equity research report tesla

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Tesla (TSLA)

(delayed data from nsdq).

$205.75 USD

-3.46 (-1.65%)

Updated Aug 28, 2024 04:00 PM ET

After-Market: $203.01 -2.74 (-1.33%) 5:54 PM ET

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TSLA 205.75 -3.46(-1.65%)

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Tesla (tsla) up 3.4% since last earnings report: can it continue.

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Tesla (TSLA). Shares have added about 3.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tesla due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Tesla Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates

Tesla posted second-quarter earnings per share of 52 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 62 cents and also declined from the year-ago figure of 91 cents. Total revenues of $25.5 billion topped the consensus mark of $25.1 billion and rose 2% year over year.

Key Takeaways

Tesla’s second-quarter production totaled 410,831 units (386,576 Model 3/Y and 24,255 other models), which declined 14% year over year and missed our estimate of 498,522 units. The company delivered 443,956 vehicles, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5% and lagging our estimate of 473,740 units. The Model 3/Y registered deliveries of 422,405 vehicles, marking a year-over-year decline of 5% and missing our projection of 447,483 units.

Total automotive revenues of $19.88 billion were down 7% year over year and missed our estimate of $22.37 billion. The reported figure also included $890 million from the sale of regulatory credits for EVs, which skyrocketed 215.6% year over year. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $18.53 billion, missing our projection of $21.34 billion.

Automotive gross profit came in at $3.7 billion. Automotive gross margin came in at 18.5%, which fell from 19.2% reported in the second quarter of 2023 but topped our forecast of 18.3%. Tesla’s operating margin declined 330 basis points year over year to 6.3% in the quarter under discussion and also lagged our estimate of 7.5%.

Energy Generation and Storage revenues came in at $3 billion in the second quarter of 2024, which was higher than the year-ago quarter’s figure of $1.51 billion and topped our estimate of $1.91 billion. Notably, energy storage deployments came in at 9.4 GWh, surpassing our projection of 6.88 GWh.

Services and Other revenues were $2.61 billion, which increased 21% year over year and beat our estimate of $2.27 billion.

Tesla had cash/cash equivalents/investments of $30.72 billion as of Jun 30, 2024, compared with $29.1 billion as of Dec 31, 2023. Long-term debt and finance leases, net of the current portion, totaled $5.48 billion, up from $2.86 billion as of Dec 31, 2023.

Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $3.61 billion in second-quarter 2024. Capital expenditure totaled $2.27 billion in the quarter under review. Tesla registered a free cash flow of $1.34 billion during the reported quarter, up from a free cash flow of $1 billion generated in the year-ago period.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

Currently, Tesla has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Tesla has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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