 to 44% this year.

A line graph showing that a growing share of TikTok’s adult users say they regularly get news on the site. 33% say this, up from 29% in 2021 and 22% in 2020.

Most Americans who have experienced extreme weather in the past year – including majorities in both political parties – see climate change as a factor, according to a May survey .

A bar chart showing that in both parties, six-in-ten or more who faced certain weather events say climate change played a role

Overall, 71% of Americans said that, in the past 12 months, their community had experienced at least one of the five forms of extreme weather the Center’s survey asked about. Among those who had recently encountered extreme weather, more than eight-in-ten said climate change contributed at least a little to each type of event.

Among Democrats as well as Republicans, majorities of those who had experienced one of these forms of extreme weather said climate change contributed to the event. But Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say climate change contributed  a lot .

A line graph showing that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Americans are much more likely to consider Russia an enemy. 70% of Americans say this, up from 41% in January

Following Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, Americans became much more likely to see Russia as an enemy of the United States . In March, just after the invasion, 70% of Americans said that, on balance, Russia is an enemy of the U.S., up sharply from 41% who held this view in January. In the January survey, Americans were more likely to describe Russia as a competitor of the U.S. than as an enemy. In both surveys, very few Americans described Russia as a U.S. partner.

Democrats and Republicans largely agreed in the March survey that Russia is an enemy of the U.S., but partisan and ideological differences still existed. Liberal Democrats, for example, were the most likely to see Russia as an enemy (78%), while moderate and liberal Republicans were the least likely to do so (63%).

Relatively few Americans take an absolutist view on the legality of abortion – either supporting or opposing it at all times, according to a survey conducted in March, before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. The vast majority of the public is somewhere in the middle when it comes to abortion : Most think it should be legal in at least some circumstances, but most are also open to limitations on its availability in others.

A pie chart showing that a 61% majority of adults say abortion should be legal in some cases and illegal in others

Overall, 19% of Americans say that abortion should be legal in all cases, with no exceptions. Fewer (8%) say abortion should be illegal in every case, without exception. But 71% either say it should be mostly legal or mostly illegal, or say there are exceptions to their blanket support for or opposition to legal abortion.

A separate survey conducted in June and July – after the Supreme Court struck down Roe – found that 57% of adults disapproved of the decision, including 43% who strongly disapproved. About four-in-ten (41%) approved, including 25% who strongly approved. 

A line graph showing that the partisan gap in views of the Supreme Court is now wider than at any point in more than three decades. 73% of Republicans have a favorable view; 28% of Democrats do.

Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the partisan gap in views of the court grew wider than at any point in more than three decades. While 73% of Republicans expressed a favorable view of the court in an August survey, only 28% of Democrats shared that view. That 45-point gap was wider than at any point in 35 years of polling on the court.

The current polarization follows a term that included the ruling on abortion and  several other high-profile cases  that often split the justices along ideological lines.

Growing shares of Democrats also say the Supreme Court has a conservative tilt: 67% said this in August, up from 57% in January. And about half of Democrats (51%) said in August that the justices on the court are doing a poor job of keeping their own political views out of their judgments on major cases, nearly double the share who said this in January (26%).

A bar chart showing that in the U.S., young adults are the most likely to be transgender or nonbinary; 5% say this

About 5% of Americans younger than 30 are transgender or nonbinary – that is, their gender is different from their sex assigned at birth, according to a survey conducted in May. By comparison, 1.6% of those ages 30 to 49 and 0.3% of those 50 and older say that their gender is different from their sex assigned at birth. Overall, 1.6% of U.S. adults are transgender or nonbinary – that is, someone who is neither a man nor a woman or isn’t strictly one or the other.

While a relatively small share of U.S. adults are transgender or nonbinary, many say they know someone who is. More than four-in-ten (44%) say they personally know someone who is trans and 20% know someone who is nonbinary. The share of adults who know someone who is transgender  has increased  from 42% in 2021 and from 37% in 2017.

In focus groups with trans and nonbinary adults, most participants said they knew from an early age – many as young as preschool or elementary school – that there was something different about them, even if they didn’t have the words to describe what it was.

Most Americans say journalists should always strive to give every side equal coverage , but journalists themselves are more likely to say every side does not always deserve equal coverage, according to two separate surveys conducted in late winter amid debate over “ bothsidesism ” in the media.

A bar chart showing that U.S. journalists are more likely than the public to say all sides don’t always deserve equal coverage. 76% of U.S. adults say this; 44% of journalists do.

Among Americans overall, 76% say journalists should always strive to give all sides equal coverage, while 22% say every side does not always deserve equal coverage. The balance of opinion is reversed among journalists themselves: A little more than half (55%) say every side does not always deserve equal coverage, while 44% say journalists should always strive to give every side equal coverage.

This issue gained  new intensity  during Donald Trump’s presidency and the  widespread disinformation and competing views  surrounding the 2020 election and the COVID-19 pandemic. Those who favor  equal coverage argue that it’s always necessary to allow the public to be equally informed about multiple sides of an argument, while those who disagree contend that people making false statements or unsupported conjectures do not warrant as much attention as those making factual statements with solid supporting evidence.

A recent surge in U.S. drug overdose deaths has hit Black men the hardest, a January analysis found. While overdose death rates have increased in every major demographic group in recent years, no group has seen a bigger increase than Black men. As a result, Black men have overtaken White men and are now on par with American Indian or Alaska Native men as the demographic groups most likely to die from overdoses.

A line graph showing that the drug overdose death rate among Black men in the U.S. more than tripled between 2015 and 2020 from 17.3 per 100,000 to 54.1

Nearly 92,000 Americans died of drug overdoses in 2020, up from around 70,000 in 2017. During the same period, the  rate  of fatal overdoses rose from 21.7 to 28.3 per 100,000 people.

Despite these increases, the share of Americans who say drug addiction is a major problem in their local community  declined by 7 percentage points  in subsequent surveys – from 42% in 2018 to 35% in 2021. And in a  separate survey  in early 2022, dealing with drug addiction ranked lowest out of 18 priorities for the president and Congress to address this year.

Nearly half of U.S. teens now say they use the internet “almost constantly,” according to a survey conducted in April and May. This percentage has roughly doubled since 2014-15, when 24% said they were almost constantly online.

A bar chart showing that nearly half of teens (46%) now say they use the internet ‘almost constantly’

Black and Hispanic teens stand out for being on the internet more frequently than White teens. Some 56% of Black teens and 55% of Hispanic teens say they are online almost constantly, compared with 37% of White teens. (There were not enough Asian American teens in the sample to analyze separately.)

Older teens are also more likely to be online almost constantly. About half of 15- to 17-year-olds (52%) say they use the internet almost constantly, while 36% of 13- to 14-year-olds say the same. And 53% of urban teens report doing this, compared with somewhat smaller shares of suburban and rural teens (44% and 43%, respectively).

Since 2014-15, there has been a 22-point rise in the share of teens who report having access to a smartphone (from 73% then to 95% now). While teens’ access to smartphones has increased, their access to other digital technologies, such as desktop or laptop computers or gaming consoles, has remained statistically unchanged.

The share of aggregate U.S. household income held by the middle class has fallen steadily since 1970, according to an analysis published in April.

A line graph showing that the share of aggregate income held by the U.S. middle class has plunged since 1970, from 62% to 42%

In 1970, adults in middle-income households accounted for 62% of aggregate income, a share that fell to 42% by 2020. Meanwhile, the share of aggregate income held by upper-income households has increased steadily, from 29% in 1970 to 50% in 2020. Part of this increase reflects the rising share of adults who are in the upper-income tier; another part reflects more rapid growth in earnings for these adults.

The share of U.S. aggregate income held by lower-income households edged down from 10% to 8% over these five decades, even though the proportion of adults living in lower-income households increased over this period.

Growing shares of both Republicans and Democrats say that members of the other party are more immoral, dishonest and closed-minded than other Americans, according to a survey conducted in June and July.

A line graph showing that growing shares of both Republicans and Democrats say members of the other party are more immoral, dishonest, and closed-minded than other Americans

The percentage of Americans who view the people in the opposing political party in a negative light has increased in recent years. In 2016, 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats said those in the other party were a lot or somewhat more immoral than other Americans. Today, 72% of Republicans regard Democrats as more immoral than other Americans, and 63% of Democrats say the same about Republicans. Similar patterns exist when it comes to seeing members of the other party as more dishonest, closed-minded and unintelligent than other Americans.

There is one negative trait that Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to link to their political opponents. A 62% majority of Republicans say Democrats are “more lazy” than other Americans, up from 46% in both  2019  and  2016 .

A bar chart showing that social media is generally seen as good thing for democracy – but not in the U.S. A median of 57% in 19 countries say this, while 34% of U.S. adults do.

Majorities in nations around the world generally see social media as a good thing for democracy – but not in the United States, a survey of people in 19 advanced economies found.

Americans are the most negative about the impact of social media on democracy: 64% say it has been bad. Republicans are much more likely than Democrats (74% vs. 57%) to see the ill effects of social media on the political system.

In addition to being the most negative about social media’s influence on democracy, Americans are consistently among the most negative in their assessments of specific ways that social media has affected politics and society. For example, 79% in the U.S. believe access to the internet and social media has made people more divided in their political opinions, the highest percentage among the countries polled.

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ROLAND GRAD, MD, MSc, AND MARK H. EBELL, MD, MS

Am Fam Physician. 2023;107(4):406-414

Author disclosure: Dr. Ebell is cofounder and editor-in-chief of Essential Evidence Plus; see Editor's Note . Dr. Grad has no relevant financial relationships.

This article summarizes the top 20 research studies of 2022 identified as POEMs (patient-oriented evidence that matters), excluding COVID-19. Statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease produce only a small absolute reduction in a person's likelihood of dying (0.6%), having a myocardial infarction (0.7%), or having a stroke (0.3%) over three to six years. Supplemental vitamin D does not reduce the risk of a fragility fracture, even in people with low baseline vitamin D levels or a previous fracture. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors are preferred medical therapy for panic disorder, and patients who discontinue antidepressants are more likely to relapse (number needed to harm = 6) compared with those who continue. Combination therapy using a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, or tricyclic antidepressant with mirtazapine or trazodone is more effective than monotherapy for first-line treatment of acute severe depression and when monotherapy fails. Using hypnotic agents for insomnia in adults comes with a significant trade-off between effectiveness and tolerability. In patients with moderate to severe asthma, using a combination of albuterol and glucocorticoid inhalers as rescue therapy reduces exacerbations and need for systemic steroids. Observational research shows an increased risk of gastric cancer in patients taking proton pump inhibitors (number needed to harm = 1,191 over 10 years). The American College of Gastroenterology updated its guideline for gastroesophageal reflux disease, and a new guideline provides sound advice for the evaluation and management of irritable bowel syndrome. Adults older than 60 years with prediabetes are more likely to become normoglycemic than to develop diabetes mellitus or die. Treatment of prediabetes via intensive lifestyle intervention or metformin has no impact on long-term cardiovascular outcomes. Persons with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy have similar degrees of improvement with monotherapy using amitriptyline, duloxetine, or pregabalin and greater improvement with combination therapy. When communicating with patients about disease risk, most patients prefer numbers over words because people overestimate word-based probabilities. In terms of drug therapy, the duration of an initial varenicline prescription should be 12 weeks. Many drugs can interact with cannabidiol. No important difference was found among ibuprofen, ketorolac, and diclofenac for treatment of acute nonradicular low back pain in adults.

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Shaughnessy AF, Slawson DC, Bennett JH. Becoming an information master: a guidebook to the medical information jungle. J Fam Pract. 1994;39(5):489-499.

Ebell MH, Barry HC, Slawson DC, et al. Finding POEMs in the medical literature. J Fam Pract. 1999;48(5):350-355.

Badran H, Pluye P, Grad R. When educational material is delivered: a mixed methods content validation study of the Information Assessment Method. JMIR Med Educ. 2017;3(1):e4.

CMA Joule medical librarians. Linking POEMs with overuse alerts from Choosing Wisely Canada. Canadian Medical Association. January 11, 2023. Accessed January 26, 2023. https://www.cma.ca/clinical-blog/linking-poems-overuse-alerts-choosing-wisely-canada

Byrne P, Demasi M, Jones M, et al. Evaluating the association between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction and relative and absolute effects of statin treatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis [published correction appears in JAMA Intern Med . 2022; 182(5): 579]. JAMA Intern Med. 2022;182(5):474-481.

LeBoff MS, Chou SH, Ratliff KA, et al. Supplemental vitamin D and incident fractures in midlife and older adults. N Engl J Med. 2022;387(4):299-309.

U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Final recommendation statement. Vitamin D deficiency in adults: screening. April 13, 2021. Accessed January 28, 2023. https://uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/vitamin-d-deficiency-screening

Lewis G, Marston L, Duffy L, et al. Maintenance or discontinuation of antidepressants in primary care. N Engl J Med. 2021;385(14):1257-1267.

Henssler J, Alexander D, Schwarzer G, et al. Combining antidepressants vs antidepressant monotherapy for treatment of patients with acute depression: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA Psychiatry. 2022;79(4):300-312.

Chawla N, Anothaisintawee T, Charoenrungrueangchai K, et al. Drug treatment for panic disorder with or without agoraphobia: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. BMJ. 2022;376:e066084.

De Crescenzo F, D'Alò GL, Ostinelli EG, et al. Comparative effects of pharmacological interventions for the acute and long-term management of insomnia disorder in adults: a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Lancet. 2022;400(10347):170-184.

Mysliwiec V, Martin JL, Ulmer CS, et al. The management of chronic insomnia disorder and obstructive sleep apnea: synopsis of the 2019 U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and U.S. Department of Defense clinical practice guidelines [published correction appears in Ann Intern Med . 2021; 174(4): 584]. Ann Intern Med. 2020;172(5):325-336.

Qaseem A, Kansagara D, Forciea MA, et al. Management of chronic insomnia disorder in adults: a clinical practice guideline from the American College of Physicians. Ann Intern Med. 2016;165(2):125-133.

Hoge EA, Bui E, Mete M, et al. Mindfulness-based stress reduction vs escitalopram for the treatment of adults with anxiety disorders: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA Psychiatry. 2023;80(1):13-21.

Imai H, Tajika A, Chen P, et al. Psychological therapies versus pharmacological interventions for panic disorder with or without agoraphobia in adults. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2016(10):CD011170.

Papi A, Chipps BE, Beasley R, et al. Albuterol-budesonide fixed-dose combination rescue inhaler for asthma. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(22):2071-2083.

Israel E, Cardet JC, Carroll JK, et al. Reliever-triggered inhaled glucocorticoid in Black and Latinx adults with asthma. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(16):1505-1518.

Bryant-Stephens T. Breaking the skin color barriers for asthma medications. It's not black, brown, or white. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(16):1574-1575.

Abrahami D, McDonald EG, Schnitzer ME, et al. Proton pump inhibitors and risk of gastric cancer: population-based cohort study. Gut. 2022;71(1):16-24.

Seo SI, Park CH, You SC, et al. Association between proton pump inhibitor use and gastric cancer: a population-based cohort study using two different types of nationwide databases in Korea. Gut. 2021;70(11):2066-2075.

Katz PO, Dunbar KB, Schnoll-Sussman FH, et al. ACG clinical guideline for the diagnosis and management of gastroesophageal reflux disease. Am J Gastroenterol. 2022;117(1):27-56.

Vasant DH, Paine PA, Black CJ, et al. British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines on the management of irritable bowel syndrome. Gut. 2021;70(7):1214-1240.

Veronese N, Noale M, Sinclair A, et al. Risk of progression to diabetes and mortality in older people with prediabetes: The English longitudinal study on ageing. Age Ageing. 2022;51(2):afab222.

Goldberg RB, Orchard TJ, Crandall JP, et al. Effects of long-term metformin and lifestyle interventions on cardiovascular events in the Diabetes Prevention Program and its outcome study. Circulation. 2022;145(22):1632-1641.

Bouillet B, Tscherter P, Vaillard L, et al. Frequent and severe hypoglycaemia detected with continuous glucose monitoring in older institutionalised patients with diabetes. Age Ageing. 2021;50(6):2088-2093.

Tesfaye S, Sloan G, Petrie J, et al. Comparison of amitriptyline supplemented with pregabalin, pregabalin supplemented with amitriptyline, and duloxetine supplemented with pregabalin for the treatment of diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (OPTION-DM): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised crossover trial [published correction appears in Lancet . 2022; 400(10355): 810]. Lancet. 2022;400(10353):680-690.

Andreadis K, Chan E, Park M, et al. Imprecision and preferences in interpretation of verbal probabilities in health: a systematic review. J Gen Intern Med. 2021;36(12):3820-3829.

Baker TB, Piper ME, Smith SS, et al. Effects of combined varenicline with nicotine patch and of extended treatment duration on smoking cessation: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA. 2021;326(15):1485-1493.

Balachandran P, Elsohly M, Hill KP. Cannabidiol interactions with medications, illicit substances, and alcohol: a comprehensive review. J Gen Intern Med. 2021;36(7):2074-2084.

Irizarry E, Restivo A, Salama M, et al. A randomized controlled trial of ibuprofen versus ketorolac versus diclofenac for acute, nonradicular low back pain. Acad Emerg Med. 2021;28(11):1228-1235.

Stuart B, Maund E, Wilcox C, et al. Topical preparations for the treatment of mild-to-moderate acne vulgaris: systematic review and network meta-analysis. Br J Dermatol. 2021;185(3):512-525.

Leone FT, Zhang Y, Evers-Casey S, et al. Initiating pharmacologic treatment in tobacco-dependent adults. An official American Thoracic Society clinical practice guideline. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2020;202(2):e5-e31.

Arbel R, Hammerman A, Sergienko R, et al. BNT162b2 vaccine booster and mortality due to Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2021;385(26):2413-2420.

Magen O, Waxman JG, Makov-Assif M, et al. Fourth dose of BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine in a nationwide setting. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(17):1603-1614.

Talic S, Shah S, Wild H, et al. Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis [published correction appears in BMJ . 2021; 375: n2997]. BMJ. 2021;375:e068302.

Altarawneh HN, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, et al. Effects of previous infection and vaccination on symptomatic omicron infections. N Engl J Med. 2022;387(1):21-34.

Goldberg Y, Mandel M, Bar-On YM, et al. Protection and waning of natural and hybrid immunity to SARS-CoV-2. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(23):2201-2212.

Husby A, Hansen JV, Fosbøl E, et al. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and myocarditis or myopericarditis: population based cohort study. BMJ. 2021;375:e068665.

Davidson KW, Barry MJ, Mangione CM, et al. Aspirin use to prevent cardiovascular disease: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation statement. JAMA. 2022;327(16):1577-1584.

Moran GM, Bakhai C, Song SH, et al. Type 2 diabetes: summary of updated NICE guidance. BMJ. 2022;377:o775.

National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Depression in adults. June 29, 2022. Accessed January 28, 2023. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng222

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Heat maps are presented of the cumulative incidence rate of mass shootings and injuries and deaths from mass shootings by state, 2014 to 2022. Subcategories were gang or drug involvement, armed robbery, carjacking, murder or suicide, and home invasion for crime-related events; domestic violence, family annihilation, kidnapping, or involving a child for domestic violence–related events; bar or club and house party for social-related events; and terrorism, spree shooting, hate crimes, and others for other events.

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Barnard LM , Wright-Kelly E , Brooks-Russell A , Betz ME. Characterization of Mass Shootings by State, 2014-2022. JAMA Netw Open. 2023;6(7):e2325868. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.25868

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Characterization of Mass Shootings by State, 2014-2022

  • 1 Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora
  • 2 Injury and Violence Prevention Center, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora
  • 3 Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora

The US has more than 10 times the number of mass shooting events as other developed countries. 1 Mass shootings in the US have increased in frequency, with more than half occurring since the year 2000. 2 These events have a direct toll on individuals injured or killed, as well as a psychological impact on families, friends, and society. 3

Little research has examined the types and distribution of mass shooting events across the US. 4 A geographic analysis by type may inform if specific events have disproportionately occurred in particular states or regions of the US. This may generate hypotheses about the contextual (policy, environmental, or sociocultural) factors that may be associated with the distribution of types of mass shooting events and may suggest recommendations for tailored prevention. The purpose of this study was to examine state rates of mass shooting event types and total injuries and deaths in the US.

The Gun Violence Archive, a database mostly used for research, 5 defines a mass shooting as an incident with 4 or more individuals shot or killed, not including the shooter. This case series used data from a 9-year period (January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2022) to calculate cumulative incidence rates of mass shooting event types based on incident characteristics ( Figure ) and the total number of individuals injured and killed per 1 000 000 people. We also calculated state-level counts and rates for the most common event types. Rates were calculated using population estimates from the US census from 2014 to 2022 and displayed on state-level heat maps.

From 2014 to 2022, there were 4011 mass shootings, ranging from zero events in Hawaii and North Dakota to 414 events in Illinois. For these 9 years, one-third (27.3%) were social-related mass shootings, 15.8% were crime related, 11.1% were domestic violence (DV) related, 1.4% were school or work related, and 52.0% were not a part of these categories ( Table ). There was a median of 45 mass shootings per state for all states and the District of Columbia (mean, 78.6). A total of 21 006 people were killed or injured ( Table ).

The rate of mass shootings per 1 000 000 people was highest in the District of Columbia (10.4 shootings), followed by much lower rates in Louisiana (4.2 mass shootings) and Illinois (3.6 mass shootings), the states with the next 2 highest rates ( Table ). Geographical analysis of mass shooting events showed clustering around the southeast region of the US and Illinois ( Figure ). Crime-, social-, and DV-related mass shootings followed a similar pattern, while mass shootings that were not part of these categories were more evenly distributed across the US.

This case series examined the number and rate of mass shooting events (including injuries and deaths) by type of event and US state differences. While results demonstrated state-level differences in rates of mass shootings, findings were limited given use of 1 database with a broad definition of mass shootings. Definitions that include only deaths or events not associated with crime or only indiscriminate mass public shootings may produce different results. 6 Future research should assess socioeconomic, political, cultural, and demographic factors that may be associated with incidents of mass shootings across states and address how state policies, contextual factors, and social determinants of health may be associated with mass shooting incident types.

This study of mass shootings examined the burden of and geographic differences between types of mass shootings in the US. The most common specific event type was crime-related mass shootings. Crime-, social-, and DV-related mass shootings followed a similar pattern, with clustering around the southwest. These findings should be used to inform research and state-level prevention strategies.

Accepted for Publication: June 14, 2023.

Published: July 26, 2023. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.25868

Open Access: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY License . © 2023 Barnard LM et al. JAMA Network Open .

Corresponding Author: Leslie M. Barnard, MPH, Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, 12605 E 16th Ave, Aurora, CO 80045 ( [email protected] ).

Author Contributions: Ms Barnard had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

Concept and design: All authors.

Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: Barnard, Wright-Kelly.

Drafting of the manuscript: Barnard, Wright-Kelly, Brooks-Russell.

Critical review of the manuscript for important intellectual content : Wright-Kelly, Brooks-Russell, Betz.

Statistical analysis: Barnard.

Administrative, technical, or material support: All authors.

Supervision: Wright-Kelly, Brooks-Russell, Betz.

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Ms Barnard and Drs Wright-Kelly, Brooks-Russell, and Betz reported receiving grants from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment during the conduct of the study. No other disclosures were reported.

Data Sharing Statement: See the Supplement .

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Serum Cholesterol Levels and Risk of Cardiovascular Death: A Systematic Review and a Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Eujene jung.

1 Department of Emergency Medicine, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju 61469, Korea; moc.liamg@enejuehunc

So Yeon Kong

2 Laerdal Medical, 4002 Stavanger, Norway; [email protected]

Young Sun Ro

3 Department of Emergency Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul 03080, Korea; moc.liamg@1enejuehunc

Hyun Ho Ryu

4 Department of Emergency Medicine, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61469, Korea; [email protected]

Sang Do Shin

Associated data.

Not applicable.

Introduction: Numerous studies have demonstrated that abnormal levels of cholesterol are associated with a high attributable risk for the occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there has been no comprehensive study to investigate the relationship between serum cholesterol levels and cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis. Methods: A systematic literature search of key databases, including EMBASE and MEDLINE, was conducted and included all the published epidemiological studies that contained estimates of the hazard ratios (HR) of serum cholesterol of CVD mortality. Data extraction, eligibility, and assessment of the risk of bias were assessed by two reviewers independently. All published risk estimates were hazard ratios and analyzed by quantitative meta-analysis using a random-effects model and dose-response relationships of serum cholesterol with CVD mortality. Results: A total of 14 independent reports, including 1,055,309 subjects and 9457 events, were analyzed. The pooled HR (95% CI) was 1.27 (95% CI, 1.19–1.36) for total cholesterol, 1.21 (95% CI, 1.09–1.35) for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.50–0.72) for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). We observed a linear association between serum cholesterol (TC, HDL-C) levels and CVD mortality in this meta-analysis. Conclusions: Serum total cholesterol and LDL-C level is associated with increased CVD mortality, but HDL-C level is inversely associated with CVD mortality.

1. Introduction

Globally, about 17 million people die from cardiovascular disease (CVD) every year, accounting for 31% of all deaths worldwide [ 1 ]. Age-adjusted CVD mortality rates are decreasing in developed countries, but cardiovascular-associated disease remains the leading cause of death due to population aging [ 2 ].

A worldwide study demonstrated that among all modifiable risk factors of CV disease, abnormal serum levels of cholesterol were associated with the highest attributable risk for the occurrence of CVD, especially ischemic heart disease [ 3 , 4 ].

High serum total cholesterol (TC) is regarded by many as the main cause of coronary atherosclerosis, and it has been well established that elevated TC is associated with an increased risk of CVD [ 5 ]. A lipoprotein is a biochemical assembly whose primary function is to transport fat molecules in water, as in blood plasma or other extracellular fluids; there are High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and Very low-density of lipoprotein (VLDL) [ 6 ]. LDL-C has been identified as the main risk factor for CVD by many epidemiological and interventional studies because LDL-C plays a major role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis [ 7 , 8 ]. Recently, LDL-C has generally replaced TC as the primary lipid measurement for predicting cardiovascular risk. In contrast, a broad body of evidence shows that HDL-C is associated with the risk for vascular complications inversely and is considered an anti-atherosclerotic lipoprotein. There is increasing awareness of the importance of HDL-C in predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease independently of LDL-C levels [ 9 ].

Numerous studies have reported the relationship between serum cholesterol and risks of cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease; however, there has been no comprehensive study to investigate the correlation between the level of serum cholesterol and cardiovascular mortality to our knowledge [ 5 , 9 ]. Additionally, the risk associated with each cholesterol level is uncertain. Understanding the relationship between the level of serum cholesterol and cardiovascular mortality is important for guiding treatment goals for cholesterol levels.

Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis to determine whether total cholesterol, LDL-C, and HDL-C are risk factors for CVD mortality.

2. Materials and Methods

This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis guidelines [ 10 ].

2.1. Search Strategy and Selection Criteria

In January 2021, we searched the databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE for cohort studies with human subjects between 2000 and 2020 that had assessed the association between cholesterol and risk of cardiovascular mortality. The computer-based searches focused on the two themes of Medical Subject Headings terms and related exploded versions. The first theme, cholesterol, combined exploded version of the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and LDL-cholesterol. The second theme was heart arrest, cardiovascular death, cardiovascular mortality, cardiac death, or cardiac mortality. The two themes were combined using the Boolean operator “and”.

(Cholesterol or HDL-cholesterol or LDL-cholesterol) and (heart arrest or cardiovascular death or cardiovascular mortality or cardiac death or cardiac mortality).

2.2. Study Selection

Studies that met the following criteria were included in this analysis. (1) The study was a prospective cohort study, (2) the exposure was total serum cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and LDL-cholesterol levels measured before the cardiovascular event, and (3) the outcome was cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, including coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. We excluded studies if they did not meet these criteria.

2.3. Data Extraction and Quality Assessment

One author (E.J.) evaluated the eligibility of the study and data extraction; another author (S.K) reaffirmed the data availability independently. The following data were extracted from each study: year of publication, name of the first author, study design, country of study setting, age, time of follow-up, number of CVD and CHD deaths, number of participants/person-year of follow-up, variable adjusted for in the multivariable analysis, and hazard ratios (HRs). We assessed the methodological quality of the included studies and the risk of bias and advised using elements of the Cochrane collaboration tool to assess the risk of bias [ 11 ]. The domains used in the present systematic review belonged to randomization and allocation concealment (selection bias), blinding (performance and detection bias), loss to follow-up, and adherence to the intention to treat principle (attrition bias) [ 12 ].

2.4. Data Synthesis and Analysis

To analyze the serum level of total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and risk of CVD death, we used semi-parametric and parametric methods. For the semi-parametric method, we used Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Software 3.0 (Biostat) to analyze the data. In our analysis, we synthesized HRs and 95% CIs to compare the extreme categories of serum cholesterol (highest vs. lowest, as defined within each study). We used the final results of the studies after adjustment for potential confounders from a multivariable model. For the parametric method, a dose-response meta-analysis was performed. The dose-response relationship was estimated by using generalized least-squares trend estimation, according to the methods developed by Greenland and Longnecker [ 13 ]. To perform a dose-response meta-analysis, we assigned the midpoint between the upper and lower limits of each category as average consumption. If the upper and lower limits of the category were not provided, both limits were assumed to have the same amplitude as the closet category (the lowest boundary was assumed to be zero, the highest boundary had the same amplitude as the preceding category) [ 13 , 14 ]. The open-source statistical software environment R package (“dosresmeta”) was used for the dose-response analysis.

Forest plots were represented to visually evaluate the HRs and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CIs) throughout the studies. Statistical heterogeneity among the studies was quantified using the Cochrane Q statistic ( p < 0.10 was considered indicative of statistically significant heterogeneity) and the I 2 statistic (ranges from 0% to 100% with lower values representing less heterogeneity) [ 15 ]. The I 2 statistic was derived from the Q statistic ([ Q − df / Q ] × 100) and provides a measure of the overall variation attributable to between-study heterogeneity [ 16 ]. If no or low heterogeneity ( p > 0.10) was detected, the HRs were pooled using the fixed-effect model or the DerSimonian and Laird inverse-variance-weighted random-effects models [ 17 ]. The funnel plot asymmetry test for measuring publication bias was not used because there were less than 10 studies included in each analysis [ 18 ].

Analyses were conducted using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Software 3.0 (Biostat) and Review Manager Version 5.3 (Cochrane Collaboration). The study is reported according to the PRISMA checklist [ 19 ].

3.1. Literature Search

The process of study selection is provided in Figure 1 .

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Object name is ijerph-19-08272-g001.jpg

Flowchart of the study selection.

The literature search identified 881 studies from PUBMED and 5528 studies from EMBASE. We excluded 690 duplicates, and 5579 articles were deleted after assessing the title or abstract. After reviewing the full articles, another 126 papers were excluded, resulting in a meta-analysis of 14 articles. A manual search of the reference lists of these articles could not find any eligible studies.

3.2. Study Characteristics

A total of 14 prospective cohort studies were included in our systematic review and meta-analysis, involving 1,055,309 participants with 9457 CVD deaths or CHD death cases. Of these, 4 studies were conducted in Japanese populations [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 ], 2 studies in Swedish populations [ 24 , 25 ], 2 studies in Finnish populations [ 26 , 27 ] and 1 study each of Norwegian [ 28 ], German [ 29 ], Italian [ 30 ], Taiwanese, [ 31 ] Icelandic [ 32 ], and Israeli [ 33 ] populations. With the exception of 3 studies [ 22 , 27 , 29 ], 11 studies had a follow-up duration of more than 10 years [ 20 , 21 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 28 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 ] ( Table 1 ). Cohort studies were assessed by Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing the risk of bias [ 34 ] ( Figure 2 ).

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Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing the risk of bias.

Characteristics of included cohort studies of serum cholesterol level and CVD mortality.

Study
(Author, Year)
CountryDuration of Follow-Up (Years)Age (Years)Total N (Cases)SettingClinical EndpointsEffect Size
(HR, 95% CI)
Ingar Holme
(2011) [ ]
Norway334514,846
(1655)
Oslo studyCHD mortality<TC>: 1.24
(1.19–1.29)
Johan S
(2006) [ ]
Sweden32.750
70
2841 (1078)
168 (302)
Uppsala CountyCVD mortality<TC>
age 50: 1.16
(1.07–1.26)
age 70: 0.96
(0.80–1.16)
Michihiro. S
(2015) [ ]
Japan1556.973,916
(770)
EPOCH-JAPAN groupCHD mortality<TC>: 1.26
(1.16–1.34)
Nicu Oksala
(2012) [ ]
Finland7.830–655956
(55)
Health 2000 surveySCD<TC>: 1.29
(0.89–1.88)
<LDL>: 1.28
(0.97–1.70)
<HDL>: 0.65
(0.47–0.91)
Kilander. L
(2001) [ ]
Sweden25.7502301
(301)
CVD mortality<TC>: 1.27
(1.15–1.41)
Silbernagel. G
(2013) [ ]
Germany8.962.63141
(590)
LURIC studyCVD mortality<HDL>: 0.37 (0.18–0.74)
Tomonori. O
(2005) [ ]
Japan9.652.87175
(174)
The Nippon General DATA 90 research groupCVD mortality<HDL>: 0.27
(0.14–0.52)
Kunutsor. S. K
(2017) [ ]
Finland2342–612616
(228)
KIHD risk factor studySudden death<LDL>: 1.43
(0.93–2.19)
<HDL>: 0.52
(0.34–0.78)
Tikhonoff. V
(2005) [ ]
Italy1273.83120
(327)
CVD mortality<LDL>: 1.06
(0.94–1.18)
Wei-Syun. H
(2017) [ ]
Taiwan8.8Over 20381,963
(1894)
The MJ health groupCVD mortality<TC>: 1.68
(1.38–2.04)
Thorgeirsson. G
(2005) [ ]
Iceland25M: 66.8
W: 65.8
8806 (137)
9435 (44)
The Reykjavik studyCVD mortality<TC>
M: 1.41
(1.21–1.63)
W: 1.42
(1.14–1.76)
Gil Harari
(2017) [ ]
Israel2242.14832
(172)
CORDISCVD mortality<TC>: 3.58
(2.49–5.14)
<LDL>: 1.82 (1.15–2.89)
<HDL>: 0.90
(0.51–1.59)
Aya Hirata
(2016) [ ]
Japan1852.57019
(450)
NIPPON DATA studyCVD mortality<HDL>: 0.64
(0.42–0.96)
Aya Hirata
(2018) [ ]
Japan12.157.1525,661 (1280)EPOCH-JAPAN groupCVD mortality<HDL>: 0.56
(0.39–0.82)

CHD = coronary heart disease; CVD = cardiovascular disease; HR = hazard ratio; TC = Total cholesterol; HDL = high density lipoprotein; LDL = low density lipoprotein.

3.3. Total Cholesterol

High versus low.

Eight studies compared the highest level with the lowest (or referent) level categories of total serum cholesterol [ 23 , 24 , 25 , 27 , 28 , 31 , 32 , 33 ] ( Figure 3 ). In 1 study [ 25 ] the HR was divided by dividing the age group of 50 years and 70 years, and in another study [ 32 ], male and female groups were divided and analyzed, which was considered as a separate study in our study. The study outcomes of 6 studies were CVD mortality [ 24 , 25 , 27 , 31 , 32 , 33 ], and 2 studies were CHD mortality [ 23 , 28 ]. The overall results were pooled in each study using a fixed-effects model first and a random effect model when the heterogeneity was moderate or higher. The summary HR was 1.27 (95% CI, 1.19–1.36; Figure 3 ), with moderate heterogeneity ( I 2 = 64.1%; p < 0.01).

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Object name is ijerph-19-08272-g003.jpg

Forest plot for pooled HRs and 95% CIs of CVD mortality for highest versus lowest categories of Serum Total cholesterol (TC) level [ 23 , 24 , 25 , 27 , 28 , 31 , 32 , 33 ]. The overall effect was obtained from a random-effect model.

3.4. Dose-Response Analysis

We found a significant log-linear dose-response association between serum total cholesterol level and CVD death ( p < 0.01) and moderate heterogeneity across studies (Q = 8.95, I 2 = 66.5%) ( Figure 4 ).

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc.
Object name is ijerph-19-08272-g004.jpg

Dose-response meta-analysis between serum total cholesterol level and the hazard ratio of CVD mortality. The solid line represents point estimates of the association of serum total cholesterol and CVD mortality with the use of restricted cubic splines models, and the dashed lines indicate 95% CIs.

3.5. High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol

Seven studies compared the lowest level with the highest (or referent) level categories of HDL-C [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 26 , 27 , 29 , 33 ]. The outcomes of 6 studies were CVD death [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 27 , 29 , 33 ] and 1 study was sudden cardiac death [ 26 ]. The overall results were pooled in each study using a fixed-effects model first and a random effect model when the heterogeneity was moderate or higher. The summary HR was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.45–0.70; Figure 5 ), with moderate heterogeneity ( I 2 = 40.0%; p < 0.01) ( Figure 5 ).

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc.
Object name is ijerph-19-08272-g005.jpg

Forest plot for pooled HRs and 95% CIs of CVD mortality for lowest versus highest categories of serum High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HLD-C) level [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 26 , 27 , 29 , 33 ]. The overall effect was obtained from a random-effect model.

3.6. Dose-Response Analysis

We found a significant linear dose-response association between serum HDL-C level and CVD death ( p < 0.01) and moderate heterogeneity across studies (Q = 7.15, I 2 = 44%) ( Figure 6 ).

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc.
Object name is ijerph-19-08272-g006.jpg

Dose-response meta-analysis between serum High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level and the hazard ratio of CVD mortality. The solid line represents point estimates of the association of serum HDL cholesterol and CVD mortality with the use of restricted cubic splines models, and the dashed lines indicate 95% CIs.

3.7. Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol

Four studies compared the highest level with the lowest (or referent) level categories of LDL-C [ 26 , 27 , 30 , 33 ].The outcomes of 3 studies were CVD death [ 27 , 30 , 33 ], and 1 study was sudden cardiac death [ 26 ], which were aggregated together using a fixed-effect model for each study. The summary HR was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.11–1.41; Figure 7 ), without evidence of heterogeneity ( I 2 = 0%; p = 0.66) ( Figure 7 ).

An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc.
Object name is ijerph-19-08272-g007.jpg

Forest plot for pooled HRs and 95% CIs of CVD mortality for highest versus lowest categories of serum Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level [ 26 , 27 , 30 , 33 ]. The overall effect was obtained from a random-effect model.

4. Discussion

Assessments of the relationship between serum cholesterol (TC, LDL-C, and HDL-C) and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD mortality have been studied for several decades. However, there is an absence of a meta-analysis on CVD mortality and serum levels of cholesterol, which is routinely referred to as a causal factor in producing CVD and is a target of medical treatment of CVD [ 35 ].

We conducted a meta-analysis of cohort studies to evaluate the relationship between serum cholesterol (TC, LDL-C, and HDL-c) and CVD mortality. The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that TC and LDL-C are associated with an increased risk of CVD mortality (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.16–1.32/1.21, 95% CI 1.09–1.35, respectively), and HDL-C is inversely associated with a risk of CVD mortality. In a dose-response analysis, the relationship between cholesterol (TC, HDL-C) and CVD mortality was linearly associated. Importantly, only population-based studies were included in our study, so these results provide the best available estimates of cholesterol risk in the general population.

Elevated TC is a well-documented and established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. One large meta-analysis based on observational studies found that high levels of serum TC were associated with an increased coronary heart disease mortality rate [ 36 ]. The Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT) found an association between high serum TC levels and the incidence of ischemic stroke [ 37 ]. In an observational study of patients with CHD, TC levels were associated with the risk of ischemic stroke (RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20–1.70), whereas another study in patients without CHD did not show an association with serum lipids [ 38 ]. However, several studies revealed that elevated TC is not associated with CVD, and TC is not the most accurate predictor of future CVD [ 39 , 40 ]. Thus, in recent studies about serum cholesterol, the interest in the role of LDL-C is increasing. There are many studies that show that LDL-C, one of the cholesterols constituting TC, causes atherosclerosis-related disease. However, according to a comprehensive review of the association of LDL-C with atherosclerosis, some studies have shown a lack of an association between LDL-C and severity of atherosclerosis, and in a study of 304 women, there was no association between LDL-C and coronary calcification [ 41 , 42 ].

Despite several conflicting studies, total cholesterol and LDL-C are key components of cardiovascular risk prediction models that are widely used in clinical practice to estimate an individual’s risk of CVD and to guide clinical decision-making regarding the initiation of statin therapy and other lipid-level regulating drugs [ 43 ]. In studies of the relationship between cholesterol and CVD occurrence, treatment with TC or LDL-C lowering drugs reduces CVD mortality [ 44 , 45 ]. In our meta-analysis, TC and LDL-C are risk factors for CVD death, which supports previous studies suggesting that maintaining adequate levels of cholesterol is important in lowering CVD death risk [ 46 ].

On the contrary, we observed that high levels of HDL-C were significantly associated with decreased risk of CVD mortality. The first compelling study of the inverse association between HDL-C and CHD was from the Framingham Heart Study [ 47 ]. This observational study formed the basis for the widely acknowledged concept of HDL-C as the good cholesterol and led to the idea that HDL-C might have properties that protect against atherosclerosis, and intervention to increase HDL-C would reduce CHD risk (the HDL-C hypothesis). This hypothesis was supported by a series of animal studies and observation studies after the Framingham reports [ 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 ]. However, some studies suggested that very high HDL-C levels are no longer effectively protective, which is removing cholesterol from the periphery. Also, the cholesterol content of HDL does not represent many important HDL functions that are related to CVD risk, such as anti-inflammatory, antiapoptotic, antioxidant, and vasorelaxant properties.

Previous studies have shown that levels and normal ranges of cholesterol vary by age, gender, and race, accordingly, and the level of cholesterol as a risk factor for disease may be different. Studies included in our meta-analysis targeted patients of various ages. In one study, they studied patients aged 50 and 70 separately [ 25 ]; in other studies, only the age range of the patients was presented [ 26 , 27 , 31 ]. In the remaining studies [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 32 , 33 ], the mean age of the subjects was presented, and the mean age ranged from 42.1 [ 33 ] to 73.8 [ 30 ] years old. The gender of the study subjects showed various ratios in each study. In one study, males and females were analyzed separately [ 32 ]. Five studies were conducted on Asians [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 31 ], and the rest were on Europeans. In addition, the observation period of the cohort varied from 7.8 [ 27 ] to 33 [ 28 ] years. Two studies divided into two groups according to age and gender did not coincide with each other and were regarded as two different studies [ 25 , 32 ].

As we know, this is the first meta-analysis that explains the relationship between serum cholesterol and CVD mortality. The analysis shows that TC and LDL-C are associated with increased CVD mortality, whereas HDL-C is inversely associated. Our study may be useful in determining the therapeutic targets of serum cholesterol. Furthermore, there are several studies showing different ideal serum levels of cholesterol by age and gender, so a subgroup meta-analysis of these studies would provide useful information. The main results of the analysis were CVD mortality, and the study used it when CHD mortality was presented as a study outcome [ 23 , 28 ]. One study, in which the study outcome was sudden death, was included in the final meta-analysis [ 26 ].

In our study, TC showed a linear relationship with CVD mortality. This will serve as a theoretical basis for suggesting target levels of TC to reduce CVD mortality, and further studies will be needed to obtain accurate target levels of cholesterol according to patient characteristics in the future.

Limitations of the Study

We are aware of several potential limitations. First, measured LDL-C also comprises the fraction that is transported with lipoprotein(a); we did not take this fact into consideration. Second, studies with meaningful results may be more likely to be published, and are preferentially published in English journals [ 52 ]. Third, although adjusted estimates were reported in general, the observational design had its inherent weak point that any association may be because of the presence of inapposite measured or unmeasured residual possible confounding variables. Fourth, as noted above, the risk of bias in index studies meant that evidence quality in relation to study outcomes was categorized as very low. Fifth, our decision to meta-analysis data may be questioned, given the marked heterogeneity between each study. However, we noted that overall statistical heterogeneity for each meta-analysis, as measured by the I 2 statistic, was moderate, and we chose a random-effect model to account for differences in effect size between each study [ 53 ]. Sixth, all studies included in our meta-analysis provided no information about lipid-level regulating medication that affected overall study results. Seventh, in some studies, different HR values according to age and sex were reported, but our study could not report it because the number of studies was too small, and the heterogeneity between studies was high. Lastly, in general, the serum LDL-C level is not measured directly but instead is estimated from its cholesterol concentration. The LDL-C-related studies included in our meta-analysis did not address the method of direct or indirect calculating of LDL-C levels, which may have affected the outcomes.

5. Conclusions

In our meta-analysis, high serum levels of TC and LDL-C increased the CVD mortality above the reference level, and low HDL-C was associated with an increased CVD mortality. We believe that this study will be helpful in setting appropriate cholesterol management targets, and personal characteristics, such as age and gender, are thought to influence the ideal serum cholesterol level, so further research is needed.

Funding Statement

This research was funded by Chonnam National University Hospital grant number BCRI-19018.

Author Contributions

Formal analysis, E.J. and Y.S.R.; Investigation, S.D.S. and S.Y.K.; Methodology, H.H.R.; Resources, E.J. and Y.S.R.; Supervision, Y.S.R. and S.D.S.; Writing—original draft, E.J.; Writing—review and editing, H.H.R. and S.D.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Informed consent statement, data availability statement, conflicts of interest.

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The company had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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Ideas Made to Matter

Federal spending was responsible for the 2022 spike in inflation, research shows

Betsy Vereckey

Jul 17, 2024

Inflation is difficult to control. Its cause is often even harder to pinpoint.  

In attempting to understand the 2022 spike in inflation that followed the pandemic, some policymakers — up to and including President Joe Biden — blamed shortages in the supply chain. But a new study shows that federal spending was the cause — significantly so. 

“Our research shows mathematically that the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain,” said Mark Kritzman, a senior lecturer at MIT Sloan. 

In writing “ The Determinants of Inflation ,” Kritzman and colleagues from State Street developed a new methodology that revealed how certain drivers of inflation changed in importance over time from 1960 to 2022. 

In doing so, they found that federal spending was two to three times more important than any other factor causing inflation during 2022. 

Specifically, their results showed that:

  • 42% of inflation could be attributed to government spending.
  • 17% could be attributed to inflation expectations — that is, the rate at which consumers expect prices to continue to increase.
  • 14% could be blamed on high interest rates.

Kritzman said that using government stimulus money to help the economy rebound during the pandemic made sense, given the unprecedented circumstances. “People really didn’t know if we were going to have a 1930s-type depression, so the government erred on the side of more stimulus than less stimulus,” he said. 

“I don’t judge that to be a bad thing to have done, but  it did cause this big spike in inflation ,” Kritzman said. “What was surprising is not just that [the driver] was federal spending but that it was so overwhelmingly federal spending.”

Methodology

The authors arrived at their conclusion by using  the Mahalanobis distance statistic , which has been used in a range of projects, from measuring turbulence in the financial markets to detecting anomalies in self-driving vehicles. 

In their paper, researchers first used a hidden Markov model  to identify four regimes of shifting inflation: stable, rising steady, rising volatile, and disinflation.

Then they used the Mahalanobis distance to figure out how eight different economic variables caused the economy to shift between those regimes. The economic variables the authors looked at were producer prices, wages/salaries, personal consumption, inflation expectations, interest rates, the yield curve, the money supply, and federal spending. 

Finally, by applying an algorithm to the data from 1960 to 2022, they were able to see how inflation drivers had changed in importance over time. This enabled them to predict the likely path of future inflation — a capability that could potentially be of  help to policymakers and investors alike.

The results dispel the notion that the supply chain could be blamed for the 2022 spike in inflation, Kritzman said. 

“The narrative at the time was that the cause of inflation was interruptions to the supply chain because of COVID-19,” Kritzman said. “But that didn’t show up in producer prices. In other words, if supplies became scarce, then the prices of those supplies would go up, which we don’t see in our results at that point in time.”

Guidance for policymakers

The researchers’ findings indicate that the government and the Fed sometimes operate at cross purposes, Kritzman said. When the federal government overstimulates the economy, the Federal Reserve has to delay lowering interest rates. 

“The more overstimulation there is, the more hawkish the Fed has to be to keep inflation under control,” Kritzman said. 

Taking the same approach that the researchers did, the Federal Reserve might be able to gain a deeper look at “the dynamics that are going on” — not just that inflation is up or down, he said. Instead, it offers insight into how the drivers of inflation change in importance through time. 

“I think that the Fed would be well advised to take this methodology and make it operational in how they monitor inflation and other things that they’re interested in,” Kritzman said. 

Guidance for investors 

Related articles.

The research also has takeaways for investors, especially in terms of portfolio construction. It can help them project the path of inflation because the methodology provides a historical record of how factors changed in importance throughout history and will likely do so again. 

“There are sequences that sort of repeat themselves,” Kritzman said. For example, inflation expectations often follow federal spending as the main driver of inflation. “Once you have inflation, then inflation’s persistent and you expect more inflation,” Kritzman said. 

Inflation can greatly affect the returns of a portfolio. If inflation is staying stubbornly high, that increases the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates or at least keep them high, which hurts asset values, Kritzman said. 

“The way you should be managing your assets is not to just find the portfolio that’s optimal on average across all periods, but to the extent you can detect regime shifts — i.e., stable inflation to rising steady — you can come up with portfolios that are more tailored to these different regimes,” he said. 

William Kinlaw, Michael Metcalfe, and David Turkington, all of State Street, are Kritzman’s co-authors on the paper. They hope to update the research in the future to account for the current state of inflation.

Read next: Is this new forecasting model is better than machine learning?

Susan Collins

research article 2022

Chemical Society Reviews

Rechargeable alkali metal–chlorine batteries: advances, challenges, and future perspectives.

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* Corresponding authors

a Department of Applied Chemistry, School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Hefei National Research Center for Physical Sciences at the Microscale, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026, China E-mail: [email protected]

The emergence of Li–SOCl 2 batteries in the 1970s as a high-energy-density battery system sparked considerable interest among researchers. However, limitations in the primary cell characteristics have restricted their potential for widespread adoption in today's sustainable society. Encouragingly, recent developments in alkali/alkaline-earth metal–Cl 2 (AM–Cl 2 ) batteries have shown impressive reversibility with high specific capacity and cycle performance, revitalizing the potential of SOCl 2 batteries and becoming a promising technology surpassing current lithium-ion batteries. In this review, the emerging AM–Cl 2 batteries are comprehensively summarized for the first time. The development history and advantages of Li–SOCl 2 batteries are traced, followed by the critical working mechanisms for achieving high rechargeability. The design concepts of electrodes and electrolytes for AM–Cl 2 batteries as well as key characterization techniques are also demonstrated. Furthermore, the current challenges and corresponding strategies, as well as future directions regarding the battery are systematically discussed. This review aims to deepen the understanding of the state-of-the-art AM–Cl 2 battery technology and accelerate the development of practical AM–Cl 2 batteries for next-generation high-energy storage systems.

Graphical abstract: Rechargeable alkali metal–chlorine batteries: advances, challenges, and future perspectives

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research article 2022

Z. Xie, L. Sun, M. Sajid, Y. Feng, Z. Lv and W. Chen, Chem. Soc. Rev. , 2024, Advance Article , DOI: 10.1039/D4CS00202D

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Stocks could face the steepest correction since the 2022 bear market as earnings kick off, analysts say. Here's what investors should watch for.

  • Second quarter earnings season could trigger the most painful stock correction since 2022, according to NDR.
  • The research firm warned of a shift from accelerating to decelerating growth in heading into 2025.
  • "Another high beat rate may be required to justify the rally," analysts said.

Insider Today

Earnings season has officially kicked off this week, and it could bring the most painful correction for stock prices since the 2022 bear market.

That's according to Ned Davis Research, which offered a preview of what will matter most during the deluge of second-quarter earnings results over the next few weeks.

"The biggest risk could be a shift from accelerating to decelerating year/year growth toward the end of 2024 and into 2025," NDR strategist Ed Clissold said in a Thursday note.

That means that as strong as profit results might be this quarter, the future success of the stock market will largely hinge on company outlooks for the second half of the year.

Here's what investors should look out for during the second quarter earnings season, according to NDR.

Second-half growth estimates

The typical pathway of Wall Street earnings growth estimates is for them to be overly optimistic at the start of the year, only to slowly be revised lower towards the end of the year.

Therefore, it's not a matter of whether analysts will cut their second-half earnings growth estimates but rather by how much they will cut.

"Last year, the growth rate was revised down 4.8% points, much less than the long-term average of 8.1%. It is one of the reasons why the S&P 500 surged 24.2%. So far in 2024, consensus has only been revised down 1.3% points, again one of the reasons for the 18.1% year-to-date gain," Clissold said.

Current analyst projections suggest S&P 500 earnings growth of 5.7% in the second quarter, 19.2% in the third quarter, and 19.6% in the fourth quarter.

And those rosy growth estimates could ultimately be setting the stock market up for failure, especially considering expectations for a slowdown in the US economy's growth rate during the second half of this year.

Consensus earnings beats

Since the start of the now 18-month-old bull market, at least 78% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded consensus estimates, which is historically high.

That trend of breadth within company earnings beats will have to continue if the next inevitable stock market correction is to be pushed further down the road.

"Another high beat rate may be required to justify the rally," Clissold said. "Management teams have guided the Q2 year/year growth rate down to 5.7% from 7.0% at the end of May. The lowered bar makes a high beat rate more attainable."

Accelerating growth

"The concept that earnings growth is good for stocks seems intuitive. It is true, but with an important caveat. Investors look ahead, and they often view extremely strong year/year earnings growth as unsustainable," Clissold said.

With earnings growth surging in recent quarters, how sustainable that growth rate is remains a top question for investors, as decelerating growth is rarely rewarded with higher stock prices.

"Earnings are in the sharp acceleration phase, and consensus estimates are calling for them to remain there through Q3. During Q2 earnings season, watch for whether expected year/year EPS acceleration comes to fruition and for guidance on how long it can continue," Clissold said.

The Magnificent 7 stocks

Since the start of this bull market, much of the S&P 500's earnings growth has been driven by a handful of mega-cap tech companies like Nvidia , Amazon , and Meta Platforms.

"Five of the seven grew by at least 20% versus Q1 2023, and three grew by at least 100%," Clissold said of the mega-cap tech's earnings growth.

As strong as that growth has been, it sets a high bar for these companies to continue to post fast enough growth that impresses investors.

"The hurdle is high. Consensus is calling for five members of the Mag 7 to post slower growth rates in Q2 than in Q1. Even strong beats may not be enough for Mag 7 growth rates to continue to accelerate," Clissold said.

The other 493 stocks

For the bull market to continue, the other 493 S&P 500 stocks need to start pulling their weight in terms of earnings growth, and this earnings season could be the quarter it finally happens.

The 493 companies are expected to grow earnings by 1.1% in the second quarter, compared to first-quarter expectations of a 5.7% decline. These companies ultimately posted first-quarter earnings growth of 0.3%.

"Analysts are banking the Mag 7 to continue to drive earnings growth, but the rest of the market to participate more. The bar is noticeably lower outside the mega-cap favorites," Clissold said.

research article 2022

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  • Published: 14 December 2021

COVID-19 in 2022: controlling the pandemic is within our grasp

  • Maria D. Van Kerkhove   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6135-0018 1  

Nature Medicine volume  27 ,  page 2070 ( 2021 ) Cite this article

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Vaccine inequity, inconsistent public health measures and new variants such as Omicron are prolonging the COVID-19 pandemic, but controlling the virus remains possible.

As we enter the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic, public health leaders must take stock of where we are and how we can end the crippling hold that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has over us all. All pandemics end. The COVID-19 pandemic will end, but it is not over yet. Already, we have endured two years of missed opportunities, missed education, missed connections with family and loved ones. Without action, 2022 could be the same. But it doesn’t have to be.

research article 2022

The virus will continue to affect our lives and livelihoods unless the global community collectively addresses inequitable access to vaccines, therapeutic agents and diagnostics, as well as the fact that we are giving the SARS-CoV-2 virus the room it needs to thrive through uneven and inconsistent national policies to reduce transmission, some of which are undermined by division and politicization. At the same time, governments must invest in preparedness, prevention and in science.

One of the greatest scientific achievements of the pandemic has been the speed of the development of several safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines. Robust data continue to show that COVID-19 vaccines are very effective at preventing people from getting seriously ill and dying. This protection seems to be maintained against the more transmissible Delta variant and over time .

However, we continue to see persistent inequities in access to COVID-19 vaccines. Of the more than 7 billion doses administered so far, less than 3% have been in countries on the African continent. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended that those at higher risk of severe disease and health workers be prioritised for COVID-19 vaccination in all countries. The number of doses administered by the end of September 2021 was enough to have covered 40% of the population in all countries. The failure to provide access of sufficient doses of vaccines to low- and middle-income countries is not only unethical, but it is epidemiologically and economically unwise, and is prolonging the pandemic.

Unfortunately, vaccines alone will not end this pandemic, in part because of more transmissible new variants and also because vaccines are primarily designed to protect against severe disease and death. The more the virus is allowed to circulate, the more opportunity the virus has to evolve. Throughout the course of the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has shown its ability to become better adapted to the human host, with variants Alpha and Delta demonstrating enhanced transmissibility. One of the biggest unknowns in 2022 will be how this evolution continues. Delta continues to evolve, and the Omicron variant has shown that the virus will continue to adapt, and such variants may be more transmissible, cause more or less severe disease, and/or develop properties of immune escape .

In 2022, epidemiological and genomic surveillance efforts should be expanded in all countries to detect SARS-CoV-2 variants and ensure that robust testing systems are linked to public health action. As we track the evolution of the virus, the WHO and partners will continue to closely assess and monitor the effect of virus evolution on public health and medical countermeasures, including diagnostics, therapeutic agents and COVID-19 vaccines .

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the WHO has recommended comprehensive measures to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Current vaccines by themselves are insufficient to stem transmission, and so increases in cases should be expected whenever public health and social measures are lifted, irrespective of vaccination coverage. In 2022, much of the world will need to continue with effective measures as we bring transmission under control. This includes, for example, wearing well-fitting masks, hand hygiene, physical distancing, improving ventilation of indoor spaces, avoiding crowded spaces and being supported to stay home if unwell.

It is essential to continue to improve national and sub-national public health infrastructure to better target and tailor local responses. Although the seasonal patterns of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus have been disrupted owing to the interventions for COVID-19, they have not disappeared from circulation, and governments should prepare for them to circulate again.

Preparedness for the next epidemic or pandemic pathogen does not begin when the current emergency is over. It begins now, with investing in integrated respiratory disease surveillance, a well-protected work force, early clinical care, access to health care, better personal protective equipment, further research and development for diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines and addressing long-standing inequalities. This will not only help to control COVID-19, but also ensure that we are in a better position to confront the next outbreak.

In 2022, with increasing population level immunity, there will be substantial reductions in the number of people experiencing severe disease and death. This will alleviate some of the strain COVID-19 has exercised on even the most robust health-care systems. However, it is likely that there will be continued surges in transmission among unprotected individuals and strain on health-care systems in areas where vaccine coverage is low. The risk of more transmissible variants or variants with immune escape properties means that governments and communities must continue efforts to reduce transmission and protect the vulnerable, while slowly and carefully reopening our societies. Controlling this virus was always in our control, it remains in our control.

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Van Kerkhove, M.D. COVID-19 in 2022: controlling the pandemic is within our grasp. Nat Med 27 , 2070 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01616-y

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New York's viral new trash cans unveiled nearly 2 years after a $1.6 million contract with consultancy giant McKinsey

  • New York's viral new trash bins were unveiled following a $1.6 million contract with McKinsey.
  • Mayor Eric Adams revealed the new bins as part of his "Trash Revolution," launched Monday.
  • New York is embracing containerization — putting your garbage bag in a bin, not just on the street.

Insider Today

New York's much-discussed new trash cans have been shown off nearly two years after the city spent $1.6 million to contract with consulting giant McKinsey in 2022.

On Monday, NYC Mayor Eric Adams revealed the wheeled bin alongside NYC Department of Sanitation Commissioner Jessica Tisch , who symbolically put a black bag from his official residence, Gracie Mansion, into the container.

Video of the launch, which saw Adams wheeling a bin onto the street while Jay-Z and Alicia Keys' "Empire State of Mind" played, quickly went viral, drawing memes and ridicule from citizens of cities that have had similar bins for decades.

Time to Get (EVEN MORE) Stuff Clean! Join us right now in Manhattan as we kick off the next phase in our trash revolution: https://t.co/AEDRQNXmUT — NYC Mayor's Office (@NYCMayorsOffice) July 8, 2024

Under the new rules, which come into force on November 12, 2024, all properties with one to nine residential units will be required by law to use one of the latch-lidded waste collectors, now available to purchase online from $46.

The newly introduced requirement seeks to minimize the number of sidewalk rats . It isn't known exactly how many rats are in NYC, but a 2014 study suggested there were around two million, and a pest control firm in 2023 estimated there were close to three million rats in NYC.

Adams said the program was part of his administration's "Trash Revolution," which aims to clean up the city's streets. Officials estimate New Yorkers produce around 14 billion pounds of trash each year. But with the new rule directed at removing about 70% of this, curbside garbage piles are hoped to become a problem of the past.

Plans for the new bins follow the city's work with consulting giant McKinsey & Company, which was drafted in to help the city assess how to contain its waste. A Sanitation Department official told New York Streetsblog at the time that the project was worth around $4 million, but a spokesperson for the department told Business Insider $1.6 million was paid out to McKinsey for the contract.

According to an October 2022 New York Times article, McKinsey was scheduled to spend 20 weeks working with the Sanitation Department to determine what sort of bins would suit different streetscapes, what they should look like, and which vendors to use. The department told Business Insider that work on the contract concluded in April 2023.

The goal was to design a program capable of combating New York's decadeslong garbage problem, looking at waste collection methods used in urban areas around the world and focusing on containerization — or, in simple terms, putting trash bags in bins rather than on the street.

A New York City Sanitation Department spokesperson told Business Insider, "DSNY's limited work with McKinsey a couple of years ago is not directly related to this week's wheelie bin announcement."

Related stories

"McKinsey did not determine or recommend policy — they did math around the fact that the City was interested in waste containerization, a strategy the Adams Administration is now aggressively pursuing," the spokesperson added. The bin design was the result of work conducted by city employees, another DSNY spokesperson told BI.

The solution decided upon is similar to systems already used in cities like Barcelona, where fleets of colored, uniform bins are often found on residential blocks.

The bin project is far from the firm's first consultation in New York. The Office of the New York State Comptroller shows that McKinsey has worked on at least 10 other projects with the state.

McKinsey declined to comment when contacted by Business Insider.

Correction: July 11, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated McKinsey's role in working with the New York City Sanitation Department. The department said that it hired McKinsey to help inform its efforts at waste management but that the decision to pursue the wheeled bins unveiled Monday was the city's and not a McKinsey recommendation. The story was also updated with a statement from a New York City Sanitation Department spokesperson and with new information from the department that the contract with McKinsey, originally said to be as high as $4 million, was ultimately worth $1.6 million.

research article 2022

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